Handful of marquee matchups highlight Michigan's US House races

Welcome to the "be-careful-what-you-wish-for" election.

When Michiganders voted to create an independent redistricting commission in 2018 to set political boundary lines for congressional and state legislative offices, it was believed it would benefit Democrats in a state where they often got the most votes, and that Republican legislators had rigged the old districts to help their party.

Fast-forward to now: The new districts are drawn and it's possible Democrats, currently holding a 7-7 split with Republicans in the state's congressional delegation could end up in the minority after the Nov. 8 election. As it stands now, Republicans hold a presumptive advantage in five seats, Democrats in four seats. That leaves four seats with far closer odds (we list them below in descending order of competitiveness) to decide it.

Part of the reason the outcome is up in the air is due to the state's losing a congressional district after the 2020 Census. Another part is that, in midterm elections when Democrats are in power and inflation is high, as is the case now, Republicans are expected to have an edge nationally. And with four districts in Michigan that appear to be competitive if not outright toss-ups, it could be a good night for the GOP in the state and elsewhere.

How good, of course, remains to be seen.

Strictly speaking, it doesn't make a ton of difference across the 435-member U.S. House of Representatives whether Michigan has more Democratic or Republican members: If Republicans take control of the House — they need to pick up just five seats to do so — but Democrats take the majority in Michigan's delegation, they will still be in the minority, with less control over legislative priorities and committee memberships. (The other way around is also true if Democrats maintain control of the House, a far less likely proposition this year.) Yes, that membership can make a difference in the eventuality of an Electoral College tie in presidential years: Each state's delegation gets one vote for president to break the deadlock. But that doesn't matter this year, since, if it were to happen, it would be the next newly installed Congress to decide that in January 2025, not this one.

More:Michigan election 2022: Voter guide for Macomb, Oakland, Wayne counties

What's more on the line this year is whether Michigan's interests, as the majority of its voters see them, are represented in a Congress that will likely deal with inflationary pressures, immigration, debt limits, abortion rights, the Russian war in Ukraine, student loans and much more. Several current members — Reps. Brenda Lawrence, D-Southfield; Andy Levin, D-Bloomfield Township; Peter Meijer, R-Grand Rapids, and Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph — are headed for the exits either because they're stepping down (Lawrence, Upton) or lost in-party primaries in August (Levin, Meijer).

Meanwhile, political handicappers and partisan leaders nationwide are going to be watching the key Michigan matchups very closely, knowing that they could help determine which party takes or keeps control of the U.S. House and how big a majority it has to push an agenda going into 2023.

Here's a look at all the matchups:

Marquee races

3RD DISTRICT: Of all the congressional races in Michigan this year, this may be the one that will be most closely watched, offering Democrats a rare shot at flipping a Republican seat in 2022 and testing former President Donald Trump's hold on west Michigan voters. Trump played a large role in encouraging this Grand Rapids-based district to dump Meijer (see above) in the GOP primary for John Gibbs, a former Housing and Urban Development official under Trump. The reason? Meijer voted to impeach Trump for instigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. But Gibbs, who has continued to advance false claims that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, is far less well known than Meijer and this redrawn district, which now includes Muskegon and Grand Haven, is considered marginally more favorable to Democratic lawyer Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer in 2020. Gibbs hasn't seen near the outside help others in his party have and Scholten has raised far more money. As such, Scholten is seen by national handicappers as having the slightest of edges over Gibbs in a race that also includes Libertarian Jamie Lewis and Working Class candidate Louis Palus. But in a part of the state that has traditionally been friendly to Republicans, this race is still far from settled.

7TH DISTRICT: When the redistricting commission split Lansing and Livingston County from her home in northern Oakland County, Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin didn't hesitate: She moved from Holly to Lansing, knowing that voters in that city, East Lansing and their outlying areas have been key to her success winning a formerly Republican district that Trump won in 2016 and 2020. And while her new mid-Michigan district, the 7th, is marginally more Democratic-leaning thanks to the inclusion of more of those suburbs, Slotkin, a former intelligence officer and acting assistant secretary of defense, is still running in a district Trump lost to President Joe Biden by less than 1 percentage point. This year, she faces state Sen. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, a former Army helicopter pilot and conservative well-known in Lansing for battling with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Libertarian Leah Dailey is also on the ballot. Slotkin has proven to be a prodigious fundraiser and appears, again, ready to run ahead of her party, but this race has attracted lots of outside interest. Slotkin looks to have the edge but with polls showing top-of-the-ticket support gaining for Republicans, don't count this race as done just yet.

10TH DISTRICT: This race for a district that truly is open, with no incumbent U.S. House member living within its boundaries, represents a fascinating matchup between Republican businessman and former Army helicopter pilot John James and Democratic former prosecutor and judge, Carl Marlinga. What makes it even more fascinating is that it's taking place in a district that's largely based in Macomb County, that politically mercurial metro Detroit area that has helped decide more than its share of important races, both in state and nationally. The new district links southern Macomb County, more blue-collar and traditionally Democratic, with more Republican-leaning areas to the north. Marlinga has a long history in the county and is well-known locally but in a county that has been leaning more Republican in recent elections, most handicappers believe James, who lost close races statewide to U.S. Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters, respectively, in 2018 and 2020, and has a fundraising advantage, has the edge. But James doesn't yet live in the district and there are those who believe that could hurt his chances. Others on the ballot include Libertarian Mike Saliba and Working Class candidate Andrea Kirby.

