Hamas won't like Hezbollah leader's speech, experts say

In a speech watched closely by observers in the U.S. and the Middle East, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah distanced the Iran-backed Lebanese paramilitary group from Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and exercised just enough restraint to show support for Gaza without declaring war.

In his first speech since Hamas’ attack on Israel, Nasrallah emphasized that Iran was not involved, that it was “entirely Palestinian, for Palestine, its cause, its people” and “not related to any regional or international issue.”

Nasrallah warned the U.S. that it would “pay the price” for not preventing Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza from spilling over into a regional conflict.

“To the Americans, I say: Threats against us are of no use,” Nasrallah said in the televised broadcast on Friday. “The one who will pay the price will be...your interests, your soldiers and your fleets.”

He also urged those who wanted Hezbollah to play a more significant role in the conflict to be patient.

“For those who say that Hezbollah should start a war in the entire region, I say wait. These are the beginnings,” Nasrallah said. “More actions will be taken against Israel from several different fronts and this issue will become more obvious in the next few days.”

Hezbollah has launched daily attacks at Israel from its shared border with the country, but in his speech, Nasrallah suggested that such attacks “won’t be all.”

Nasrallah is waiting and watching to see if Hamas faces “an existential threat” from Israel which would require Hezbollah to intervene, Kim Ghattas wrote in a recent Atlantic article. “Iran would likely prefer to sacrifice Hamas rather than waste Hezbollah, unless Iran itself comes under threat,” she argued. Hamas, which has already been unhappy with Hezbollah’s level of support, won’t like Nasrallah’s speech, Ghattas wrote on X. His remarks reiterated the strategy of sounding like “a warrior without declaring war,” Ghattas wrote, and showing “just enough support for Gaza without taking any responsibility for the Oct. 7 attack.” Even though Hezbollah and Iran stand to lose too much from entering the conflict, they are still benefiting from it, writes Emile Hokayem from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Israel facing quagmire, U.S. image in tatters, Arab states paralyzed.”

Nasrallah’s speech likely diminishes fears inside the Israel Defense Forces and Pentagon that Hezbollah is preparing to open a second military front against Israel, Semafor’s Jay Solomon writes. The leader also distanced his movement and its chief benefactor in Iran from Hamas, claiming neither of them were involved in planning last month’s assault on southern Israel. “This operation is the result of a 100% Palestinian decision,” Nasrallah said. His restraint underscores the importance Tehran places on using Hezbollah in its broader conflict against Israel, the U.S. and its Arab allies. The Lebanese militia sits on a weapons arsenal of some 150,0000 rockets and missiles. Using them now to support Hamas would rob Tehran of one of its most important deterrents against Israel or the U.S. targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Nasrallah described Hezbollah as not a central player in the Gaza war but part of a “support front.”