Handicapping the Coming Antitrust Battles Over Google and Amazon: Data Sheet

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In late February I published a short piece in Fortune suggesting that a new regulatory wave generally–and an increased focused on antitrust enforcement specifically–was about to hit the biggest technology companies.

Since then, as often is the case where the main actors in a drama are regulators and legislators, almost nothing has happened. Congress has made little progress on a privacy law to override a soon-to-be-enacted provision in California. Though Facebook has said that the Federal Trade Commission is about to fine it billions of dollars, it hasn’t. The Justice Department, humbled in its quixotic attempt to stop AT&T from acquiring Time Warner, hasn’t moved against a Silicon Valley hegemon.

And yet the drumbeat grows louder. The New York Times reports that the FTC and Justice have drawn an antitrust Tordesillas meridian, with the FTC turning its sights on Amazon’s market power in retailing and Justice focusing on the effect Google has on competing e-commerce sites. (The Wall Street Journal said last week the Justice Department is readying a case against Google; read closely, and it’s clear all these investigations—not including the FTC’s coming action against Facebook—are preliminary.)

If these cases get going, they’ll turn wonky fast. The high level is what will matter. Modern antitrust theory zeroes in on consumer harm, typically measured by higher prices. Google (whose services are free) and Amazon (which relentlessly drives down prices) won’t be susceptible to such arguments. Instead, regulators and courts will need to agree that harm done to competitors is reason enough to punish the behemoths.

The battle will not be short.

Adam Lashinsky @adamlashinsky adam_lashinsky@fortune.com