How harsh reality of the Marlins’ farm system was reinforced in recent days. What to know

As the top farm system evaluators for national publications release their annual lists of MLB’s top prospects, the Marlins’ reality has begun to sink in:

Their current collection of prospects has devolved into one of the lowest rated in baseball.

When that happens to a franchise that can afford only a bottom-third payroll, that’s generally a formula for lots of long-term losing.

That’s why Marlins owner Bruce Sherman’s decision to hire Peter Bendix to revamp the team’s amateur scouting and development was thoroughly justified. And that’s why Bendix, the Marlins’ new president/baseball operations, has made both of those areas a priority over virtually everything else.

Bendix hired Frankie Piliere as the team’s new director of amateur scouting; he had been an assistant amateur scouting director with the Seattle Mariners. That was one of several front-office hires designed to alter the direction of a franchise that, to this point, had lacked the ability to execute a viable formula for sustained success.

A person below Bendix in the Marlins’ reshaped front office described the farm system as being in poor shape, bereft of adequate depth or talent from a hitting and pitching perspective.

There are individual prospects that the new regime likes, a group including but not limited to pitcher Noble Meyer and outfielder Victor Mesa Jr.

But the view internally and externally is that the Marlins’ farm system doesn’t merely need a little work; it needs a lot of work.

Last week, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rated the Marlins farm system next to last in MLB, ahead of only the Angels.

McDaniel said: “There have been some solid recent graduations in Miami, with Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera all either in the big league rotation or expected to join soon. I also liked the bold decision Miami made to take the top two prep pitchers in the 2023 draft — Noble Meyer and Thomas White — along with thumpers Kemp Alderman and Brock Vradenburg soon after.

“But there have also been some clear negative results in the system as of late. Dax Fulton was progressing well but got his second elbow surgery, Marco Vargas was traded to the Mets for a rental reliever (though the Fish made the playoffs), and there wasn’t a notable jump forward in the system with a number of half or full steps back. After coming from the Rays,... Peter Bendix will likely take an infrastructure-and-process oriented view to building things back up and there’s a good bit of work to be done.”

The top 100 prospect lists released in recent days by McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law also offer some sobering perspective.

McDaniel and Law have only one Marlin in each of their top 100 prospect rankings — 2023 first-round pick Meyer, the former prep pitcher from Oregon. Law rates him 92nd. Here’s what McDaniel said in ranking Meyer 76th:

“Meyer wasn’t especially well known as a high school underclassman, but announced himself loudly on the summer showcase circuit as a pitcher who belonged in the top tier of prep arms in the 2023 class, if not the top. In the spring, he solidified his place at the top with upper-90s velocity, a plus-plus breaking ball and a solid performance in front of triple-digit numbers of scouts at the NHSI tournament in North Carolina.

“The Marlins took Meyer with the No. 10 overall pick in a draft where the next prep pitcher didn’t go until the No. 33 pick. Best prep arm in the 2023 draft class has a plus-plus breaking ball and has been into the upper-90s with all the traits you could want.”

MLB Pipeline’s most recent farm system grades has the Marlins 24th, down from sixth 22 months ago.

Bleacher Report rates the Marlins system 29th — the same spot where the Marlins are ranked by ESPN’s McDaniel.

If the Marlins need help at any position during the season, there’s not a single highly rated position prospect who appears to be ready, with the possible exception of first baseman Troy Johnston. (Infielder Xavier Edwards would be on that list if he doesn’t win a job in spring training.)

Third baseman Jacob Berry, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2022 draft, hit .233, with nine homers and 59 RBI in two levels of A ball last season. In a somewhat encouraging sign, Berry hit .265 with seven extra-base hits and only six strikeouts in 76 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League.

Baseball America’s Peter Flaherty, on a winter podcast, said: “What you’re seeing now [with Berry] is what you’re going to get. You are looking at a first base/DH type. Below average hit tool. There’s not really a tool that you can look at with him and say ‘at least he does this really really well.’ He was solid in the Arizona Fall League,... nothing unbelievable.”

Former third-round pick Peyton Burdick, one of the highest-drafted outfielders in the system, was designated for assignment on Friday after batting .200 and striking out 53 times in 139 career big league at bats.

What about Johnston, who was unprotected but not selected in the Rule 5 draft this past winter?

“The production is certainly there; he’s on the older side, 26,” Flaherty said. “The bat is very hard to ignore. He led minor league baseball with 116 RBI between Double and Triple A. He’s got above average bat speed. He does big time damage to all fields, does a great job of getting the ball in the air. The raw power is absolutely plus. Typical first base profile. There’s 25 plus home run upside with him. There’s a chance to be an average big leaguer.”

Infielder Yiddi Cappe, outfielder Alderman, first baseman Vrandenburg and outfielder Mark Colly are all a ways away, if they make it to the big leagues.

Flaherty, on the podcast, said there’s not a single position player in the system that can be projected as an All Star and that it wasn’t clear who even deserved to be ranked as Miami’s top position prospect.

“You’re looking at Xavier Edwards,... Troy Johnston,” Flaherty said. “It’s really thin. At the top, it’s pick your poison… There aren’t very many guys you can point to and say, ‘I feel very comfortable with him being a solid big league regular some day.’”

Among pitchers, the Marlins’ best prospects are Noble Meyer (likely a ways away) and Max Meyer (coming back from Tommy John surgery). Max Meyer will have a chance to win a rotation spot this spring.

But every other top flight starting pitcher needs more time in the minors, including White (Baseball America’s No. 3 Marlins prospect, behind Noble Meyer and Max Meyer), lefty Fulton and right-handers Jacob Miller and Karson Milbrandt.

“White is a little further away than even Noble Meyer,” Flaherty said. “Max is a power arm they’re very excited about. There’s third starter upside with him.”

The Marlins view Max Meyer as a starter, but Flaherty said: “I think he could be a very good late inning reliever with that slider he has.”

In fairness to DJ Svihlik, who was dismissed as the Marlins’ amateur scouting director before Bendix’s hiring, former Marlins general manager Kim Ng traded many of his high draft picks for veteran help, including Jake Eder, J.J. Bleday, Kahlil Watson, Kameron Misner, Kyle Nicolas, Connor Scott, Brady Allen and Kyle Hurt. But those players either haven’t reached the majors or (in Bleday’s case) performed poorly when they have.

So where is the Marlins’ farm system overall?

“They’re in a very precarious situation right now,” Flaherty said.