Healthcare backlash hits Republicans hard on generic ballot, polls find
Young voters also swing heavily toward Democrats in six states as polls suggest GOP congressional candidates are taking brunt of Trump’s base’s dissatisfaction
Support for Republican candidates has significantly declined across much of the country, according to a new series of polls released by the nonpartisan polling firm RABA Research in conjunction with Brown University.
In surveys of five distinct demographic areas that give a cross-section of the American electorate, there has been a significant swing toward Democrats and away from Republicans on the 2018 generic ballot.
The research is an indicator of declining Republican enthusiasm and a potential bellwether for strong Democratic performance in the coming midterm elections.
Younger voters in particular were leaning toward the Democrats; healthcare was cited as one of the main reasons for the swing.
The five demographic areas, which were derived after work on the American Communities Project, consist of: Kent County, Rhode Island, a working-class suburb that shifted from Obama to Trump in 2016; a diverse swath of the rural south across the border between North Carolina and South Carolina; Arapahoe County, Colorado, a wealthy Denver suburb won by both Clinton and Obama; Chester County, Pennsylvania, a suburban Philadelphia county won by both Romney and Clinton; and a chunk of deep red rural northern Iowa.
Democrats improved their performance over the past two months in four of the five regions polled. The most dramatic shift was among voters in the Carolinas cluster, who have shifted from favoring Republicans 49%-37% to a statistical tie (43%-43%) on the generic ballot. The only exception was northern Iowa, in areas Trump won with 68% of the vote. There, in the district held by conservative firebrand Steve King, support for a generic Republican candidate crept up to 47% from 43%.
There were dramatic swings toward Democrats among younger voters aged 18-44. The most dramatic was in the Carolinas, where there was a net swing of 52%. But even in Iowa, where Republicans improved their performance on the generic ballot overall, there was a 29% swing in this age group for Democrats.
John DelCecato, a veteran Democratic operative who is one of the founders of RABA, told the Guardian that a lot of the shift toward Democrats on the generic ballot was because of healthcare. He noted that there was an overwhelming consensus among respondents across the political spectrum that the government has “a moral responsibility to provide healthcare to all Americans”. This held true even in regions where there was strong opposition to both Obamacare and the Affordable Care Act. (Although Obamacare is the popular name for the Affordable Care Act, polling numbers vary as respondents often react more negatively to the former than the latter.)
He also noted that support for Trump hadn’t eroded heavily among the president’s base. Instead, “congressional candidates were bearing the burden of Republican unhappiness with Trump” as they were transferring their frustration to the generic ballot.
These attitudes were combined with deep discontent toward Congress. Less than 20% of voters in all five areas had confidence in Congress to “act in the best interests of the country”.
Although the poll does not measure attitudes by congressional district, it includes two municipalities represented by vulnerable Republican incumbents: Mike Coffman represents much of Arapahoe County, Colorado; and Ryan Costello represents a significant portion of Chester County, Pennsylvania.
The poll comes just a day before a key special election in Georgia’s sixth congressional district, which has long been viewed as a key bellwether for Democratic efforts to take control of the House in 2018. Democrat Jon Ossoff is neck and neck in a traditionally Republican district that soured on Trump in 2016.
