It’s Haley vs. Trump for one month in SC. Here’s the state of the Republican presidential race

Inside of the Charleston Area Convention Center, the Nikki Haley campaign packed a ballroom. In the hallway, the campaign had a merchandise stand and volunteers with clipboards looking to recruit additional people to help Haley’s presidential efforts.

Outside of the building, supporters of former President Donald Trump waived flags and signs to greet Haley supporters as they entered.

The Haley rally capped off the first day of month-long campaign ahead of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary, which could ultimately launch a candidate to the nomination.

Trump’s victory in New Hampshire and former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley’s decision to stay in the race sets up more than 30 days on intense campaigning and one-on-one match-up for South Carolina Republicans.

It’s also a dynamic of the former ambassador to the United Nations directly taking on her former boss in a state where a favorite daughter is competing against a widely-popular former president.

During the next month, expect the state to be flooded with television ads, emails, door knockers and radio advertisements, and potentially a mudslinging fight.

Also it’s a race where the Republican establishment is rallying around the former president creating an underdog dynamic for someone who’s ability to win statewide was previously doubted.

Winning the S.C. GOP primary is key. Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination every time except for 2012.

The primary can serve as a graveyard for many presidential campaigns and a booster rocket for others, SC GOP Chairman Drew McKissick said.

And by Feb. 24 is done, with interest and attention at high levels, the primary could draw 1 million voters, McKissick said.

“What we can expect is a memorable, hard fought campaign between two people who know each other well and more importantly are also well known to the people of whom are asking for votes,” said Rob Godfrey, a political consultant in South Carolina, who previously worked for Nikki Haley, but is staying neutral in this race. “It’s a dynamic we haven’t seen in South Carolina in recent memory if ever, and it’s one for the history books.”

Staying in

Even though party leaders say signs indicate Trump will win the GOP nomination, Haley is fighting on and appeared to show no signs that she will drop out anytime soon.

“I’m a fighter and I’m scrappy and now we’re the last ones standing next to Donald Trump,” Haley said in New Hampshire, shortly after the primary was called for the former president. “And today we got close to half of the vote. We still have a ways to go and we keep moving up.”

Flanked by her son, daughter and son-in-law, Haley insisted that she would continue on, despite her loss on Tuesday, saying that voters deserved a choice in the nominating contest — not a “coronation” of Trump.

It’s a decision that sets up a month-long battle in South Carolina and forces both campaigns to potentially spend millions of dollars fighting each other and not move on to the general election.

“In the next two months, millions of voters in over 20 states will have their say,” Haley said. “We should honor them and allow them to vote. And guess what? In the next two months, Joe Biden isn’t going to get any younger or any better.”

After Haley spoke, Trump at his own election night rally continued to emphasize that Haley only received 25% of support from people who registered as Republicans, according to exit polls.

He went on to criticize Haley’s remarks Tuesday, which sounded more like a victory speech rather than someone who came in second.

“She’s doing a speech like she won. She didn’t win, she lost,” Trump said. “She ran up and pretended she won Iowa, and I looked around and said, didn’t she come in third, yeah, she came in third.”

“Let’s not have someone take a victory, when she had a very bad night,” he added.

Haley Wednesday night called Trump’s speech a temper tantrum.

“I know that’s what he does when he’s insecure. I know that’s what he does when he is threatened and he should feel threatened,” Haley said.

TV advertisements and other outreach plans

Although Nevada holds the next set of contests in the GOP race, Haley came straight to South Carolina. Haley opted to participate in the Feb. 6 Nevada primary, instead of the Feb. 8 GOP caucus, which ultimately will award delegates. Campaigning in Nevada is difficult for GOP candidates as Republican areas are remote and traveling to and from the Silver State takes up so much time.

Trump and businessman/pastor Ryan Binkley, a longshot candidate, are the only names appearing on the Nevada GOP Caucus ballot.

Although Trump’s campaign declined to comment about specific plans in South Carolina for this article, the former president indicated he wouldn’t spend much time in Nevada.

“We are going to Nevada for a little while, we’re not going to do much, we have a great team there but it’s a team we can now send some place else,” Trump said Tuesday in New Hampshire. “We’ll head out to South Carolina where I think we’re going to win easily.”

But if Wednesday is any indication, expect high-energy campaigning. Trump supporters even showed up to Haley’s South Carolina swing kick off in North Charleston waiving signs and flag in support of the former president.

The Haley campaign also is planning rallies in the Greenville-area planned for Saturday and one in Conway on Sunday. The campaign also eyes doing retail politics stops at locations such as barbecue restaurants and breweries.

Haley’s campaign also plans heavy investments in the state, which includes a $4 million TV ad buy to run through Feb. 24 in the state’s seven television markets. The first two spots began airing Wednesday.

Haley’s campaign has been organizing door knockers in the state, including last weekend. The campaign has 1,700 volunteers ready to help the campaign.

“We’re hitting the ground running,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, spokeswoman for the Haley campaign.

The Americans for Prosperity, a Koch-network super PAC, has been advertising in the state this month arguing Haley is the best candidate to compete against President Joe Biden.

