Handicapping the 2021 Kentucky Derby: A closer look at all 20 contenders Saturday
A topsy-turvy season of prep races has finally reached its end point with the 147th Kentucky Derby set for Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Amid the defections and the upsets, one constant has remained. That would be Essential Quality, the undefeated and reigning champion of this 3-year-old class and the only favorite to make his way to the winner’s circle in any of the eight 100-point Derby prep races.
The gray colt — a son of Tapit and trained by Louisville native Brad Cox — makes for a deserving favorite Saturday, and he’s the 2-1 choice on the morning line. But, despite his impressive resume, there are plenty of astute handicappers trying to find a way to beat him.
And there are some intriguing options to choose from.
Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World — a turf-to-dirt superstar in the making — is expected to be among the early leaders in Saturday’s race, and he showed in his final prep race that he’ll be tough to run down if he gets out front.
Florida Derby winner Known Agenda — one of four entries for two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher — looked like a top alternative to the favorite coming into the week, but he drew the dreaded No. 1 post Tuesday morning. No Derby winner has come from that spot in 35 years.
Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie also has a two-time Derby-winning trainer, Doug O’Neill, in his corner, and he might be sitting on the best race of his young career.
Hall of Famers Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen and Mark Casse will also be represented Saturday, and four-time trainer of the year Chad Brown brings Highly Motivated, who almost handed Essential Quality his first defeat last month.
But no one has conquered the champ yet. And until that happens, he’s the horse to beat.
Baffert, who is looking for his record seventh Derby win with the hard-trying Medina Spirit, summed it up Tuesday morning.
“To me it’s Essential Quality’s race,” the Hall of Famer said.
Here’s what you need to know about each of Saturday’s contenders:
1. Known Agenda (6-1)
Need to know: This son of Curlin has been a different colt since Todd Pletcher added blinkers (and reigning top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.) back in February. In two races with that combo, Known Agenda has won by a combined 13 ¾ lengths, including an impressive victory in the Florida Derby, putting up a 112 Equibase speed figure. That number is the best in this Derby field.
A good bet? Some will downplay the significance of the No. 1 post — especially with the newly designed Derby starting gate — but Pletcher’s face said it all Tuesday morning. He looked like a man who’d already lost. No horse has won the Derby from the 1 hole since 1986, and it’s been 23 years since a winner came from one of the first three post positions. To find value, you can’t play all the favorites. And too much can go wrong to trust Known Agenda too far Saturday.
2. Like the King (50-1)
Need to know: He’s finished in the top three in all six of his races, but his last three were on the artificial surface at Turfway Park, another was on turf, and his only start at more than a mile on dirt resulted in his worst defeat. Like the King looked good in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks — his first race with Saturday’s jockey, Drayden Van Dyke, aboard — but his dirt form remains in question and his speed numbers are lacking.
A good bet? It’s difficult to see him being much of a factor Saturday. One of six 50-1 shots in this field, and he’s likely to be among the longest prices on the board at post time. Deservedly so.
3. Brooklyn Strong (50-1)
Need to know: A hard-luck, New York-bred gelding, Brooklyn Strong capped a nice 2-year-old campaign with a big win the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, but illness and inclement weather postponed his 2021 debut until the Wood Memorial on April 3. In what looks to be one of the lesser final prep races of the spring, he finished fifth and was never a factor. Umberto Rispoli, who lost his ride on Rock Your World despite guiding that colt to a 3-for-3 record this year, will be Brooklyn Strong’s sixth jockey in six career races.
A good bet? The last horse on the Derby points board and one of the final arrivals to Churchill Downs this week, Brooklyn Strong is a nice horse, but this seems way too much to ask.
