Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies GYP Properties Limited (SGX:AWS) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is GYP Properties's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2019 GYP Properties had debt of S$90.7m, up from S$72.0m in one year. However, it does have S$3.03m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$87.6m.
How Strong Is GYP Properties's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, GYP Properties had liabilities of S$22.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of S$90.7m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had S$3.03m in cash and S$2.51m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by S$108.1m.
This deficit casts a shadow over the S$37.1m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, GYP Properties would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.88 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 20.7 hit our confidence in GYP Properties like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, GYP Properties saw its EBIT tank 33% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since GYP Properties will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, GYP Properties burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
To be frank both GYP Properties's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its interest cover also fails to instill confidence. It looks to us like GYP Properties carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. Even though GYP Properties lost money on the bottom line, its positive EBIT suggests the business itself has potential. So you might want to check outhow earnings have been trending over the last few years.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.