As Heat guard Herro emerges, here’s how high NBA scouts say he should have been drafted
A scout from a Western Conference team mentioned Thursday that he was recently having a discussion with colleagues about how the top of the 2019 NBA Draft would have gone if teams knew then what they know now.
Pelicans forward Zion Williamson and Grizzlies guard Ja Morant would still go 1-2, of course. But a couple of people mentioned Heat guard Tyler Herro as the best choice at No. 3; another mentioned Washington forward Rui Hachimura, the scout conveyed in a phone conversation with the Miami Herald.
A second scout from another team, also speaking by phone Thursday, said that in his opinion, Herro would go no lower than fifth in a hypothetical redraft, placing him behind Williamson, Morant, the Knicks’ R.J. Barrett and Hachimura — and ahead of seven others selected before Herro: De’Andre Hunter, Darius Garland, Jarrett Culver, Coby White, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish, Cam Johnson and P.J. Washington.
Whether Herro would go in the top three or four in an NBA redraft is subjective.
But what’s clear is this: He assuredly wouldn’t again slip to 13th, where Miami snagged him last June.
Herro, who has impressed throughout his rookie season, has been even better in seven games in the Disney bubble, averaging 17.4 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists while shooting 53 percent from the field and 37.8 percent on threes.
He comes off a career-high 30-point game Wednesday against Oklahoma City, four days after filling the boxscore with 25 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds against Phoenix.
“I love that kid to death,” Jimmy Butler said. “He’s growing every time he steps on the court. Obviously, he can score. He’s getting everyone involved. He’s listening and learning and being coached by everybody and just being a great teammate. It’s crazy how young he is [20]. He plays the game like he’s been in the league for a long time.”
Butler cites growth in Herro’s “finishing, knowing when to make late decisions, knowing you can pull up, his floater, knowing when to hit the baseline, the pocket pass. It’s not surprising to me because he’s always studying the film, always watching before and after the game. The kid just wants to be great. He wants to help bring a championship to Miami and I think we’re going to do that.”
Herro’s shooting from distance has been his best asset since arriving from Kentucky; his 39 percent three-point accuracy is tied for 41st in the league. But what we have seen in the Orlando bubble is a diversified game — an improved penetrator and a better ball distributor and creator.
What has helped Herro’s development, coach Erik Spoelstra said, has been assistant coach Chris Quinn “spending countless hours putting the ball on the floor, different finishes with both hands. What Tyler had already was a feel for getting the ball in the basket and a unique creativity when he has help defenders or bigger defenders at the rim.”
Herro said once players were allowed back at AmericanAirlines Arena in June, “I was really working on ball-handling and getting into the lane and finishing, different finishes. Being off for so long, I got to sit back and watch the game from a different perspective, learn as much as I can.”
Of the two veteran scouts contacted Thursday (both requested anonymity), one said he would select Herro either third or fourth in a redraft (he said it’s a toss-up with Hachimura), and the other said he would select him fifth, behind Williamson, Morant, Barrett and Hachimura.
The second evaluator, who has coached and been a part of the league for many years, explained putting Herro fifth this way: “Barrett can play both forward positions and two guard and you factor in rebounding [5.0 average to Herro’s 4.1] and he will be a better defender. But it’s very close in my view between Barrett and Herro. You like Barrett’s profile a little better. Rui is a unique package with his length and size, in the Brandon Ingram mold.”
What’s clear, that second evaluator said, is Herro will be a better pro than many expected.
“He’s had some incredible offensive runs where he just shoots lights out,” that scout said. “If anyone had known he was going to play with the confidence he has and be OK as a defensive player and shoot the ball like he has, he would have gone higher. Shooting is a skill everyone is looking for, but Herro is not just a shooter.”
Among the 10 rookie wing players selected in the 2019 lottery, Herro stands third in points per game (13.5), behind only Morant (17.9) and Barrett (14.3), tied for second in field-goal percentage at 42.9 (with Phoenix’s Cam Johnson, behind only Morant) and second in three-point shooting percentage at 39.0, barely behind Johnson.
“It has been a very long rookie season, almost a year,” Herro said Wednesday night after what he hopes will be the first of many 30-point games as a pro.
“My teammates and coaches continue to put more trust in me and continue to teach me. Every day, it’s a different vet. They’re helping me every single day. So I’m just grateful to have guys like Jimmy and Goran [Dragic], even the new guys who we traded for.”
Here’s my Thursday Heat piece with an update on Jae Crowder and the Heat’s draft standing and what Miami and Indiana players are saying about their looming playoff series.
