Hail Mary? Hail yes. Breaking down the Dolphins’ playoff odds after Bills’ collapse

Adam H. Beasley
·2 min read

The math is easy for the Miami Dolphins from here on out:

If they win their games, they’ll win the division.

Going seven more without a loss is a long shot, of course. But not as unlikely as the way the Bills lost Sunday to open the door for their AFC East rivals.

After going ahead on a late Josh Allen touchdown, the Bills lost to the Cardinals on a Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins Sunday — just minutes after the Dolphins beat the Chargers for their fifth straight victory.

So here’s how the AFC East standings look through Week 10:

Bills 7-3.

Dolphins 6-3.

Buffalo has its bye next Sunday. Miami plays every week from here on out.

“I’m glad the NFC West could do us a favor there,” said Dolphins center Ted Karras. “I was waiting on one of them. But those are good games. Obviously we’re in the hunt and we got to keep executing and winning games and doing what we’re doing.”

Added linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel: “Just knowing all the hard work that we put in, that this was bound to happen, and this doesn’t just happen by chance.

The Dolphins and Bills could play the game of the NFL season in Week 17. After winning in Miami in Week 2, the Bills will host the Dolphins two days after New Years. That game could very well determine the divisional title — and if that’s the case, it would almost certainly be flexed into prime time on NBC.

The stats are promising for the Dolphins, who have won six of their last seven games, including three straight with Tua Tagovailoa as starter.

The Dolphins have the NFL’s 10th easiest remaining schedule (their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .468). Buffalo’s remaining opponents were .500 through the 4 p.m. games, which is 16th-hardest in the NFL.

Still, even the computers aren’t huge believers in Miami. Five Thirty Eight projects the Dolphins will finish 9-7 — which means losses in four of their last seven games — while the website predicts the Bills will finish 11-5 and win the AFC East.

In fact, despite having the harder remaining schedule and a far worse point differential (plus-69 for Miami, plus-7 for Buffalo), Five Thirty Eight has the Bills at 77 percent to win the division, compared to just 20 percent for the Dolphins.

The Bills are a whopping 87 percent to make the playoffs; the Dolphins have essentially a 50-50 shot.