4. Keepmeinmind (50-1)
Need to know: Another contender who has endured a rocky 2021. Keepmeinmind finished third — behind top Derby hopefuls Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie — in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall and followed that up with a win in Churchill Downs’ premier 2-year-old race. Then, inclement weather disrupted his training and his plans for a 3-year-old debut. He finally returned to finish way behind one-time Derby favorite Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes on March 13, then finished even farther behind Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes. He was sixth and fifth, respectively, in those races, beaten a combined 24 lengths.
A good bet? He hasn’t run below the Grade 2 level since his debut, but he hasn’t shown anything in 2021 to indicate he’ll have a say in Saturday’s finish.
5. Sainthood (50-1)
Need to know: The group of 50-1 shots with inside posts continues with Sainthood, who had to run all over creation to find any daylight in the stretch of the Jeff Ruby Steaks, then closed with a flourish for second place. There’s definitely talent here, but Sainthood has just three career starts — his debut came Jan. 9 — and this is a major step up. Eleven years ago, Todd Pletcher turned to Churchill Downs master Calvin Borel to ride Super Saver, resulting in the soon-to-be Hall of Famer’s first Derby winner. Pletcher has acknowledged a similar thinking in giving the mount on Sainthood to Corey Lanerie, who trails only the great Pat Day in Churchill meet titles.
A good bet? He’s one of the more intriguing contenders in the 50-1 bunch, but other long shots seem far more likely to hit the board.
6. O Besos (20-1)
Need to know: This is a colt who likes to come from the back of the pack and should be OK with the Derby distance. His sire, Orb, won the 2013 Derby employing a similar come-from-behind style. O Besos looked great in the final stages of the Louisiana Derby, coming on strong for a close third-place finish to Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon after those two set the pace and held on at the finish. O Besos’ 96 Beyer for that effort stacks up well in this field for Louisville-area trainer Greg Foley.
A good bet? If you’re looking for a horse who could be running at the end at a big price — a key combo on Derby Day — this might be your best bet. He’s impossible to ignore in the trifecta and superfecta wagering.
7. Mandaloun (15-1)
Need to know: A couple months ago, Mandaloun looked like one of the possible Derby favorites. Then came that head-scratching dud at the Louisiana Derby, resulting in a no-factor sixth-place finish as the 6-5 favorite. Mandaloun had no visible excuse for that run, and trainer Brad Cox never came up with a reason for the no-show. Since then, he’s been training beautifully at Churchill Downs, wowing observers in the morning and restoring his credibility as a serious Derby contender. (He also won in his only Churchill start, a 7-furlong allowance race last November). His sire is Into Mischief, father of Authentic, last year’s Derby winner.
A good bet? Maybe? Loved this colt earlier in the spring, but that Louisiana Derby showing gives pause. Won’t invest too heavily in him Saturday, but won’t argue with anyone who does.
8. Medina Spirit (15-1)
Need to know: If Medina Spirit doesn’t hit the board Saturday, it won’t be from lack of effort. Bob Baffert’s only entry this year is as consistent as they come — never worse than second in five career starts, four of them graded stakes — and he never stops trying. His three runner-up finishes came to one-time Derby favorite Life Is Good, who beat him twice before being sidelined by a minor injury, and Rock Your World, the second choice on the Derby morning line. Medina Spirit also beat Hot Rod Charlie this year. Three-time Derby winner John Velazquez (last year’s winning jockey) will be aboard.
A good bet? It seems like everyone is overlooking the only Baffert horse in the race. That’s probably a mistake. There are more logical win plays, but leave Medina Spirit out of your exacta and trifecta bets at your own peril.
9. Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)
Need to know: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up (at 94-1 odds!) has shown that performance was no fluke. First by finishing third — beaten only a neck — to Medina Spirit following a nearly three-month layoff and then going to Fair Grounds and topping a highly touted Louisiana Derby field. He’s well rested, he’s been working great, and he’s trained by Doug O’Neill, who’s already won the Derby with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist. Flavien Prat, winner of the controversial 2019 Derby with Country House, gets the mount after a game of jockey musical chairs.
