What happened to Evans in Fayetteville mayor’s race? Why Colvin paced far ahead of field

I knew former county commissioner Charles Evans faced a steep climb in trying to topple three-term incumbent Mitch Colvin in the mayor’s race.

I did not know until Tuesday evening how much of a climb: Evans placed third of four candidates in that day’s primary for the mayor’s seat.

More: Mitch Colvin and Freddie de la Cruz will face off for mayor in Fayetteville general election

Colvin easily led the field with 61% of the vote, 6,472 votes, followed by Freddie de la Cruz, with 22% and 2,339 votes, according to unofficial results from the N.C. State Board of Elections.

The results set up a Nov. 7 general election rematch between Colvin and de la Cruz. They went head-to-head in July of last year, a race Colvin won in a landslide.

More: Pitts: Could former Cumberland Commissioner Evans be the one to beat Fayetteville Mayor Colvin?

In Tuesday's primary, Evans drew 16% of the vote, 1,736 votes, followed by Quancadine-Hinson Gribble with just over 1%, 142 votes. Voters cast 10,735 ballots, representing just 8.4% of the electorate, in unofficial results.

Evans’ big loss was a dramatic comedown for the popular former commissioner, who served 16 years, including a time as chairperson. Evans, like Colvin, was able to win at-large as a Black candidate by building a diverse coalition with Black voters as the base.

More: 2023 Election Coverage: The Fayetteville Observer

He measured up well against the Colvin — was the conventional thinking. Some speculated he could be the one to knock Colvin off, the mayor having so far cruised in his reelection bids.

I reached out to Evans by text Tuesday night after results came in and he gave me a rare no comment.

He texted before 9 o’clock on Wednesday to say he had been digesting the loss the previous evening and was not up for an interview at that time. I told him I understood that.

He conceded that Colvin’s message had resonated. He referred to the mayor as his “little brother,” a somewhat dubious term of endearment that Evans has taken to calling the younger politician.

I wonder if the shorter campaign calendar gave Evans too little time to roll out the in-person, retail politics he is known for. They were a strength of his commissioner campaigns, where he traveled the whole county.

Council elections are usually held every two years but are happening in back-to-back years because of a delay in the 2021 election that was in turn caused by the U.S. Census delay.

The calendar may not have made much difference in the end. When it comes to retail politics, the mayor is good at that, too. He knows everybody, due in no small part to his role as a second-generation funeral home owner whose staff has funeralized a good-size portion of the city’s Black community, from all walks of life.

“People like Mitch,” Evans said.

The race became tense at a times in an otherwise quiet primary season. On social media, some African Americans expressed anger Evans declared a run against Colvin, which took the local political scene off-guard.

The mayoral race was not Evans’ first unexpected run. Last year he launched a longshot bid for the 7th Congressional District for U.S. Congress and fell short in the Democratic primary.

On Wednesday, Evans said: “I will vote for my little brother. Family disagree but at the end of the day you’re still family.”

De la Cruz: More voters will turn out in November

Meanwhile, de la Cruz has to figure out how to turn the tide against Colvin, who won their general election matchup in 2022 with 63% of the vote.

De la Cruz told me Tuesday night his plan will be boosting voter turnout. He said his unexpected win over a high-profile politician like Evans will help draw him name recognition. More people will believe he is the real deal and be receptive to his message, he said. That will in turn bring more voters to the polls, he hopes.

“I’m almost confident that over 25,000 voters are going to come out during this election — at least,” he said. “And that would be a record.”

In last year's general election in July, just under 15,000 voters cast ballots, a turnout of 11.8%, according to figures from the Cumberland County Board of Elections. Many residents were likely not aware of the election, held during summer vacation season.

De la Cruz is a registered Republican and he said that Republican John Szoka earned thousands of votes in Fayetteville in his runs for office. Szoka for 10 years represented District 45, which includes part of the city.

“Now I know this is a nonpartisan race, but this is politics,” de la Cruz said.

Colvin is still a heavy favorite in my view, but politics can sometimes surprise, as we have already seen.

Incumbents Ingram, Dawkins trail

Speaking of surprises: Incumbents Shakeyla Ingram in District 2 and Johnny Dawkins in District 5 both found themselves trailing two newcomers to politics after Tuesday’s primary.

In District 2, Malik Davis won 34%, 520 votes, placing ahead of Ingram, who had 21%, 319 votes, in unofficial results..

The primary for the district, which represents part of downtown and some of the city’s greatest wealth as well as its peaks of poverty, was crowded as is normal, with seven candidates competing.

That Davis was able to garner such a large share of the vote against several candidates is itself impressive.

No one would be wise to count Ingram out, however. The incumbent has overcome big odds before. Narrowing the large field of candidates down to two also means there will be a large group of voters without a candidate for the general — and who are theoretically ripe for wooing.

Term limits vs the opposite

I interviewed Lynne Bissette Greene for “Candidate Conversations,” a program The Fayetteville Observer does with our radio partner, WIDU, 99.7 FM. Interviews in all the council races, plus races for Hope Mills Board of Commissioners and Spring Lake Board of Aldermen are online. Follow fayobserver.com and The Fayetteville Observer for a guide to election coverage.

Greene, who is in her first City Council race, said in her interview she believed in term limits.

“I believe personally that six years is the maximum anybody should serve,” she said.

Dawkins, as it happens, is nearing the end of his third term in District 5 — six years. Earlier, he served a single two-year term in District 9..

As with Ingram, no one should count Dawkins out. He knows how to win.

He can get out there, campaign and meet new folks with the best of them.

Just a little something he picked up from his daddy, the late J.L. Dawkins, who people called “mayor for life.”

Myron B. Pitts can be reached at mpitts@fayobserver.com or 910-486-3559.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: A county favorite fizzles in Fayetteville mayor's race; surprises in the districts