8TH DISTRICT: The counties in much of this newly drawn district in the crook of Michigan's Thump — Bay, Genesee, Saginaw — have been trending more Republican for some time and are now linked with much of Midland County, which has long been friendly territory to the GOP. As such, there is some reason to believe that U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Township, may be in some trouble running for his sixth two-year term. But the Kildee brand is a solid one politically speaking: His uncle, Dale, served this region for 36 years before stepping down as Dan took office in 2012. Most handicappers figure that the incumbent, with a fundraising advantage, will hold on, despite a game challenge from Paul Junge, a former Trump administration employee and former Lansing TV anchor. Junge ran two years ago and lost to Slotkin (see above) but moved into Grand Blanc to face Kildee. There's not been much polling but if it's a particularly dismal night for Democrats nationally, it might be a better-than-expected night for Junge. Other candidates include Libertarian David Canny and Working Class nominee Kathy Goodwin.

History in the making

13TH DISTRICT: Few, if any, of the other congressional races across Michigan are likely to produce upsets, with incumbents expected to win pretty much all of them. There is one key exception.

State Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Detroit, is widely expected to win in the new 13th Congressional District based in Detroit and stretching Downriver, having defeated a large field that crowded into the August primary in this predominantly Democratic district after U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence, D-Southfield, who has represented Detroit's east side, decided not to run.

That's noteworthy because Thanedar, a millionaire entrepreneur and businessman, is an Indian immigrant whose election would leave Detroit, with the largest percentage of Black residents of any big U.S. city, without a Black representative in Congress for the first time since 1955. (U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, who is a Palestinian American, is expected to win reelection in the neighboring 12th District.)

In the Nov. 8 election, Thanedar faces Republican Martell Bivings, who is Black and who has worked as a liaison with the Detroit Economic Growth Corporation, but given the extraordinary Democratic lean in this district, Thanedar is overwhelmingly favored. Also running are U.S. Taxpayers candidate Chris Dardzinski and Working Class candidate Simone Coleman.

A quick rundown of other races

What's most interesting about the other races across Michigan — and what may be confusing to some voters — is that after redistricting, they may not see the same members of Congress on their ballots as they're used to seeing. Here's a quick look at those races and any major changes:

1ST DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Watersmeet, is running for his fourth two-year term in a district still comprised of the Upper Peninsula and much of the northern Lower Peninsula. Given the partisan makeup of the district, Bergman has the clear edge over Democrat Dr. Bob Lorinser, a physician who lives in Marquette. Other candidates include Libertarian Andrew Gale and Working Class candidate Liz Hakola.

2ND DISTRICT: This district spreads through much of what is currently the 4th District west of Midland north through the Lower Peninsula and west to Lake Michigan as well as snaking down east of Grand Rapids, capturing parts of the current 2nd and 3rd districts. U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, is the favorite over Democratic educator Jerry Hilliard in a predominantly rural and staunchly Republican district. Libertarian candidate Nathan Hewer is also running.

4TH DISTRICT: This west Michigan district is comprised of parts of the current 2nd District west of Grand Rapids to Lake Michigan and down through what is the current 6th District. The favorite is U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Holland Township, who won the Republican primary handily after Upton, who also lives in the district and has been in the House since 1987, decided not to run for another term. He faces Democrat Joseph Alfonso, a Marine veteran who works for the city of Kentwood. Also running are Libertarian Lorence Wenke and U.S. Taxpayers candidate Curtis Michael Clark.

5TH DISTRICT: Comprised of much of what is now the 7th District along the state's southern border (and catching parts of the current 6th District in the southwestern corner of Michigan), U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, who is running for his eighth two-year term, is considered to have the clear edge in what is a staunchly conservative area. He faces New Buffalo lawyer Bart Goldberg, a Democrat. Also running are Libertarian Norman Peterson and U.S. Taxpayers candidate Ezra Scott.

6TH DISTRICT: This district, comprised of Washtenaw County and parts of western Wayne County and Downriver, takes up parts of the current 7th and 12th Districts. Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, who had lived with her late husband (and longtime U.S. Rep.) John Dingell in Dearborn for years, moved to Ann Arbor when Dearborn was redistricted into the new 12th District. Dingell remains the prohibitive favorite in a Democratic district against Republican Whittney Williams, of Canton, who has worked as an auto show product specialist.

9TH DISTRICT: Made up of mostly the current 10th District covering the Thumb and northern Macomb County, this new district also includes parts of northern Oakland County currently in the 8th District. U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Bruce Township, is running for her second term and is the favorite in a solidly Republican district against Democratic nominee Brian Jaye, a Rochester lawyer. Other candidates include Libertarian Jake Kelts and Working Class nominee Jim Walkowicz.

11TH DISTRICT: This district is now much more compact, taking up much of southeastern Oakland County. It has gone from a district traditionally held by Republicans, though that flipped in 2018, to now having a clear, if not overwhelming, Democratic edge. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Birmingham, who flipped the current 11th District from red to blue in 2018 and who defeated U.S. Rep. Andy Levin, D-Bloomfield Township, in a fractious primary, is the favorite. She faces Republican Mark Ambrose, also of Bloomfield Township, a veteran and financial analyst.

12TH DISTRICT: Many voters in this new district could be understandably confused come Election Day if they haven't been keeping up with all the changes. They include linking Dearborn and areas around it, which are currently represented by Dingell, with Southfield, currently represented by Lawrence, and tying that to Detroit's west side of western Wayne County communities, including Livonia. U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, although she didn't live in the district, saw her political base moved into it, found a new home in the district and is the clear favorite. She faces Republican Steven Elliott, of Southfield, a tattoo artist and laser specialist. Also on the ballot is Working Class candidate Gary Walkowicz.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: US House races in MIchigan: What you need to know