A good bet? Clearly one of the top options to turn the tables on Essential Quality on Saturday. He’s a must-play in the exotic wagering and a legitimate choice as the race winner. Those 8-1 odds are mighty tempting.
10. Midnight Bourbon (20-1)
Need to know: Mr. Consistent on the Fair Grounds prep circuit, Midnight Bourbon finished first in the Lecomte, third in the Risen Star and second to Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is 0-for-21 in the Derby (a record for most starts without a win). This early-running son of Tiznow appears durable enough for the Derby distance, and he picks up Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith for the first time Saturday. Asmussen loved the draw Tuesday and seems confident in this long shot.
A good bet? If he actually goes off at 20-1, he’s worth a win bit as a flier. As far as the exotics, he’s one of the best long-shot plays in the field. Would not be a surprise at all to see him among the leaders in the Derby stretch.
11. Dynamic One (20-1)
Need to know: One of four Todd Pletcher trainees, Dynamic One was a $725,000 purchase at the Keeneland yearling sale in September 2019 and took four tries to break his maiden before getting nailed at the wire by stablemate Bourbonic in the Wood Memorial next time out. The son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags has worked well at Churchill Downs, including a 4-furlong work in :47.80 — second-fastest of 108 works at that distance — last Friday. One-time Eclipse Award winner and perennial top jockey Jose Ortiz will be aboard.
A good bet? Some well-respected handicappers really like this colt’s chances, but his actual resume is suspect and other long shots look like better plays.
12. Helium (50-1)
Need to know: He won two races on an artificial surface in Canada last fall and made his 2021 debut — off a layoff of nearly five months — with an upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Hall of Famer Mark Casse decided to train him straight to May 1. That’ll make for an eight-week layoff. Aside from last year’s COVID-impacted Derby prep season, only one horse (Animal Kingdom, with a 42-day layoff in 2011) in the past 65 years has won the Derby off a layoff of more than five weeks. No horse, in records dating to 1929, has won the race coming from a layoff as long as Helium’s. His top Beyer (84) is among the lowest in the field. Churchill Downs veteran Julien Leparoux rides for the first time.
A good bet? Sure would’ve been nice to see him in one of the later preps. As is, it’s difficult to bet him based on his limited resume.
13. Hidden Stash (50-1)
Need to know: Buzz horse earlier in the year has yet to find the winner’s circle in three starts, including a second in the Tampa Bay Derby and a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. Bred for the Derby distance — sire is Constitution, damsire is Smart Strike — and the late-running colt should benefit from a pace Saturday that’s expected to be faster than what he’s seen in previous starts. He won at Churchill Downs last fall. First Derby starter for trainer Victoria Oliver.
A good bet? This seems like the type of horse that could sneak into the exotics Saturday. He should be running late, and his connections think he’ll love the distance. Perhaps he can get by enough tiring horses to hit the board at a big price.
14. Essential Quality (2-1)
Need to know: There’s not much more to say that hasn’t already been said. He’s the defending class champion, 5-for-5 with four graded stakes victories, and speed numbers that are at the top of this field. His style of running just off the leaders should be optimal for Saturday’s race. He’s training well at Churchill, where he broke his maiden last fall (on Kentucky Derby Day, no less). His connections have long thought he was suited for this distance and his sire is star stallion Tapit. Now, all he has to do is win.
A good bet? You can’t leave him out of the exotics. He’s just too good. Those 2-1 odds make him a hard win bet, though. There’s intriguing value elsewhere. Two options: play him on top of a trifecta/superfecta, and hope to get a long shot or two on the board. Or try to beat him with someone like Rock Your World or Hot Rod Charlie. Both are viable.
