Hagerstown, Chambersburg areas see November unemployment drop

Franklin County in November reported the lowest unemployment rate since April 2006, according to Pennsylvania labor stats.

Meanwhile, Maryland statistics show Washington County's November unemployment rate was lower than last month, but it was a tenth of a percentage point higher than the state average for the month.

The statistics arrive as the U.S. Labor Department said hiring slowed modestly in December as employers added 223,000 jobs to close out an otherwise booming year, possibly foreshadowing the deeper pullback and recession that many economists expect in 2023.

What are the November numbers for Hagerstown, Chambersburg?

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Chambersburg-Waynesboro Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Franklin County, was down a tenth of a percentage point over the month to 3.3% in November, according to the Pa. Department of Labor & Industry. The statewide rate and the national rate were both unchanged at 4% and 3.7%, respectively.

The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate, the only rate available as of Friday, for the Borough of Chambersburg was 2.9%. That's down from 3.3% in October, and 4.6% in November 2021.

For the Borough of Waynesboro, the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 2.4%. That's unchanged from October, but down from 3.8% in November 2021.

Washington County reported a November seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 3.6%, down from 4% in October and 4.5% in November 2021, according to the Maryland Department of Labor. The statewide rate was 3.5%, which was down from 4.1% in October and 5% in November 2021.

In Hagerstown, the number was 4.3%, down from 5.1% in October, and 5.5% in November a year ago.

The news for December, not yet available at the county and local level, found the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, matching a 50-year low, the Labor Department said Friday.

How many jobs did the U.S. add last year?

For all of 2022, the U.S. added 4.5 million jobs, second most behind the 6.7 million gained the previous year, as the nation continued to heal from record job losses in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Job gains for October and November were revised down by a total of 28,000. October’s was revised from 284,000 to 263,000 and November’s, from 263,000 to 256,000, painting a slightly weaker portrait of job growth in the fall.

"We think substantially slower payroll growth is coming very soon," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.

What the Fed really wants: Putting the brakes on runaway wage growth could help avoid a recession in 2023, but it won't be easy

The report featured some good news for a Federal Reserve determined to lower inflation. Last month, average hourly wages rose 9 cents to $32.82, pushing down the annual increase to a still elevated 4.6% from 4.8% the previous month. The Fed is looking for a pullback in pay increases to beat back inflation that hit a 40-year high last year and pause its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes that could tip the economy into recession.

Also, the share of adults working or looking for a job edged up to 62.32% from 62.2%, still leaving it well below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. A larger labor supply puts downward pressure on wages as employers don't need to compete as fervently for job candidates.

Leisure and hospitality, the industry hit hardest by the pandemic, led the job gains with 67,000. Health care added 55,000 jobs; construction, 28,000; and social assistance, 20,000.

Gains in other sectors were weak, with manufacturing adding 8,000 jobs; retail, 9,000; and transportation and warehousing, 5,000.

Temporary help services shed 35,000 jobs, its fifth straight monthly decline. That could foreshadow deeper job losses across the broader economy in the months ahead since employers often cut temporary workers before laying off permanent staffers.

Another hint of a coming slowdown: Americans worked an average of 34.3 hours last month, marking the second straight monthly decline and the lowest level since April 2020. Employers typically work existing employees fewer hours before cutting jobs and hiring.

Have all jobs lost to COVID been recovered?

By August, the economy recovered all 22 million wiped out in the health crisis. But payrolls are still a couple of million jobs shy of where they would be if the pandemic hadn’t happened, based on population growth. Leisure and hospitality, the sector hit hardest by the crisis, remains nearly 1 million jobs below its pre-COVID level.

Monthly job growth slowed through 2022, from a blockbuster pace of 457,000 in the first seven months of the year to a still solid 260,000 since July. Hiring has softened since all 22 million lost jobs were recovered. Also, high inflation – and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes to tame it – have started damping economic activity and the labor market.

U.S. economy recession in 2023?

Most economists expect the U.S. to slip into a mild recession this year as the Fed’s rate increases take a growing toll on spending and growth. Such forecasts have further weakened consumer and business confidence.

Yet despite the hurdles, the labor market has been remarkably resilient, repeatedly defying forecasts for a more dramatic slowdown. To cope with soaring inflation, many households have drawn from the $2.6 trillion in additional savings they amassed from government stimulus checks and reduced spending during COVID.

Is a 2023 recession coming?: Job growth likely to slow sharply, companies brace for impact

What to avoid, what to buy?: How to financially prepare for a recession.

Is there still a labor shortage?

And since millions of Americans retired early or took a hiatus during COVID, the resulting labor shortages left employers struggling to find workers and reluctant to announce layoffs despite the dire forecasts. Initial jobless claims, a gauge of layoffs, are still low, though Amazon announced 18,000 job cuts on Thursday, the latest in a huge wave of tech company layoffs this year.

Many continue to hire despite the cloud of uncertainty over the economy.

Judy Briggs, owner of a 1-800-GOT-JUNK franchise in Hopkinton, Massachusetts, says sales increased 3% in 2022, down from about 15% the past several years, and she expects a similar modest gain this year. The steep housing downturn means fewer people are moving, softening demand for a service that hauls away items such as old furniture, appliances, tires.

But she says, “People (including renters) are still moving and still getting rid of junk,” she says.

Also, in light of the labor shortages, she wants to have enough staff to handle employee turnover and COVID-related absences.

She plans to add about five workers to her permanent staff of 35, the same as last year.

“It’s hard to find employees these days,” she says.

Don't forget about your 401(k): As job switchers chase higher wages, they may be leaving money behind

Is your state one of them?: Minimum wage is going up in 23 states as $15 an hour gains steam. Is your state one of them?

Contributing: Paul Davidson of USA Today, Elisabeth Buchwald in New York.

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Mail: December jobs report: 223,000 jobs added, but what's ahead?