What happened to winter: This year has been a dud if you love the snow. Can we still expect any?

After a gorgeous weekend and temperatures expected to be in the 60s again Monday and upper 50s Tuesday, those wishing for some days of curling up with a good book by the fireplace as snow falls outside their windows are quickly running out of time for their hopes to come true. Spring officially begins in two weeks. Meteorological spring is already here.

According to Weather Underground, the Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport recorded high temperatures in the 50s or higher 20 times in the month of February and 60 or higher 10 times. January had 15 days with a high at 50 or above and December had nine. And snowfall has been almost nonexistent.

So will we see any snow before we head into the spring and summer months? The short answer: maybe.

While the weather this winter has seemed somewhat unexpected, it isn't if you study weather. Aubrey Urbanowicz is the chief meteorologist for WHSV in Harrisonburg. She said this warmer than usual winter wasn't a surprise for her or others in her field. The Shenandoah Valley was about 7 degrees above average in February.

"There's a lot of driving forces that go into winter weather forecasts and the main patterns going into cooler months," she said. "And this is a La Nina winter."

La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, according to the National Weather Service. These effects are usually strongest during the winter months, the NWS explained on its website, when the jet stream is strongest over the United States causing colder and stormier than average conditions across the North and warmer and less stormier conditions across the south.

Urbanowicz said it's unusual because this is the third La Nina in a row. Typically they only happen for one year before the weather pattern changes. Sometimes they happen in back-to-back years. Three years in a row is not usual, although it has happened before.

"La Nina winters in the Mid-Atlantic are typically snow duds," she said.

We got 1.1 inches of snow December through February, according to Urbanowicz.

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That's been good news for area schools. Staunton, Waynesboro and Augusta County public schools have only missed two days of school this year for winter weather. According to Ryan Barber, Waynesboro's assistant superintendent, one of those days was for icy conditions and the other was for "forecasted wintry weather."

Augusta County and Waynesboro also had four delays and Staunton had three, again due to ice and sleet. Days off for building snow forts or sledding have not happened this winter.

"The lack of unexpected closures and delays has allowed for continuity of instruction that, in the past, has been a major disruption when winter weather is more pervasive," said Miranda Ball with Augusta County Public Schools. "Unexpected closures prevent teachers from implementing lesson plans as designed and we are fortunate to have avoided this circumstance to this point in the winter."

The lack of closures this winter won't change anything as far as when students get out for the summer. Barber said Waynesboro greatly exceeds the number of instructional hours required by Virginia.

"As a result, unless there were a significant number of closings and delays, changes to the calendar, either shortening or lengthening the school year, would be unusual," Barber said.

Urbanowicz said this February is in the top 10 of the warmest Februarys, but that isn't historically significant. It wasn't in the top five and there weren't any records for warm days being broken. As far as winter, she said it's in the top five warmest.

"I think the reason it also seems quite warm is we did not have a lot of snow this winter," she said. "Which can happen. We don't have big storms every year. It goes back-and-forth, it really does."

So how about the question we raised earlier, will we see any snow before March ends?

"Precipitation forecasts are pretty good, honestly, about five days out," Urbanowicz said. "Anything more than that is not reliable."

She said there's always a storm system beyond that five-day period that meteorologists are watching that can change weather in the area. She does anticipate cooler-than-average temperatures the rest of March, but average temperatures in March are usually in the 50s, so cooler may only mean in the 40s and that doesn't necessarily translate to snow.

So, again, is snow possible? Maybe.

"Yes, we can get big snows in March, we have a history of that," Urbanowicz said. "But it's very difficult or starts to get more difficult the later you go into the month with getting accumulating snow especially during the day time. You really need a nighttime event because the sun angle is getting higher and higher in the sky."

That being said, Urbanowicz said the cooler-than-normal temperatures could mean snow but there are no guarantees. She said the biggest issue this year has been when the storm system was in place the temperatures weren't cold enough and when we did have cold air there was no moisture. She pointed to the very cold temperatures in late December, saying a lack of moisture meant no white Christmas.

"In the Mid-Atlantic you have to have the perfect timing with the moisture, with the storm track, which is obviously very important, as well as temperatures," she said. "Sometimes they don't always mesh up."

But snow lovers, keep the faith. Staunton did see some snow last April, so anything is possible.

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— Patrick Hite is a reporter at The News Leader. Story ideas and tips always welcome. Contact Patrick (he/him/his) at phite@newsleader.com and follow him on Twitter @Patrick_Hite. Subscribe to us at newsleader.com.

This article originally appeared on Staunton News Leader: What happened to winter? It's been a dud of a year for snow lovers