Haywood economy is booming

Dec. 2—Economic indicators show that Haywood County is on a growth spurt — one that shows no signs of slowing down.

The unemployment rate continues to drop in the county, construction is up markedly and so are wages. Tourism is booming, based on an enormous increase in the room tax on overnight lodging, and retail sales are up based on sales tax numbers.

While home sales have begun to level off and sale prices are stabilizing following a period of unprecedented growth, the real estate market remains strong, and the number of new building permits remains high.

Haywood-based Tom Tveidt of Syneva Economics studies economic trends by collecting government data readily available, but sometimes hard to find. He has a contract with the Haywood County Chamber of Commerce to keep tabs on trends in the county.

"The local economy is in a really good position right now," said Tveidt in a recent interview. "It is really strong. The fed is trying to calm things down to beat inflation back, and that should slow the national economy down, but they've been doing it for nine months. It's surprising it hasn't had a stronger impact here."

Wages in the county grew 11.5% from a year ago, with the average weekly wage now standing at $843.

"It's healthy growth," Tveidt said of local wages, "but it's still lower than the state."

Statistics show the average weekly wage in North Carolina is $1,161, while the national wage is $1,294.

As in 99 other counties of North Carolina, unemployment rates are still decreasing compared to last year.

Haywood County's rate, which stood at 2.7% according to the latest data reported by the N.C. Department of Commerce, was the third lowest in the state.

There are 17,371 individuals employed in Haywood, while 823 are looking for work.

Real estate

Home sales dropped from 1,037 in September 2021 to 889 in September 2022, a 14.3% decrease. Meanwhile, home sales in October declined 23% year-over-year.

"This year's pace of real estate sales is definitely below last year's," Tveidt said. "However, home sales were unusually high in both 2021 and 2020."

Despite the pace beginning to level off, the number of home sales this year is still high when compared to 2017, 2018 and 2019 prior to the real estate explosion.

Home sales prices declined 5% this October compared to last October. But the modest decline pales in comparison to growth in real estate prices over the past three years.

"The average price surged 22.4% in 2021 and 15.4% in 2020," Tveidt said. "By contrast, the 2018 to 2019 increase was just 1.6%."

The inventory of homes on the market is also up, and homes are beginning to sell less quickly — a sign the market could be headed for a correction. But given the unprecedented seller's market over the past year, there's a long way to go before supply-and-demand reach an equilibrium.

Inventory of homes for sale dropped as low 200 homes in late 2021 and early this year, as buyers snatched homes as quickly as they came on the market.

"By comparison, the average number of homes for sale each month had been around 400 to 500 in prior years. So inventory is slowly rebuilding, but is still well below our historic numbers, with the low supply supporting the increase in prices," Tveidt said.

The number of building permits is also up markedly, Tveidt said, noting that only tracks building permits issued from the county — which includes Canton, Clyde and Maggie Valley, but not Waynesville.

"Currently, the total value of county building permits is $109.5 million through September, up 12.8% over last year," Tveidt said. "The number of permits is up by 4.8%."

During the first three quarters of the year, the total value of building permits issued during 2017-2020 was $46.9 million. During that same period for 2021 and 2022, the value was $103.3 million — an increase of 120%.

New residential permitting shows a similar pattern. January to September permit values totaled $30.9 million between 2017 and 2020, while the past two years are at $71.7 million during the same nine months, an increase of 132%, he said.

Future is strong

"We've done great and we are in a great position," Tveidt said, "especially when you look at the number of people employed, tourism numbers and retail sales. Everything is strong."

Receipts from occupancy taxes, a 4% room tax on overnight accommodations, reached an all-time high during the pandemic and continued that growth into 2021 and 2022 — bringing in $2.2 million year-to-date, an increase of 5.9%.

Likewise, retail sales, grew by 8.2%, generating nearly $758,000 in the county year-to-date.

Looking toward the future, Tveidt said he sees no weaknesses.

"There are definitely good times ahead for almost everything I look at," he said. "I suspect the pace will continue at this rate for the foreseeable future."