Gulf of Mexico may take a turn with tropical activity
The Gulf of Mexico has been quiet since Category 4 Hurricane Idalia in late August, but AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching the warm body of water for tropical activity before the middle of October. Regardless, moisture is likely to gather in the region, and that may lead to drenching rain and stormy conditions for some areas.
In addition to Hurricane Idalia, there have only been Tropical Storm Arlene in early June and Tropical Storm Harold in mid-August in the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season.
The key to what goes on in the Gulf of Mexico next week is likely to be the behavior of tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico by Tuesday as a Category 2 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph, or 153-176 km/h). There is also another tropical feature beside Lidia, Tropical Storm Max, which is expected to bring rain and wind to southwestern Mexico in the upcoming days.
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This image of the eastern Pacific, Mexico and Central America shows Tropical Storm Lidia (left of center) and Tropical Storm Max (right of center). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite, Monday, Oct. 9, 2023) |
Some of the moisture and energy from Lidia and Tropical Storm Max may transfer to the Gulf of Mexico during the middle to the latter part of this week.
Storm development in the Gulf of Mexico next week may be either tropical, subtropical or non-tropical. A subtropical or hybrid storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.
The main reason for concern about a tropical or non-tropical storm, or perhaps something in between, is that a fully tropical system, such as a tropical storm or hurricane, has much more potential to bring damaging winds, flooding rain and coastal flooding when compared to a cool-season non-tropical storm.
A cool season storm tends to have much less intense winds and moderate rainfall and is generally more manageable from a preparation and disruption standpoint. A hurricane may lead to a significant risk to lives and property and might even warrant evacuations in extreme cases where a major storm surge is forecast.
At this point, there is no data suggesting a hurricane will form in the Gulf, but there may be a lower-end tropical storm, subtropical storm or cool-season storm. AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to closely monitor the situation.
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"There is a medium risk of tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico spanning through midweek," AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
Regardless, there will be a broad area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms that is likely to coagulate over the Gulf through the week. Showers and thunderstorms will begin early week in the southwestern end of the Gulf, known as the Bay of Campeche, on the tail end of a cold front that is dropping in.
As this week progresses, depending on the nature of the low-pressure area that develops, the clouds and areas of rain may expand to the northern Gulf coast and then perhaps by late week across Florida.
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Even if a non-tropical storm takes shape, there is the likelihood of building seas and rough surf.
Forecasters recommend that travel, fishing, shipping and petroleum interests over the Gulf, as well as residents and officials along the Gulf coast, monitor the situation.
The Gulf of Mexico, as well as the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic, is a zone where there is a higher potential for tropical storms to form in a general sense during October, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said earlier this autumn.
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"Waters typically remain sufficiently warm for tropical development in this area, and there tends to be a front in the vicinity that may help a tropical system to form in the first place," Rayno explained.
Water temperatures are generally in the low to mid-80s in the Gulf of Mexico and are likely to hover around these levels this week. The critical minimum temperature for full tropical storm formation is near or just under 80 degrees.
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Many meteorologists at AccuWeather believe that there will be one significant deterrent against a fully tropical system from forming this week in the Gulf -- wind shear.
Wind shear is associated with stiff breezes in the middle layer of the atmosphere that may prevent a tropical system from forming or cause the upper portion of a developed storm to be blown away. When this happens, the storm may become lopsided and struggle to strengthen. However, in a few cases, when a tropical storm moves with the flow of the wind shear, the disruptive effect may be significantly lower.
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"Along with the wind shear issue will be the approach of another cold front late week that may slice into the region," DaSilva explained.
Once that front slices through the area and cooler and less humid air filters across the Gulf by next weekend, it will effectively end the development cycle, DaSilva said. Because of this, the tropical development window is relatively short.
Should some rain reach as far north as the Mississippi Delta region with a non-tropical system, it may not be enough to significantly impact low water levels and saltwater intrusion over the lower end of the waterway. However, a slow-moving low-end tropical system could provide temporary relief, should that system travel far enough to the north.
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There will likely be another non-tropical storm that slices from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley this week.
"That non-tropical system may bring soaking rain to part of the Mississippi watershed," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "But, if the weather pattern then goes back to dry, which it is likely to do, any water level rise is likely to be only slight and temporary."
Appreciable rain 500 to 1,000 miles upstream may take many weeks to reach the Mississippi Delta region and could pencil out if no other rain falls on the trip southward.
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