About half of Sacramento County coronavirus deaths are age 80 or older, officials say

A little more than half of Sacramento County’s coronavirus deaths have been residents in their 80s or older, despite that demographic making up less than 4% of its population and a similarly small percentage of its recorded COVID-19 case total, county health officials reported this week.

Sacramento County as of Thursday had confirmed 155 fatalities from the coronavirus among more than 10,500 all-time, lab-positive cases. People 80 years old or older account for just 385 of those cases, 3.7% of the county’s overall total, but have nearly 51% of the confirmed death toll at 79 fatalities.

The county health office this week expanded its data dashboard to include a more detailed breakdown of deceased cases by age, classifying them into five groups: 0 to 49, followed by 50s, 60s, 70s and 80-plus years old. Prior to Wednesday, Sacramento County health officials had only disclosed whether or not COVID-19 patients who’d died were age 65 or older.

Of the 155 deaths, 79 have come in the oldest age group (about 51%); 27 have been in their 70s (17%); 22 in their 60s (14%); 15 in their 50s (10%); and 12 below age 50 (8%).

The newly shared figures further affirm at the local level what’s been evident globally since the start of the pandemic: that COVID-19 is drastically more fatal for the oldest of populations, though it can still prove deadly for non-senior adults as well, especially those with existing health conditions.

The state Department of Public Health as of Thursday reported 17,926 Californians 80 or older testing positive for COVID-19, with at least 4,106 having died from the highly contagious respiratory disease or closely related complications. That means residents in their 80s or older account for 3.4% of California’s nearly 530,000 coronavirus cases, but over 42% of the state’s 9,660 deaths reported as of that point. Seniors in that age group make up about 3.9% of the state’s population, CDPH says.

Data has consistently reflected since earlier months of the pandemic that more than 40% — and at some periods, over half — of all the state’s confirmed COVID-19 deaths have come in senior living homes. As of Wednesday, California’s skilled nursing facilities accounted for 3,415 deaths statewide. Assisted-living facilities, which provide a lower level of medical care than skilled nursing homes, have made up 703 deaths statewide, according to the most recent data available from the California Department of Social Services.

Sacramento County reports that at least 52 of its COVID-19 deaths have been residents of congregate care facilities, which include skilled nursing and assisted living homes as well as a few types such as rehab and memory care facilities. That figure is updated on Fridays, the county dashboard says.

The county and the state are similar in terms of the ratio of deaths in the 80-plus population compared to their reported case totals among this demographic: 79 deaths out of 385 confirmed Sacramento County cases is about 21%, while 4,106 deaths among 17,926 statewide cases is 23%.

While at first glance these figures might seem to imply that between one-fifth and one-quarter of those aged 80 or older who contract COVID-19 may be expected to die, there are three major reasons why one shouldn’t use either of these percentages as a measure of the virus’ true mortality rate for this age demographic.

The first issue involves testing. To know what percentage of COVID-19 cases are dying in any given age group, one would have to know how many total — not just lab-tested — cases have occurred across this population.

Unless the entire population undergoes diagnostic testing, it’s only possible to estimate the true prevalence of the coronavirus in any given community or demographic within that community. In Sacramento County, as in many other jurisdictions, this can’t be accurately estimated at the moment because the county has not publicly reported age-specific breakdowns for tests performed, so it’s still unknown from how many total lab results the 385 positive cases in the 80-plus age group have come.

The second issue is with the ongoing computer system glitch that has plagued the state and counties statewide for at least the past several days, resulting in what some county health officials say has caused “serious” underreporting of new COVID-19 cases. The issue is not affecting the reporting of hospitalizations, state officials said this week, and it doesn’t appear to be currently impacting the reporting of coronavirus deaths.

It’s unclear to what extent new cases are being underreported, but an undercount to any degree while deaths continue to be reported more accurately means that the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases will be skewed until the backlogged cases make it into the data.

The third issue is that some of the 385 confirmed cases, though it’s also unknown how many, are still considered active and may still result in death at a later date. Sacramento County currently estimates 7,999 confirmed cases as “likely recovered,” infections for which three weeks have passed since the onset of the disease without death. That leaves at least about 2,400 cases considered active — which is, once again, an underestimate due to the unresolved data issue.

Other takeaways on ages of deaths

Though the coronavirus is still considered deadliest in the oldest of populations, there have been some recent signs locally of COVID-19 prevalence, death and severe cases becoming more frequent in younger adults.

Of the first 69 deaths Sacramento County reported during the pandemic, most of them from March through May, just five were residents below the traditional retirement age of 65. That’s a rate of about 7%.

Since then, the county has indicated that 32 of the next 86 reported deaths were below that age threshold. That’s 37%, more than quintuple the earlier rate.

It’s less clear how the county’s death rates among more specific age groups have changed over time because health officials only began providing the decade-by-decade breakdown this week.

The county did start tracking cases by decade group, though, in July. In Sacramento County, the 20-29 age range remains the most infected group after emerging as such around early July. The 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s follow next in descending order.

Sacramento residents aged 0 to 39 account for a little more than half of all confirmed COVID-19 cases to date.

In some instances, like that of 27-year-old Sacramento State graduate Kris Obligar, cases in young adults have been life-threatening. Obligar, who has Type 2 diabetes and was intubated in an intensive care unit for weeks with confirmed COVID-19, told The Bee she thought she was going to die. In early July, doctors said an emergency tracheotomy might be necessary — that they might need to cut a hole in her throat.

Death remains extremely rare in children and teens; though Sacramento County’s dashboard reports 12 deaths being between ages 0 and 49, all of them were at least 18 years old. Kids can still catch it though: The county says 873 infections, or 8.3% of all cases, have come in minors.

California has recorded no coronavirus deaths in children under 13. The state as of Thursday morning had confirmed just one death in a juvenile, a teen who died at a Fresno County hospital, authorities announced last week.

What about the rest of the Sacramento region?

As for the three neighboring counties that make up the immediate Sacramento area, Yolo as of Wednesday did not include an age breakdown for its 42 COVID-19 fatalities; Placer has classified its 20 deaths as 17 above age 65 and three between ages 50 and 64; and El Dorado has reported just one coronavirus death, a Lake Tahoe area man over age 65.

But in Yolo County, exactly half — 21 of 42 — COVID-19 deaths reported through Wednesday afternoon have come at senior care homes; 20 were residents and one was a staff member. A total of 16 residents at Stollwood Convalescent Hospital, a Woodland facility whose CEO in July announced it would permanently close this fall after being ravaged by the pandemic, died of COVID-19 in the spring.

The county hasn’t officially released or confirmed ages for the victims, but they were documented by the Davis Enterprise newspaper in May, as told by family and friends. Of the 16 Stollwood residents who passed away, 13 were 80 or older. The remaining three were ages 78, 72 and 68. Two of the deceased were older than 100.

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