Handicapping the 2023 Kentucky Derby: Best bets, long shots and more advice on the race
The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs, and this edition of the race won’t lack for intrigue.
There’s a clear and deserving favorite in Forte — winner of five straight, and the reigning champion in this 3-year-old group — but there also seems to be plenty of folks looking to bet against him this weekend. And they’ll have plenty of interesting alternatives.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice, Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire and Japanese mystery colt Derma Sotogake — runaway winner of the UAE Derby — are all priced at 10-1 or shorter on the morning line, and a compelling case can be made for any of those horses to be wearing the roses Saturday night. (Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move was also 10-1 on the morning line before he was scratched from the race Thursday.)
In what appears to be a relatively wide-open Derby, the pace scenario is an interesting one, and — as always in this 20-horse field — crucial to the way the race will unfold.
There’s no clear-cut pacesetter in this group, with long-shot Jace’s Road among the most likely to be in front in the early going. Fellow 50-1 shot Reincarnate — formerly trained by the suspended Bob Baffert — also typically likes to be on the lead, while Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Verifying and well-rested Rebel Stakes winner Confidence Game could be in the mix early, too. Derma Sotogake and Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns both looked good setting the pace in their last starts, but neither needs to be out front to put in a big performance.
And to make money on Derby Day, it obviously comes down to who’s running at the end.
Twelve of the past 15 Derbys have featured trifecta payouts of more than $1,000 on a $1 ticket, and the past four have all included a horse at odds of longer than 25-1 in the top three. Of course, last year’s race ended with 80-1 shot Rich Strike shocking the sport (and finishing on top of a trifecta that paid nearly $15,000 on a $1 ticket).
Here’s a look at the best bets — including some intriguing long shots — for this year’s race.
1. Hit Show (30-1)
Need to know: One of four in this field trained by Louisville native Brad Cox, the gray colt is the only horse in the race that has been favored in all of his previous starts. He won’t be Saturday. Hit Show started 2023 with a nice win in the Withers Stakes before losing the Wood Memorial on a head bob at the wire to 59-1 shot Lord Miles. He had to overcome a difficult outside post (and traffic in the stretch) in that one. The No. 1 post has not been kind to Derby starters. Only one horse in the past 60 years has won the Derby from the extreme inside post, and that was Ferdinand in 1986. A new starting gate was introduced in 2020 to remedy the issue, though it’s still not an optimal spot. Of note: his Beyer Speed Figures have improved over each start, topping out at 93 in the Wood.
A good bet? He was already up against it before the post-position draw. He hasn’t been overly impressive, and other long shots look like better bets.
2. Verifying (15-1)
Need to know: Another Brad Cox trainee, Verifying will likely be sent to the lead early from the No. 2 post, which hasn’t produced a winner since Affirmed in 1978. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify was fourth on a sloppy track in the Rebel Stakes before turning in a career-best performance — but finishing second to Tapit Trice — in the Blue Grass Stakes last month. That was his first start with jockey Tyler Gaffalione (winner of eight of the past nine Churchill Downs meet titles). He couldn’t beat Tapit Trice despite a perfect trip last time out, though his numbers say another step forward could be coming. The last father and son to win the Derby were Unbridled (1990) and Grindstone (1996).
A good bet? A case can certainly be made for him to finish in the money, but he’s unlikely to get another dream trip Saturday.
3. Two Phil’s (12-1)
Need to know: His 101 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby Steaks last time out is the best in 2023 by any 3-year-old at more than seven furlongs (and the highest of any horse in this race). That number came on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, however, and Two Phil’s finished nearly three lengths behind Angel of Empire in the Risen Star Stakes on dirt in his previous start. The son of 2007 Derby runner-up Hard Spun won a Grade 3 race in the slop at Churchill Downs to cap his 2-year-old season (three weeks after Derby favorite Forte beat him by 10 lengths at Keeneland). Derby newbie Jareth Loveberry will ride him for the eighth straight time. Trainer Larry Rivelli (another Derby first-timer) hopes Two Phil’s is a little off the pace but in front of all the traffic in the early going.
A good bet? The Jeff Ruby Steaks win was impressive, but not sure he has enough to hang with the top choices Saturday.
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
Need to know: A well-beaten third with no real excuse in the Lecomte Stakes in January, he returned five weeks later with a big, wide move in the stretch to win the Rebel Stakes at 18-1 odds in his first start over a sloppy track. And he hasn’t raced since. Confidence Game will come in off a 10-week layoff. Churchill Downs records, dating back to 1929, show that no horse has won the Derby off a layoff of more than seven weeks, and that was Authentic in the September 2020 race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux has been adamant that the time off will help his colt, and he did turn in a bullet workout (5 furlongs in :59 flat) last week. Confidence Game has more wins (two) and starts (four) at Churchill than any horse in the field.
