Handicapper Ed DeRosa's expert picks for Oaks Day races at Churchill Downs
Happy Kentucky Oaks day! This 13-race juggernaut starts at 10:30 a.m. (as does the 14-race extravaganza on Derby Day).
If you offered a wager on which day would produce more favorites and lower prices overall, I’d side with Oaks Day. I think the most interesting opportunity for a longshot comes in Race 8, and although I don’t think the win payoff will be huge in the Oaks, I do think there is value in betting on the race.
Let’s get to it!
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RACE 1: 6-3-4-8
#6 Customer Driven got a lackadaisical trip around the short-stretch Keeneland main track when returning off a brief layoff. She should be sharper for this race, and Gaffalione retaining the mount is reason for optimism.
RACE 2: 8-10-11
I am hoping a return to dirt and mild cutback wakes up #8 Blamethechampagne, who has more often than not found herself too far back, but 6-to-1 is a decent price on a filly trainer Ian Wilkes was willing to try stakes with even as a maiden.
RACE 3: 8-1A
We’ll see if the entry actually takes this kind of money, but 7-to-5 is too short even with getting a duo that figures to be prominent early (#1 Q F Seventy Five) and late (#1A Arabian Prince). 4-to-1 is probably a pipe dream on #8 Aviano, but I’m fine with even 3-to-1 on a colt with these kinds of numbers.
RACE 4: 3-7
#7 Juju’s Map is the Oaks Day version of Jack Christopher, a Grade 1 winner at 2 making its 3-year-old debut on the undercard. The Alcibiades winner was runner-up to Echo Zulu in the Breeders’ Cup and is just better than the rest of the field if ready.
RACE 5: 8-6
I tried to beat #8 Bleecker Street last out, and she made me look foolish. I’m not going to make that mistake again here in the Modesty, which kicks off a stakes 7 pack!
RACE 6: 2-4-3-7-6
Back to the scene of some of her biggest triumphs, 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil is a perfect 5-for-5 beneath the Twin Spires. #4 Battle Bling picks up Irad Ortiz off consecutive triple digit Brisnet Speed Ratings.
RACE 7: 5-6-8
It is impossible to knock what #5 Olympiad has done this year, especially considering that third win in a row last out was a lifetime bet performance on Brisnet.
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RACE 8: 10-5
Our best longshot of the day is here in the Edgewood Stakes, as I’m interested in #10 Dream Lith trying turf for the first time.
RACE 9: 2-3-8
Could be a three-pronged speed duel upfront, but I like #2 Pretty Bird to win that battle and the war. #3 Marissa’s Lady will be right there early, too, and #8 Matareya might just be better than all, but I think she’ll be far shorter than the 5-2 morning line indicates.
RACE 10: 3-1
Spicy turf sprint here on the new turf course, and I had a hard time separating my top two, but sided with #3 Caravel “on top,” as I like that she’ll be forwardly placed with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.
RACE 11: 10-4-3-5-8-9
THE KENTUCKY OAKS. How I bet this race is all about how they bet this race. If #10 Kathleen O is at least 4-to-1 then I would consider a heavy win bet. Regardless, my main opinion is to beat both Echo Zulu and Secret Oath out of the number. I’ll be keying 4, 10 with 3, 5, 8, 9.
RACE 12: 4-5-12
Gun Runner filly joined the Steve Asmussen barn after a big debut effort last year. It is impossible to think she’ll be 8-to-1 if ready off those two bullet workouts.
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RACE 13: 14-6-12
A debut runner to close it out? Why not! #14 Swift Thinker is from an incredible female family, and Arrogate has picked things up with his progeny as they’ve aged. #6 Little Blaaze showed a new dimension last out when on the lead.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Handicapper Ed DeRosa's expert picks for Oaks Day races