The AFP has reserved $991,000 worth of time Jan. 9 through Feb. 11 in the Myrtle Beach, Columbia and Charleston television markets on broadcast television channels, according to a review of FCC disclosures.

It’s a move that keeps them out of the Upstate Greenville market, which is heavily evangelical and conservative.

Since AFP endorsed Haley, the organization has knocked on more than 224,000 doors in 26 counties in South Carolina and made more than 91,000 phone calls in all 46 counties on behalf of Haley.

It has plans to expand its reach into both rural and urban counties.

Stand for America, the Nikki Haley aligned super PAC, also plans millions of dollars of TV ads on broadcast, cable and digital in the state’s major television markets.

SFA Lead Strategist Mark Harris would not disclose a specific amount, but reservations should be made in the next few days.

The Republican TV ads will have to compete with ads from President Joe Biden and the South Carolina Democratic Party through Feb. 3.

Biden’s reelection campaign has reserved $85,000 worth of time through Feb. 3 on broadcast channels in the Charleston, Columbia and Greenville television markets to encourage Democratic voters to turnout for the Democratic presidential primary and not crossover to the Republican presidential primary on Feb. 24.

Because the state, which is ruby red, does not have voter registration by party, people can choose which primary they want to vote in. It’s a dynamic that could bring over Democratic leaning voters and independents into the GOP primary. But McKissick that type of participation would overwhelming skew the primary results.

“Does it happen? Yes. Is it to a great degree? I don’t think so,” McKissick said. “When you’re talking about almost 1 million people voting in a competitive primary, I”m not worried.”

Who’s in the lead?

As the presidential race turns to South Carolina, Trump leads against Haley. Polling shows Haley trailing by 29 points in her home state, according to the latest Emerson College Poll conducted in early January.

Trump is extremely popular in the Palmetto State. He won the 2016 GOP primary and carried the state in 2016 and 2020’s general elections.

“I’m not surprised the former president has had a big lead and that’s been maintained given the lawsuits the administration and liberal Democrats have filed, essentially driven a lot of the coverage in the primary,” McKissick said. “That takes time, coverage or oxygen, if you will, away from other candidates. That hasn’t surprised me.”

The polling difference will require Haley’s campaign and supporting super PACs to reassure donors their strategies are working. The strategy may be working as Haley said Wednesday her campaigned raised $1 million since she spoke after the New Hampshire primary.

“Our strategy was to narrow the field to two by South Carolina, we actually did it earlier than we hoped,” Harris said. “People are jazzed up and I’m very confident we’ll have the resources we need to continue to fight on. Again, we’re the insurgent candidate, I fully expect that the Trump campaign and super PACs will outspend us and that’s fine. We’re the outsiders.”

Trump also has more endorsements than Haley, including the biggest political names in the state.

Trump has the backing of the top Republican establishment in the state including Gov. Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, U.S. Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, U.S. Reps. Jeff Duncan, Russell Fry, Nancy Mace, William Timmons and Joe Wilson, House Speaker Murrell Smith, House Majority Leader Davey Hiott and many other state lawmakers.

During a rally in New Hampshire on Saturday, Trump had eight of those politicians appear with him as he tried to quash the challenge from Haley.

Smith even spoke about how he even held a fundraiser for Haley when she ran for governor, but now much of the state House of Representatives is backing Trump in the election.

“This man created one of the most robust economies in our lifetime four years ago. He is someone that does not need on-the-job training,” Smith told the crowd in New Hampshire, several days before the primary, urging them to vote for Trump in an overwhelming fashion. “If you do that, and you win by a big margin here, we’ll finish the job in South Carolina.”

Duncan previously said he did not plan to endorse until after the primary.

Mace, who defeated a Trump-backed challenger and had Haley campaign for her in 2022, told the Associated Press Monday she doesn’t “see eye to eye perfectly with any candidate. And until now I’ve stayed out of it, but the time has come to unite behind our nominee.”

Both Haley and Trump’s campaign have reached out to the House Republican Caucus about speaking at caucus meetings to earn members’ support, for those who have yet to commit to a candidate.

“Obviously they want their local representatives to support and endorse and tell local constituents to vote for their candidates,” said Hiott.

For Haley, not having as many endorsements, which includes U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, R-Rock Hill, state Rep. Nathan Ballentine, R-Richland, and state Sen. Tom Davis, R-Beaufort, is a reminder of the headwinds she faced in 2010 when she ran for governor against establishment candidates.

“She’s always been the outsider, she’s didn’t have endorsements in 2010, she doesn’t have them now, she is running as the outsider anti-establishment candidate, same as 2010 and I think ultimately they have their endorsements and their Washington insiders and that’s totally fine,” said Perez-Cubas, spokeswoman for the Haley campaign. “Nikki is focused on earning the votes and supporters and everyday Americans.”

But ultimately people who make endorsements have the same amount of power as everyday voters on election day in precincts.

“The endorsements of the governor and House speaker are significant and headliners, and anyone would embrace them, but no campaign here or anywhere rises and falls based on anything besides what voters have to say at the ballot box,” Godfrey said.

Miami Herald reporter Max Greenwood contributed to this article from Concord, New Hampshire.