A good bet? He’s an intriguing long shot, but that 10-week layoff is too unorthodox to overlook.
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
Need to know: A winner of four straight and the second choice on the morning line, Tapit Trice had to come from way back in the field — and was even off the screen in midstretch — to win the Tampa Bay Derby, a race that raised a lot of questions. He answered them next time out with a rousing victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. The big, gray colt has impressed at Churchill Downs over the past few weeks. His $1.3 million sale price as a yearling is the highest in this field, and he’s the son of Tapit, a three-time leading sire in North America whose progeny have accomplished just about everything on the track — except win a Kentucky Derby. Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for the past three wins.
A good bet? If you like him, bet him. But his tendency to break a bit slow and take a little while to get up to speed could be a major detriment in the chaos of a 20-horse field. And that could be his undoing Saturday.
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
Need to know: He joins Mage as the only two horses in this field unraced at 2 years old and with just three career starts. Justify is the only Derby winner in the past 140 years to check both of those boxes. And Big Brown is the only other since World War I to win the Derby with just three starts. Like those two, Kingsbarns comes into this race with an undefeated record. He showed a lot of grit in his Jan. 14 debut, sticking with it despite getting boxed in. He won his next start easily and then romped from gate to wire in the Louisiana Derby. He breaks extremely well and runs his race from there, and that should be a major plus in this 20-horse field. Eclipse-winning jockey Jose Ortiz rides for the first time.
A good bet? He has a lot of history to overcome, but the son of Uncle Mo looks like a potential star with a style that should fit this race. Include him in the exotic bets.
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
Need to know: He typically likes to be on or near the lead, but he wasn’t quick enough at the start of the Rebel Stakes and finished third. He then got a perfect trip near the lead in the Arkansas Derby, but Angel of Empire blew right by him early in the stretch. He held OK for third in that race. The only former Bob Baffert trainee in this race, Reincarnate was transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen before the Rebel. (Yakteen finished 12th and 15th with two well-regarded Baffert colts in last year’s Derby.) His running style is a good fit for three-time Derby winning jockey John Velazquez, who also wired the field with Medina Spirit in 2021 before that colt was DQ’d. Velazquez will be aboard Reincarnate for the fifth time Saturday.
A good bet? The most intriguing of the five 50-1 shots, but that doesn’t mean he should be on many of your tickets.
8. Mage (15-1)
Need to know: The other unraced-at-2 contender in this field, Mage won on the lead in his Jan. 28 debut, and the runner-up in that race won his next time out at Keeneland. Mage was thrown into the deep end for his second race: a date with reigning champion Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. There, he had a bad break, raced wide, had to pause in the stretch but still finished an OK fourth — nearly seven lengths behind Forte. In a rematch four weeks later, Mage made a huge move in the Florida Derby and led late in the stretch before Forte caught him to win by a length. All three of his races have been at Gulfstream Park, and Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano rides.
A good bet? His running style is still a mystery, but there’s clearly an abundance of talent here. Another step forward, and he could be in the thick of things Saturday.
9. Skinner (20-1)
Need to know: Just one win in six career starts, Skinner is nonetheless one of the most interesting colts in this field. The son of Curlin is likely to come from off the pace. He ran well from the back of the pack to get third behind Practical Move in the San Felipe Stakes before nearly knocking off that favorite in the Santa Anita Derby last month. He was arguably more impressive than both Practical Move and runner-up Mandarin Hero in that one, and he should be passing horses in the stretch Saturday. Reigning Santa Anita meet champion Juan Hernandez displaces Victor Espinoza to ride Skinner for the first time (in his first Derby). John Shirreffs won in 2005 with 50-1 shot Giacomo, and he’s most famous for training the great Zenyatta.
A good bet? Coming from the back on Derby Day can get you in trouble, but Skinner looks like a must-play in the trifecta and superfecta wagers.
10. Practical Move (SCRATCHED)
Need to know: Practical Move, a 10-1 choice on the morning line for trainer Tim Yakteen, was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Thursday afternoon after developing an elevated body temperature. He will be replaced in the field by Cyclone Mischief (30-1), who was an “also-eligible” entrant on Monday.
11. Disarm (30-1)
Need to know: A long shot with the same owner/trainer/jockey connections as Epicenter, who finished second behind Rich Strike as the favorite in last year’s Derby. Disarm’s résumé isn’t nearly as impressive. The son of Gun Runner — another star who had the same owner/trainer combo — finished a solid second behind front-running Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby — his stakes debut — before heading to the Lexington Stakes in search of last-minute Derby points. He finished third there to get into this race, but he didn’t look all that great doing it. Disarm did turn in a bullet workout nine days later at Churchill Downs for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has a record 24 Derby starters without a victory.
