If You Had Bought Bulletin Resources (ASX:BNR) Shares A Year Ago You'd Have Made 12%

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One way to deal with stock volatility is to ensure you have a properly diverse portfolio. Of course, in an ideal world, all your stocks would beat the market. Bulletin Resources Limited (ASX:BNR) has done well over the last year, with the stock price up 12% beating the market return of 12% (not including dividends). Zooming out, the stock is actually down 9.7% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Bulletin Resources

Bulletin Resources hasn't yet reported any revenue, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). It seems likely some shareholders believe that Bulletin Resources will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing.

When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2019, Bulletin Resources had cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$2.0m. That's not too bad but management may have to think about raising capital or taking on debt, unless the company is close to breaking even. Given the share price has increased by a solid 157% in the last year , its fair to say investors remain excited about the future, despite the potential need for cash. You can see in the image below, how Bulletin Resources's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values). You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Bulletin Resources's cash levels have changed over time.

ASX:BNR Historical Debt, February 25th 2020
ASX:BNR Historical Debt, February 25th 2020

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, many of the best investors like to check if insiders have been buying shares. It's usually a positive if they have, as it may indicate they see value in the stock. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Bulletin Resources's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Bulletin Resources hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 12% exceeds its share price return of 12%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

Bulletin Resources shareholders are up 12% for the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 45% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Bulletin Resources (3 don't sit too well with us) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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