Haley and DeSantis won big endorsements. Most likely GOP caucusgoers say it doesn't matter

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Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis in front of a cheering Des Moines crowd in November.

Reynolds, who is popular among likely Republican caucusgoers, praised DeSantis’ leadership in Florida and his family values, and she told the audience that he’s someone "who, most importantly, can win."

But since the endorsement, DeSantis has made little headway among Iowa Republicans likely to caucus Jan. 15, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

DeSantis is the first-choice candidate for 19% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That’s an increase of 3 percentage points from his standing in an October Iowa Poll, before he added endorsements from Reynolds and later, Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent evangelical leader in Iowa.

“It’s hard for you to say that these things are helping,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said of their endorsements. “Now, who knows what his numbers would have been if he didn’t rack up these endorsements. ... But the data we have in front of us suggests that it’s not created the momentum that the campaign, I’m sure, had in mind.”

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, who has attacked Reynolds, has gained momentum in Iowa. Trump is the first choice for 51% of likely Republican caucusgoers in the new Iowa Poll. He gained 8 percentage points since the October poll.

When Trump brought up Reynolds' endorsement of DeSantis at an early December campaign stop in Ankeny, the crowd booed her.

"I don't care if she endorses me or not," Trump said. "It's not going to make any difference, because the only endorsement that matters is the Trump endorsement."

How much do endorsements matter to likely Iowa caucusgoers?

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 2-7 by Selzer & Co., asked 502 likely Republican caucusgoers how they felt about three high-profile endorsements — from Reynolds, Vander Plaats and Americans for Prosperity Action, the political network founded by conservative billionaire Charles Koch. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Reynolds’ endorsement of DeSantis has had the most sway: 31% of likely Republican caucusgoers say her endorsement makes them more likely to support DeSantis, while 14% say they are less likely to support him.

Most likely Republican caucusgoers are fans of Reynolds: 78% feel favorably toward the governor, including 46% who feel “very favorable.”

Yet a majority of respondents — 54% — say Reynolds’ endorsement of DeSantis does not matter to them.

More: Iowa political leaders are endorsing DeSantis. Trump still thinks the caucuses are a lock

Ryan Von Lienen, a 43-year-old poll respondent and carpenter from Vinton, says Trump is his first choice for the GOP nomination.

Von Lienen said he wasn’t moved by endorsements, instead selecting candidates based on “gut feeling.” He said Trump has “accomplished great things.”

“I love Kim,” Von Lienen said. “However, I don’t think she should have backed Ron DeSantis.”

Koch network endorsement doesn’t boost Nikki Haley

Americans for Prosperity Action announced its endorsement of Haley on Nov. 28.

Americans for Prosperity Action has been active in Iowa for more than a decade. The conservative group has nine fulltime paid staffers in the state and employs a network of dozens of door-knockers.

One Republican strategist told the Register that the group’s endorsement could be "a game changer" for Haley.

However, most likely Republican caucusgoers say they aren’t swayed by the group’s support for Haley, the December poll found, with 71% saying the endorsement does not matter.

Fourteen percent say they would be more likely to support Haley, and 13% say they would be less likely to support her because of the endorsement.

Carolyn Lathrop, an 81-year-old poll respondent from Cedar Rapids, changed her party registration to Democrat when Trump ran for office in 2016. She’s registered as a Republican again, and hoping Haley can lead the party in a different direction.

“I think it’s time for a woman, and I believe that she is strong enough – stronger than most men,” Lathrop said.

Lathrop said she was “pleased” by the Americans for Prosperity endorsement but she had already decided to support Haley before the group announced.

“I don’t pay much attention to endorsements, really,” Lathrop told the Register, saying she prefers to “make up my own mind.”

Endorsement of evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats has little sway

Longtime Iowa evangelical leader Vander Plaats boasts an impressive record for caucus picks.

He endorsed the winner of the last three contested GOP caucuses: Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016. None of them went on to win the Republican nomination.

Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of the Family Leader, endorsed DeSantis in November. He told the Register that DeSantis is “exceptionally accomplished,” and has “proven he can win in the demographics we need to win.”

But the Iowa Poll suggests Vander Plaats doesn’t have the reach or influence to help DeSantis surge.

Vander Plaats isn’t particularly well-known or well-liked among likely Republican caucusgoers: 45% say they do not know enough about him to say whether they like him or not. His favorability is underwater, with 23% feeling favorable and 31% feeling unfavorable.

Nearly three in four likely Republican caucusgoers, 73%, say Vander Plaats’ endorsement of DeSantis does not matter to them. Just 13% say Vander Plaats’ endorsement has made them more likely to support DeSantis, and 12% say it has made them less likely to support DeSantis.

Meanwhile, the evangelical vote is still firmly in Trump’s favor, with 51% choosing him as their top candidate for 2024. DeSantis is the first-choice candidate for 26% of evangelicals in Iowa.

Brianne Pfannestiel and Stephen Gruber-Miller contributed reporting.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 2-7, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 502 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,733 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 502 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll shows if caucusgoers care about DeSantis, Haley endorsements