Heat is coming this week: Here's what to expect in Rochester from a fiery shift in temps
It looks like July is going to end in a sweaty heap, flopping over the finish line later this week both sun-roasted and muggy.
Forecasters are calling for a "real feel" maximum in the 90s on Wednesday and Thursday in Rochester. And Friday may hit the very upper 90s on the real-feel temperature, which takes the thermometer reading and humidity into account, said Alan Reppert, a senior meteorologist for Accuweather, on Sunday evening.
Like the heat index, the "real feel" number is a better way to measure how people will feel outside in the shade, according to experts. Being in the sun means you feel hotter than even that benchmark.
Reppert said last month was cooler than normal in the Finger Lakes region, but that doesn't mean it will stay mild all summer.
What is considered hot in Rochester?
"A heat wave consisting of 3 or more consecutive days where the 'feels like' temperature meets or exceeds the local definition of a 'hot day' is an increasing possibility as temperatures rise" in Rochester, according to First Street data foundation.
The “hot day” temperature for Rochester is 95ºF, First Street reports.
30 years ago, the likelihood of a 3 day or longer heat wave in Rochester in any one year was 17%.
This year it will be 51% likely to happen.
In 30 years, it will be 78% likely in Rochester in any given summer.
We're making it worse when we run our AC
When the heat index is high, it's important for short- and long-term health that we cool off. Air-conditioning in Upstate New York plays an important role, for those who have access to it.
Under a bright blue sky in downtown Rochester on Sunday, Evy Cruz was enjoying a July day near SPoT Coffee. Cruz recognizes that summers are getting slightly hotter year after year.
"Global warming is definitely a contributing factor, and it’s only going to get worse," she said. Cold drinks, the swimming pool and air-conditioning make it bearable.
But she reflected on the Catch-22 that our dependence on AC brings. "It's a vicious circle," she said, due to the carbon emissions from running the air-conditioning constantly.
Climate experts have their eye on this issue. The World Economic Forum estimates an out-sized impact globally by the end of this decade from AC use, especially less-efficient room or window units.
Role of humidity is pernicious
From Climate Central, an expert group made up of scientists and communicators tracking climate crisis:
The evaporation of sweat from skin cools our bodies. But as humidity rises, sweat evaporates more slowly and removes less heat from our bodies. As a result, our bodies “feel” hotter in humid heat.
Extreme levels of humid heat can overwhelm the body’s temperature control system and lead to serious and even fatal heat stress and illness.
Heat index values of 90°F and higher are increasingly dangerous. At these levels, sunstroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion become increasingly likely with prolonged exposure or physical activity.
The Democrat & Chronicle is investigating the effects of a rapidly heating planet on people who live in our city. Follow along with "City on Fire" as we report the struggle with summer temperatures caused by climate crisis. This is part of the USA TODAY project Perilous Course. Contact journalist William Ramsey at wramseyiii@gannett.com to be included in a story if you have been affected by heat: expense of air conditioning or lack of it, health risks, less access to green space, concern about pets and animals in the summer conditions, worry about an older loved one, etc.
Ramsey is a Northeast regional journalist who works with New York State reporters in Gannett, based out of Virginia — but also traveling to Rochester for reporting.
Here's a video about the "Rhapsody" mural pictured:
This article originally appeared on Staunton News Leader: Rochester summer weather to turn hotter. Climate crisis promises more.