A good bet? The Lexington Stakes didn’t do much to boost confidence, but there are certainly worse picks among the longer shots in this race. He deserves a look for the exotic bets.
12. Jace’s Road (50-1)
Need to know: The least-regarded of the Brad Cox quartet, Jace’s Road has two wins in six starts but has been no better than third in his four graded-stakes attempts. To start the year, he was fifth — beaten 12 lengths on a sloppy track — in the Rebel Stakes, finding himself in great position to make a move but showing nothing at the end. In the Louisiana Derby, he raced just off of front-runner Kingsbarns, attempted a move around the final turn but was no match at all for the winner, finishing third behind him and Disarm. In two starts at Churchill, he finished third and eighth.
A good bet? He’s a good bet to get TV time early in the race and be out of it by the stretch.
13. Sun Thunder (50-1)
Need to know: A son of Into Mischief — the reigning four-time leading sire in North America — Sun Thunder has just one win in six starts, and that came on New Year’s Eve. In his past three races, he’s finished behind a total of six Derby rivals: Tapit Trice, Verifying, Kingsbarns, Disarm, Jace’s Road and Angel of Empire. (He did beat Two Phil’s and Raise Cain in that span.) In three of his four races in 2023, he’s been beaten by at least 6½ lengths. In the other, he finished a length behind Angel of Empire in the Risen Star Stakes — probably his best race to date. Neither his Louisiana Derby (fifth) nor Blue Grass Stakes (fourth) were as bad as they look on paper, and he does have a tendency to be running at the end of races. Trainer Kenny McPeek will add blinkers this time.
A good bet? You can never totally disregard Derby horses who could be running late, but he’ll need some help and a big step forward to hit the board.
14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
Need to know: Seemingly an afterthought in Brad Cox’s barn last fall, Angel of Empire has matured magnificently over the past few months and goes into Saturday as the Arkansas Derby winner and third choice on the morning line. The son of 2017 morning line Derby favorite Classic Empire has been improving with each race, none better than his 4¼-length romp in the Arkansas Derby, one of the most impressive prep performances of the spring. Flavien Prat was his fifth different jockey in five races for that one, and he’ll be back in the saddle Saturday. Before the Arkansas Derby, he finished ahead of Sun Thunder and Two Phil’s in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.
A good bet? If you’re looking to beat Forte, this might be your best bet. All signs point toward another step forward for Angel of Empire, who is likely to be coming a little off the pace but should be ready to make a big move at the end — as long as he gets a decent trip.
15. Forte (3-1)
Need to know: The reigning champion of this 3-year-old group after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2022, Forte has six wins in seven starts and hasn’t been beaten since last July. The buzz around his 2023 debut — an impressive romp in the Fountain of Youth Stakes — was tempered a bit four weeks later, when he dawdled around in the Florida Derby stretch. Forte was still fifth at the eighth pole in that one before surging past everyone to win by a length. He typically races a few lengths off the lead before unleashing a powerful move. Four-time and reigning Eclipse winner Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard for all seven races. Todd Pletcher has trained more Derby starters than anyone (with two wins). No Derby favorite has won since Justify in 2018, but nine of the past 11 have been either first or second. His damsire, Blame, ended Zenyatta’s perfect record in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.
A good bet? Is he the deserving favorite? Sure. Is he beatable? Sure seems that way. He might win Saturday, but he also might be leveling out, and it’s worth trying to find someone with longer odds for the win bet. Don’t leave him out of any of your exotic wagers, though.
16. Raise Cain (50-1)
Need to know: Raise Cain didn’t show much of note until his sixth career start: a 7½-length romp in the oddly run Gotham Stakes over a muddy Aqueduct track. In that March 4 race, Raise Cain ran in the back of the pack, checked up going into the stretch, swung out wide and left the rest of the field — with the exception of a loose, riderless horse — in the dust. He finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes five weeks later, again racing at the back of the field before making a late run (but never getting close to Tapit Trice or Verifying). Fellow long-shot Jace’s Road beat him by 5-plus lengths on Dec. 26. His career debut at Churchill last fall resulted in an eighth-place finish. He and Forte share the same sire: Violence.
A good bet? His Blue Grass run wasn’t as bad as it sounds, but he’s unlikely to be a factor Saturday.
17. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
Need to know: The well-traveled Derma Sotogake ran six races in Japan last year, finished third in the Saudi Derby on Feb. 25, romped in the UAE Derby in Dubai on March 25, flew from Dubai to Chicago on April 5, and arrived in Louisville three days later. He’s up against history. Eighteen UAE Derby runners since 2000 have attempted the Kentucky Derby, and none has finished better than fifth. The last horse to race outside North America and then finish in the top three on Derby Day was runner-up Bold Arrangement in 1986. A total of 42 such horses have tried it since. But … Derma Sotogake’s UAE Derby win was perhaps the most impressive of this entire prep season, and Japanese horses have been on a heater. They finished 1-2-3-4 in that race, with a Dubai World Cup victory later in the day. Two Japan-based horses won Breeders’ Cup races in 2021. And Japanese shipper Mandarin Hero — considered a peg or two below Derma Sotogake — nearly knocked off Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby last month. One more bit of history: No starter from the No. 17 post has won the Kentucky Derby.
