If Haley drops out, Trump secures the nomination — and saves millions

For weeks, Donald Trump has centered his message at campaign rallies and on social media on one thing: Nikki Haley, his lone challenger remaining, is a “traitor” who should exit the race.

Haley’s departure would help Trump for a number of reasons. It would effectively end the primary, securing the nomination for Trump. It would allow Trump to turn his attention to the November general election, a probable rematch with President Joe Biden. And it would be a financial victory — it would save the Trump campaign millions of dollars.

Heading into 2024, Republicans face financial troubles. Trump’s campaign ran a deficit in 2023, shelling out over $50 million of donor funds on his own legal expenses. Should he win the nomination, he’ll receive an instant boost, both financially and organizationally, by collaborating with the Republican National Committee, the GOP’s governing body. But the RNC is in financial woes, too — in 2023, the RNC had its worst fundraising year since 2013.

Meanwhile, Democrats — by sidestepping a costly and messy primary, and effectively coronating Biden as their nominee — are fundraising up a storm. The DNC reported more cash on hand at the close of 2023 than any other year preceding a presidential election.

The RNC has attempted damage-control by accusing Democrats of spending huge sums of money on ineffective messaging. RNC spokesperson Anna Kelly told The Hill that Democrats are “lighting money on fire with tone-deaf ads that are failing to cover for Biden’s record of failure or boost his abysmal approval ratings.”

To Democrats, it’s Republicans who are “lighting money on fire” — by prolonging a Trump-Haley primary. “While the GOP lights money on fire fighting among themselves, Democrats are unified and making the early investments we need to send President Biden and Vice President Harris back to the White House in 2024,” DNC national press secretary Sarafina Chitika said.

The pricetag on an elongated primary is steep for Trump. During calendar year 2023, the Trump campaign spent $46.5 million; while the Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent over $93 million. By the Iowa caucuses in mid-January, the Trump campaign and his aligned PACs had already poured over $54 million into campaign ads alone, according to an NPR analysis.

All this coincided with a huge fundraising surge for Trump: in the second half of 2023, the MAGA Inc. super PAC raked in over $46 million, including from over a dozen donors who pitched in $1 million or more.

But instead of spending the war chest on a presumed general election rematch with Biden, Trump’s expenditures have two main ends: securing the Republican nomination against Haley, and funding his legal expenses. Trump faces over 90 criminal charges and has assembled a team of lawyers — the “equivalent of a boutique law firm,” The Washington Post posited — with the express purpose of defending him.

According to an analysis by The Economist, in the final three months of 2023, more than 50 cents of every dollar donated to Trump went toward his legal defense.

With Haley still in the race, Trump has to fight for donations from many of the same Republican donors that Haley is targeting. As recently as late January, representatives from the Haley and Trump campaigns gave back-to-back presentations to a group of GOP-leaning megadonors, trying to win their support. While Haley has received some donations from top Democratic donors, like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, it is likely that a significant portion of her Republican donor base would flip to Trump, should the former president go on to win the party’s nomination. A number of Republican or Trump-friendly megadonors have announced support for Haley in recent weeks, like Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

If Trump were to win the GOP nomination, he no longer has to spar with a fellow Republican for GOP donors. But he faces another challenge: collaborating with a cash-strapped RNC, dealing with a leadership challenge and a major shortage of funds.

Related

• Ronna McDaniel might step down from the RNC after South Carolina primary elections

• Report: Trump wants daughter-in-law as RNC co-chair

In 2023, the RNC had its worst fundraising year in a decade, bringing in just over $87 million. By comparison, in 2019 — the last year prior to a general election — the RNC reported $241 million in contributions.

The RNC reported only $8 million in cash on hand at the close of 2023, and nearly $2 million in debt. Not since 2014 has the RNC closed a calendar year with such little cash on hand. By comparison, the DNC has over $21 million on hand, a record for a year preceding a general election.

To assuage its financial woes, the RNC reportedly authorized a line of credit during its winter meetings in Las Vegas this month. But much of the RNC’s struggles appear to be its own doing: According to an investigation by RedState of spending between October and November 2023, the RNC spent over $600,000 on supplies, floral arrangements and limousine services. By comparison, the DNC spent nearly $2 million on voter file maintenance and direct-voter texting services; the RNC spent just over $125,000 on these things.

Should Trump win the Republican nomination, his campaign would work in tandem with the RNC through November. RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said the two organizations would “merge” and work “together to win the White House.”

But there are longstanding tensions between Trump and the RNC, culminating in Trump encouraging McDaniel — the longest-serving RNC chair in modern history — to resign from her post. She will reportedly step down after the South Carolina primary in late February. Trump’s pick for her replacement is North Carolina GOP chair Michael Whatley, and as co-chair, Trump wants his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump.

“I don’t think (Trump’s relationship with the RNC) is as bad as some people make it out to be,” Chris Carr, a former political director for both the RNC and the Trump campaign, said. “When you’re a nominee, you do need the national party.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story listed incorrect cash on hand figures for 2019 and 2015 for the RNC and DNC. The accompanying graphic has also been corrected.