Has Heat’s Big 3 run its course? What data shows when those three play together

As this Heat season spirals into a very dark place, one question hovers over everything:

Why hasn’t the trio that Erik Spoelstra has identified as the Heat’s Big 3 been more effective playing together since the start of the 2022-2023 season, when Tyler Herro became a starter?

Miami is 5-11 when Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Herro are all available this season after finishing 26-25 in those games last season, before playing without Herro for nearly all of a run to the NBA Finals. So that’s 31-36 with Butler, Adebayo and Herro playing together during the past 15 months, heading into Wednesday’s home game against Sacramento (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun), when Miami will try to snap a seven-game losing streak.

“That’s surprising,” an Eastern Conference scout said an hour before the Heat dropped its seventh consecutive game, 118-105, to Phoenix on Monday. “They’re obviously a level below the top three of several other teams, but they should be better than this. There’s clearly some chemistry issues. You see lack of intensity at times and they’re not consistently scoring. They shouldn’t be that bad” with those three starting.

Some suggest Herro’s move into the starting lineup has been a net negative, but when they’re on the floor together — which is necessary whether Herro starts or not — they’re still outscoring teams, just not nearly to the extent that they have at times in the past.

A study of data reveals several realities, and corrects some misconceptions, about lineups featuring Butler, Adebayo and Herro:

▪ The lineup featuring those three historically has been extremely good at times, including stretches last season when Miami outscored teams by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with that group on the court. That number was 12.2 per 100 possessions during Herro’s rookie season in 2019-2020, when Goran Dragic was playing point guard at a high level.

In fact, the Heat has never had a regular season or playoffs when those three have been outscored when they’re on the court together. In the two long playoff runs when Herro played the majority of games (the 2020 Finals run at the Disney complex and the 2021-22 run that ended with a Game 7 Eastern finals home loss to Boston), Miami outscored opponents by exactly 10.7 points per 100 possessions with a Butler/Herro/Adebayo lineup in both of those postseasons.

In the 2021-22 playoff run, the Heat scored an impressive 125.1 points per 100 possessions with those three on the floor together, by far the most that lineup has produced in their regular season or postseason time together. That was the season before Herro became a starter.

▪ But when compared this season to the top three scorers on other teams holding playoff seeds, the Butler/Adebayo/Herro lineups don’t measure up in two key areas: points per 100 possessions (which removes pace as a factor in analyzing offense) and plus-minus when they’re on the floor together.

Let’s take a look at scoring first.

Among the Heat’s Big 3 and the 15 other teams holding top eight seeds, Miami’s three top scorers (excluding newcomer Terry Rozier) compared to the top three scorers for other teams is third worst in points per 100 possessions. And Miami’s group is nowhere close to the top 12.

Lineups featuring Butler, Adebayo and Herro are averaging 113.3 points per 100 possessions in their 16 games together, which is only 33rd best among three-man Heat lineups that have played at least 15 games together.

Those lineups are outscoring teams by 3.4 points per 100 possessions, which is underwhelming for a pseudo Big 3.

“We need more out of everybody, including myself,” Herro said Monday night. “I feel like it starts with me Bam and Jimmy. It’s on us to bring more, and the rest of the guys will follow.”

When you can compare those offensive efficiency and plus-minus numbers to lineups featuring the top three scorers of other playoff teams, they pale in comparison to most.

When Boston plays top three scorers Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis together, they’re averaging 121.9 points per 100 possessions and outscore teams by 15.7 points per 100 possessions.

When Milwaukee’s top three scorers (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Kris Middleton) play together, the Bucks score 125.7 points per 100 possessions and are a plus-15.4.

The Knicks’ top three scorers (Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, OG Anunoby) are at 128.5 points per 100 and a plus 25.9 in their first 12 games together.

The 76ers’ top three scorers (Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris) are at 123.8 per 100 and plus-14.7.

Oklahoma City’s Shae-Gilgeous Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are at 120.7 and plus-13.1.

Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert are at 118.0 and plus-8.2.

The Clippers’ James Harden, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are at 123.2 and plus-13.6.

Denver’s Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are at 126.2 and plus-15.9.

Phoenix’s Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are at 125.4 and plus-13.9.

The Heat’s Big 3 lineups haven’t approached those.

Among teams holding playoff seeds, Miami’s top three scorers have better points per 100 possessions only than the top three scorers of Orlando (Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony) and lineups featuring New Orleans’ top three scorers (Zion Williamson, Brandon, Ingram and C.J. McCollum).

In plus-minus per 100 possessions, only the top three scorers of the Magic and Dallas and Indiana are worse than Butler/Herro/Adebayo.

It’s notable that the Heat went 8-3 in its 11 most recent games without Butler. But to suggest that Adebayo and Herro have been better without Butler would be incorrect. The Heat has averaged just 108.1 points per 100 possessions and has been outscored by 3.9 points per 100 when Adebayo and Herro play together — significantly worse than Miami’s numbers with Butler, Adebayo and Herro together.

CORRELATION OR CAUSATION

Less clear is whether the team’s struggles with its Big 3 healthy reasonably can, in some ways, be attributed to the fit of this trio.

In many ways, it should not be attributed to fit.

Here’s one example: Adebayo is shooting 7 for 42 on midrange jumpers in January. Herro and Butler cannot be blamed for that.

Butler is allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 50.3 percent this season, compared with 47.6 percent last season and 44.4 percent the previous season. Even though Butler might be leaving his man at times to help when other Heat wing players are victimized by penetrations, that alone wouldn’t account for that drop.

In some areas, it’s more nuanced. For example:

Butler is averaging 12.7 field-goal attempts and 19.3 points in 16 games when Herro also plays, and 14.3 shot attempts and 22.5 points when Herro doesn’t. So the more aggressive Butler is a bit more likely to surface without Herro, though Butler scored 31 against the Lakers and 27 against the Knicks with Herro in uniform.

At the request of Heat coaches, Herro says he’s shooting more catch-and-shoot jumpers (mostly threes) than midrange shots. The result has been five consecutive games below 20 points, after failing to reach 20 just five times in his first 23. That’s a byproduct of the fit with Adebayo and Butler, who both take a lot of midrange shots.

Bottom line: The Butler/Adebayo/Herro lineups aren’t nearly as good this season as they were during 2020 and 2022 playoff runs, or even last season.

Why those results haven’t been as successful this season could be attributed to appalling defensive breakdowns and general defensive regression across the roster, problems with the supporting cast (particularly Jaime Jaquez Jr. missing the first five games of the losing streak), shooting slumps by Adebayo and Herro, an overall decline in three-point shooting and a passive Butler at times. The larger question is whether this Big 3 has simply run its course as an effective lead group.