A good bet? Yes, Derby history is against him, but it appears Derma Sotogake could be the class of this field. If all that travel hasn’t taken it out of him, he’s the pick to be wearing the roses Saturday night.
18. Rocket Can (30-1)
Need to know: The impressive winner of the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 4 was second to a more impressive Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks later. Rocket Can moved to Arkansas after that and looked fine as the fourth-place finisher in the Arkansas Derby, but he had nothing for Angel of Empire on that day. He’s been doing well at Churchill Downs, where he broke his maiden last fall and fired off a bullet workout 12 days after his Arkansas Derby defeat. A son of top sire Into Mischief, his damsire is Tapit. The gray colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who won the Derby with Country House four years ago and will put blinkers on Rocket Can on Saturday. “Visually, for me, they appear to be helping,” Mott said.
A good bet? Rocket Can looks like he should get the Derby distance, and — of the nine horses at 30-1 or longer — he might have the best chance to finish in the money.
19. Lord Miles (SCRATCHED)
Need to know: Lord Miles, winner of the Wood Memorial and a 30-1 shot on the Derby morning line, was scratched from the race following the indefinite suspension of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who received the punishment from Churchill Downs on Thursday afternoon. Two of Joseph’s horses died after collapsing at the track earlier this week.
20. Continuar (SCRATCHED)
Need to know: Continuar, one of three Japanese horses entered in this year’s Kentucky Derby, was scratched from the race Thursday night after his trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, decided that he was not at the necessary fitness level required to take part in the Derby. “Considering the future of the horse and the fact that we cannot show the horse’s true ability in his current state, we have decided to scratch Continuar from the Kentucky Derby,” he said. Continuar had morning-line odds of 50-1.
21. Cyclone Mischief (30-1)
Need to know: Drawing in after the scratch of Practical Move on Thursday afternoon, Cyclone Mischief adds another long shot to a race already filled with them. The son of Into Mischief is trained by Louisville native Dale Romans (no wins with 11 career Derby starters) and didn’t fare well on the Gulfstream Park prep circuit, finishing seventh in the Holy Bull Stakes in January, then third (behind Forte) in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He typically likes to race right off the lead — even set the pace in the Fountain of Youth — and his Beyer numbers have improved with each start this year, topping out at 91 in the Florida Derby despite being forced to race wide all the way around. Only start at Churchill Downs was a seventh-place finish in November.
A good bet? He’s certainly not the worst-looking of the long shots in this race, and the best chance might be to send him to the lead early, but he’ll have a hard time hanging with this group.
22. Mandarin Hero (20-1)
Need to know: Winner of four straight races in his native Japan as a 2-year-old, Mandarin Hero’s perfect record ended with a narrow loss in a stakes race in February to begin his 3-year-old campaign. From there, he was shipped to California, where he nearly pulled off an upset in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, showing an impressive turn of foot and nearly catching favorite Practical Move at the wire. Practical Move won by a nose, but Mandarin Hero turned heads with his performance — the run earned a 100 Beyer in his U.S. debut — and he’ll be a live long shot for the Kentucky Derby now that he’s drawn into the race. He’s the son of Shanghai Bobby, the 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in 2012, and a possible Kentucky Derby favorite himself before an injury derailed his 3-year-old season.
A good bet? Now that he’s in the race, Mandarin Hero is a must-play in the exotics. Don’t be surprised if he’s in the mix and running hard at the end Saturday.
23. King Russell (50-1)
Need to know: The son of Creative Cause got into the race following the scratch of fellow long-shot Continuar on Thursday night. The gray colt took five tries to break his maiden, finally landing his first win in February on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. After that, he impressed at 58-1 odds in the Arkansas Derby, finishing in second place — 4¼ lengths behind Angel of Empire — following a gutsy rally from the back of the pack. That race earned King Russell a career-best 87 Beyer, which is still the lowest career-high in this field. (And his previous high was a 78.) He typically attempts to make a run from the back, and he has finished in the top two in each of his four races this year (all at Oaklawn). His career debut came at Churchill Downs last September — a fifth-place finish.
A good bet? One of the more intriguing 50-1 shots in the field, it’s not completely implausible to envision King Russell picking off enough tired horses to hit the board Saturday. He’ll need to take a major step forward to do so, but his Arkansas Derby run at least offers some hope.
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