What happens if John Curtis swaps the House for the Senate?

Congressional hopefuls are eyeing what could be another open-seat election in Utah as Rep. John Curtis looks increasingly likely to swap a 2024 House campaign for a Senate one.

The 3rd Congressional District congressman, who was first elected in 2017, shook up an already tumultuous Utah political landscape when he declared he was taking a “fresh look” at replacing outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney, who said in September he would not seek reelection.

The about-face from Curtis’ October decision to “stay out of the U.S. Senate race” follows an organized effort by donors and constituents to persuade him to launch a Senate campaign and sets the stage for a similar scramble to recruit candidates to run for his 3rd District seat.

Something Curtis, and his longtime campaign manager, Adrielle Herring, are happy to see.

“As someone responsible for the strategy and moving parts of John’s campaigns for the last six years, it’s my responsibility to be ready for any decision he makes,” Herring told the Deseret News Monday, about a possible Senate run. “Clearly, I would not be doing my job if I wasn’t preparing for the potential decision of him running. I would expect, and I know John expects that likewise, anybody interested in replacing him should be preparing to launch their own campaign.”

Who might run for Curtis’ seat if he launches a Senate campaign?

Potential candidates are already laying the groundwork for a House bid if Curtis decides to run for Senate, according to exclusive confirmations given to the Deseret News.

State Sen. Mike Kennedy is exploring a campaign for Utah’s 3rd Congressional District — which includes the Wasatch Front from Provo to Sandy and nearly all of eastern Utah — he told the Deseret News.

“Sen. Mike Kennedy is a common sense, conservative fighter who brings people together and gets results. He would be a great representative in Congress and that’s why several people are urging him to run,” a Kennedy spokesperson said.

This would not be Kennedy’s first try at an open seat. He was elected to the Utah House in 2012 to fill a seat left vacant by John Dougall when he ran for state auditor.

Kennedy left the state legislature to challenge Sen. Mitt Romney for U.S. Senate in the 2018 Republican primary, beating him at the GOP convention before losing in the primary election.

Kennedy returned to state politics in 2020 when he won a special election to represent Utah County in the state Senate where he has sponsored bills that ban transgender surgeries for Utah youth and prohibit employers from requiring COVID-19 vaccines.

Dougall — known on the campaign trail as John “Frugal” Dougall — also expressed an interest in running for Curtis’ seat during a conversation with the Deseret News.

“I’ve had various folks call me to ask me to consider running for Congress,” Dougall said. “Congress is fiscally irresponsible. And it’s time for additional leadership on fiscal responsibility.”

Dougall took over the state auditor’s office in 2013 after ousting a longtime incumbent in a primary election. As auditor, Dougall has reviewed the state’s COVID-19 expenditures and database security.

Prior to his election as auditor, Dougall served for 10 years as a state lawmaker, where he championed tax reform and government transparency.

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As Curtis appears to shift lanes from the House to the Senate, more than one Senate candidate may do the reverse.

Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird Jr. announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate in mid-September. While Bird says he currently has no plans to change direction with his campaign, that hasn’t stopped people from urging him to take a look at Curtis’ seat.

“I’ve had a lot of people reach out, actually,” Bird said. “For now, I’m 100% focused on the Senate race.”

Before becoming mayor in 2017, Bird founded Paragon Oilfield Products, which provides pipes and hoses for industrial and agricultural use. Bird’s Senate campaign has focused on his rural background, limited government and securing the southern border.

Carolyn Phippen, another U.S. Senate candidate, may also “look to start in Triple A instead of MLB,” and exchange a statewide race for a 3rd District race, according to Kirk Jowers, former director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Other potential candidates who might throw their hat in the ring include former 3rd District candidate Stewart Peay, Utah County Commissioner Amelia Powers Gardner and former 2nd District candidate Bruce Hough, Jowers said.

Tanner Ainge, who ran against Curtis to represent the 3rd District in 2017, and Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, who previously represented Spanish Fork in the Utah Senate, also appear to be well-positioned to launch congressional campaigns.

Why did John Curtis change his mind about running for U.S. Senate?

Just as Romney’s delayed announcement regarding his intention to seek reelection created uncertainty for those considering a Senate run, Curtis’ back-and-forth has caused head scratching in Utah political circles as well.

Curtis initially expressed interest in running for Romney’s seat after the junior senator revealed he would not be seeking reelection. But Curtis quickly ruled out the possibility, saying in an op-ed for the Deseret News that a Senate campaign did not align with his commitments to his district or his “personal priorities.”

A month later, Curtis changed his tune, saying the voices urging him to run for the Senate had become “increasingly difficult to ignore.”

Herring, who has been running campaigns for over a decade, provided context to explain why.

“During my career in politics, I have never seen anything even close to the outpouring of requests for him to reconsider,” Herring told the Deseret News Monday.

“Every candidate has people around them encouraging them to run but this is much different than that and includes people that have never met John, people that know him well, people that have not always agreed with him, and even his wife and children. Clearly, this has had an impact on his willingness to reconsider his decision,” she said.

Curtis’ shift from where he stood less than two months ago also likely has something to do with what he sees as a deficit in the current candidate lineup, Jowers said in an interview with the Deseret News.

“I know that Rep. Curtis was sincere when he wrote that Deseret News piece taking his name out of the running,” Jowers said. “He hoped that there would be someone else who would represent the same values he has and could be an effective senator and then he would have the best of both worlds — he could continue to represent the 3rd District and have another ally in the Senate with whom he could collaborate. Unfortunately, I would imagine, he feels like none of the current candidates would be able to fill that role.”

Curtis thought, “If no one’s going to fill that role, I better do it,” Jowers said.

If he were to enter the race, Curtis would join a growing field of seven candidates, which includes Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, Bird and Phippen, among others.

While Wilson has already amassed a formidable war chest and scored an endorsement from Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, and Staggs got ahead with an early start and national recognition from conservative media, Curtis wouldn’t be thinking about entering the race unless the facts on the ground ensured a likely win, according to Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

“It just has to be said, he’s reconsidering because groups have come to him, willing to support him, and he’s reevaluated his intentions for the race, his long-term ambitions, and whether or not he has a path to victory,” Perry told the Deseret News.

Related

• Rep. John Curtis says he might change his mind and run for Senate after all

• Rep. John Curtis says he won’t run for Mitt Romney’s Senate seat

When Curtis reopened the door to a Senate campaign earlier this month, he referenced a “drumbeat from Utahns around the state asking me to reconsider my decision.”

The statement coincided with an  $89,000 ad buy, paid for by the mysterious Conservative Values for Utah PAC, that touts Curtis’ business acumen as former mayor of Provo and his innovative energy policy in Congress and calls on Utahns to pressure Curtis into a Senate run.

While it’s uncertain who’s behind the effort to draft Curtis to the Senate, he seems to have garnered good favor among Romney supporters.

“People who have been in Washington, D.C., and in the orbit of Sen. Romney have been looking at candidates and several of them seem to be supportive of John Curtis given their history with him as a member of Congress,” Perry said.

But the deciding factor for Curtis may simply be a desire for a change of scenery, Perry said, exchanging the often difficult legislative environment of the House for the collaboration of the Senate.

“(The Senate) is a very different atmosphere, a different sense of collegiality, and most of the time it’s a little different in terms of the divisiveness,” Perry said. “And you start feeling like you might be able to get more done.”