15. Rock Your World (5-1)
Need to know: A much-talked-about Derby contender even prior to his first start on dirt, Rock Your World won two races on turf before trainer John Sadler finally decided to roll the dice and enter him in the Santa Anita Derby, which he took by 4 ¼ lengths as the pacesetter, earning a 100 Beyer, best in the Derby field. He won that race going away despite setting strong fractions and trained very well at Santa Anita — home of all three of his starts — following the victory. Sadler decided to boot jockey Umberto Rispoli, who was aboard for all three wins, in favor of Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Derby with Orb and rode Hot Rod Charlie and Concert Tour during the prep season. “The analytics with Joel are so strong I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity,” Sadler said this week.
A good bet? If you’re looking to beat Essential Quality, this is your best bet. A clean run to the first turn gives him a great chance at the roses.
16. King Fury (20-1)
Need to know: Trained by Lexington’s Kenny McPeek and ridden by Louisville-based Brian Hernandez Jr., King Fury came roaring back into the Derby picture with an impressive win in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. It was his first race in more than four months after a disappointing end to his 2-year-old campaign. He earned a 96 Beyer for the victory and has developed into a bit of a buzz horse this week. He’s the only Derby contender with two wins at Churchill Downs, and the son of Curlin is another who should like the 1 ¼ miles.
A good bet? He’s one of the most intriguing long shots in this race. Difficult to leave him out of the exotic wagering, and — if he can move forward off that Lexington Stakes run — a win bet is not out of the question, especially at 20-1.
17. Highly Motivated (10-1)
Need to know: Four-time trainer of the year Chad Brown is back in the Derby for the first time since his runner-up finish with Good Magic three years ago. Highly Motivated won big at Keeneland last fall, encountered some trouble in his belated 2021 debut in New York in early March, then reaffirmed his promise by almost beating Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes, losing by a neck. Same sire, Into Mischief, as 2020 Derby champ Authentic. Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano goes for his first Derby win (0-for-14 so far).
A good bet? Lots of talent here, but he got an ideal pace setup in the Blue Grass and still couldn’t beat the champ. Things will be much tougher Saturday.
18. Super Stock (30-1)
Need to know: Trained by Steve Asmussen, this son of 2011 Derby favorite Dialed In pulled off a major upset in the Arkansas Derby, beating Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour from off the pace. That run was the best of his career, by far, and he had an ideal trip in a six-horse field with plenty of pace to run at that day. Super Stock was the only Arkansas Derby runner entered here, though four others had enough Derby points to make the field. With eight career starts, he’s the most seasoned Derby contender.
A good bet? An Arkansas Derby winner with a Hall of Fame trainer seems like a fine bet on paper at 30-1 odds, but Super Stock will need to make major gains and still get plenty of help to be in the mix Saturday. Not among the top long shots.
19. Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
Need to know: One of four horses in the field with just three career starts — that’s a record, by the way — Soup and Sandwich made his debut Jan. 28 and won his first two races by a combined 10 lengths. The beautiful gray colt — sired by Into Mischief, with Tapit as a damsire — ran up front in the Florida Derby and held on for second place just 58 days after his first race. Hall of Famer Mark Casse trains, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who swept all three Churchill Downs meets last year, rides. Soup and Sandwich should be up near the leaders in the early going.
A good bet? He’s still new to racing, but he’s already come a long way and is bred to go the Derby distance. Certainly one of the more intriguing long shots.
20. Bourbonic (30-1)
Need to know: The biggest stunner in a prep season heavy on upsets came via Bourbonic, who shocked the Wood Memorial field with a victory at 72-1 odds. The Calumet Farm homebred — trained by Todd Pletcher — had run claiming races in the past. He was last by a large margin going into the stretch of the Wood and still way off the lead at the eighth-pole before, somehow, nipping Dynamic One at the wire. His Beyer figure for that win was a meager 89 (and his career best before that was 76). His bloodlines are interesting, though. Son of Bernardini with Afleet Alex as a damsire and A.P. Indy as a grandsire.
A good bet? Surely lightning won’t strike twice. Look elsewhere for your long shots.
