Health officials predict COVID-19 surge to last through holiday season

Nov. 18—Call it the season of fruitcake and face masks.

New Mexico health officials on Thursday urged state residents to dust off their masks and don them at large gatherings and travel centers as they head into yet another stretch of coronavirus-heavy holidays.

The state is about four weeks into a projected eight-week peak in new COVID-19 cases, officials said at a virtual news conference, although they are uncertain just how long the surge will last.

To complicate matters, an unexpected early rise in RSV and influenza cases has put a strain on health systems.

"Hospitalizations have doubled in the last month," said Dr. David Scrase, New Mexico's acting heath secretary. Three percent of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are now on ventilators, Scrase said; he noted the state has made progress compared with the 20 percent of patients on ventilators in 2020.

"Right now we're on an upward trend with COVID cases in New Mexico, but since many have switched over to home testing, we cannot collect the data we need," he added. "We know case counts are two to three times higher than what is being reported. Since mask wearing has dropped, we're really seeing an uptick."

Cases are now at the levels reported in March, with 45 percent of the state's population in areas with medium to high levels of infection rates. Eight counties in northwestern New Mexico have the highest vulnerability, according to Department of Health data.

The dominant omicron variants — with BQ.1 and BF.7 lineages emerging in October — appear to have a reduced effect on patients. But, Scrase said, "We still have people die every day from COVID, and that death count continues to climb."

State data shows 8,679 people have died from the illness since the coronavirus emerged in March 2020, including eight deaths in the last two weeks.

Treatments using the antiviral drug Paxlovid began in April and have since become the leading treatment of COVID-19 in New Mexico, although remdesivir remains a solid standby, Scrase said.

Five to 20 percent of COVID-positive patients exhibit long-term symptoms between three and six months after diagnosis, he said, adding, "Symptoms can resolve and then reemerge."

Medical experts agree the proven tools of masking, social distancing and vaccinations work.

"You're more than twice as likely to become infected if you're not vaccinated," Scrase said. "But the real reason to get vaccinated is the dramatic reduction in hospitalization and death."

New Mexico is one of the top states receiving the bivalent booster, he said, with 230,000 New Mexicans vaccinated against omicron.

Scrase recommends getting both the flu vaccination and the bivalent booster, which can be taken together. "I've already gotten my booster, and I encourage you to do that, especially if you have a significant risk factor, are older or if you live with someone who has a significant risk factor," he said.

"As we go into the holidays, the best gift you can give yourself is to get vaccinated," said Dr. Laura Parajon, deputy secretary of the Department of Health.

Parajon said she recently battled COVID-19, although she is immunized. "I think because of the booster, I got much less sick than I would have," she said, adding she didn't test positive until her third day of symptoms.

Holiday travelers should mask up in airports, on planes and in large gatherings, she said. She also recommends those who feel sick stay away from family members during the holidays, especially those who are elderly or at high risk of severe infection.

Because vaccinations come with possible side effects such as fever, chills, nausea and headache, people may shy away from them, but Scrase said facing 24 hours of side effects is far better than weeks of acute illness: "Having a night of chills, fever and difficulty sleeping is a [smaller] price to pay than ending up in the ICU on a vent."

Dr. Anna Duran, the University of New Mexico Children's Hospital associate medical officer, said the rise in RSV has filled children's beds at her hospital. "Historically, RSV starts mid-December, so we're about six weeks before that. It usually peaks at the end of January and reduces by end of March."

"We're making sure we have enough physicians to care for the larger influx of pediatric patients, and we continue to be impacted by staffing," she said. "We're working very hard to make sure our patient-nurse ratios are safe. The other impact we want to start making is community education — when to stay home, when to seek pediatric care, urgent care or emergency room care."

Health officials said monkeypox has remained relatively low in New Mexico, with a reported 52 cases. There have been just more than 29,000 cases of monkeypox reported nationwide.