New Hampshire is known for knocking out presidential frontrunners. How will Donald Trump and Joe Biden fare?

LONDONDERRY, N.H. – Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have long billed the 2024 primary elections as a slow slog to an inevitable 2020 rematch.

But with just a matter of weeks until the first Americans vote in primaries and caucuses across the country, there are some signs that long-held calculus could crack – for one, or both men.

New Hampshire, in particular, is known for causing upsets. In 1992, the first-in-the-nation primary state gave then-governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton the nickname “comeback kid.” Clinton was hanging on by a thread before he clinched second in the Granite State, propelling him to victories across the country.

The contours of the 2024 race may leave the door open for a similar New Hampshire shakeup.

Trump for months has led his GOP competitors in the state, but recent surveys show former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley inching within striking distance. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters published last week found Haley within the 4% margin of error behind Trump.

If Haley gets within 10% of Trump on election day, some some experts say it could alter the narrative that he's the runaway favorite in the Republican race and potentially give her a boost heading into the primary in her home state of South Carolina.

On the Democratic side, Biden won't be on the ballot because of a dispute between the Democratic National Committee and the state over the date of the New Hampshire primary. And while a ragtag group of local Democratic leaders are organizing a write-in campaign to ensure the president avoids an embarrassing loss, the success of such an effort isn’t certain.

Here's a closer look at how New Hampshire voters could deliver surprising defeats for each party frontrunner.

Trump’s Haley woes

By all accounts, the former president is leading the Republican primary race, but his once seemingly insurmountable frontrunner status is shrinking.

Haley, bolstered by several high-profile endorsements, including one from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, appears to be closing the gap with Trump. In a recent CBS/YouGov poll, 45% of likely Republican voters said they were considering supporting Haley, compared to 55% who said the same of the former president.

The former ambassador to the United Nations also performs better than Trump when it comes to undecided voters. Over 20% of those polled in the CBS/YouGov survey said they might consider Haley but needed more information. A mere 8% said they might consider the real estate mogul.

And with five weeks until the New Hampshire primary, Haley’s team is trying to solidify that support by building a coalition of hesitant Trump voters, never-Trump voters and independents, which make up 40% of registered voters in the state.

Dave Dubé, an undeclared voter from Wolfeboro, said he typically leans liberal and voted for Biden in the 2020 election. Ahead of 2024, he’s considering voting for Haley in the Republican primary – and even the general election if she becomes the GOP nominee.

“She knows how to speak in front of people. She's vibrant,” Dubé said at a recent Haley town hall.

Undeclared voters like Dubé can choose whether to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary in New Hampshire. In election years with two contentious primaries, these voters are often more hard-pressed to decide which ballot to choose.

But because Biden is not on the ballot on the Democratic side, several liberal-leaning undeclared voters told USA TODAY they plan to vote in the Republican race. And these voters, who tend to support candidates not named Trump, could play an integral role. Many have said they plan to support either Haley or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Still, no one has ever won the New Hampshire primary without winning the plurality of their party’s registered voters, and Haley will need to garner broad support among Republicans to win against Trump.

Erin Murphy, 45, of Hampton, is among this demographic. She supported Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and still largely backs his policies. However, she believes Haley is a more electable candidate – and it all comes back to independent-minded voters.

“She is an old-school conservative, not like this new Trump-conservative,” Murphy said. “I don't think any of the other candidates can get those independents in the middle of as well as she could.”

Independents Moving the Needle, a new super PAC, has identified roughly 300,000 Republican-leaning independent voters who don’t typically participate in primary elections and is attempting to mobilize them for Haley. The group, led by New Hampshire billionaire Frank Laukien, is targeting 30-second, pro-Haley social media ads at conservative-minded people who aren't politically active to encourage them to vote.

They argue that even a small portion of this group could help tip the scales in Haley’s favor and lead to an embarrassing loss for Trump.

Biden’s write-in bet

Biden chose not to put his name on the New Hampshire ballot because of a conflict between the DNC and New Hampshire election regulations. While national Democrats tried to push the Granite State primary later in 2024, the state is required to hold the first primary in the nation.

State Sen. David Watters remembers thinking the president's choice was “a stupid decision.” But Watters knew that if Biden did not win the race, the repercussions on the president’s reelection bid could be severe. A defeat for Biden early in the primary, even over a formality, could stir broad unease over his 2024 chances.

So Watters and a group of state party leaders began organizing a write-in effort to ensure Biden resoundingly defeated his distant rivals, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and spiritual leader Marianne Williamson.

If all goes to plan, Biden should win easily. In a recent Saint Anselm College poll, 50% of Democrats said they planned to print Biden’s name, compared to just 10% who said they’d vote for Phillips and 7% for Williamson.

Officials supporting the write-in effort say they have no doubt Biden will eek out the victory. It’s not without precedent. In 2010, for instance, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski successfully waged a similar effort to retain her seat after facing defeat in a Republican primary.

Still, the New Hampshire write-in groups are keeping expectations low.

“As I keep reminding folks, this is not easy,” Kathy Sullivan, former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, told USA TODAY. “It's not the typical election and so it becomes a bit of a heavy lift, because you are having to encourage people to get out and that when they go to vote, his name will not be on the ballot.”

One of the main issues is resources. Neither the Biden campaign nor the New Hampshire Democratic Party can be involved in the effort without facing penalties from the national party, limiting the financial backing available. And though Murkowski is an arguably more difficult name to spell than Biden, she had more than $1 million already in her campaign coffers.

Sullivan last month helped launch a super PAC, dubbed Granite for America, aimed at supporting voter outreach initiatives. As of right now, the group is mainly sending out mailers explaining how to vote for Biden. Television ads, like those recently launched by Phillips' campaign, aren’t on the table for the PAC.

Another grassroots group, Granite State Write-In, has organized over 1,200 volunteers and raised roughly $50,000 to ensure Biden wins in New Hampshire. The group is relying on conversations with local Democratic town and county committees to spread the word about the write-in campaign.

Their main push will occur on Election Day, when they plan to deploy volunteers to over 300 polling places across the state to encourage anyone who shows up to support Biden. Right now, however, it’s not clear how many voters will come out and pick up a Democratic ballot.

“All New Hampshire people can be a little cranky, but I think Democrats are going to come home very strong for the president,” Watters said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump vs. Biden: This early voting state could change the 2024 race