Heat’s Jimmy Butler ‘starting to get his groove’? What the stats say and what has changed

Miami Heat coaches and players spent much of the last two weeks discussing what needed to happen to get back on track. With the Heat losing seven straight for the first time since 2008, there was a lot that needed to change.

At the center of the Heat’s plan to save its season? Jimmy Butler.

“I just feel like we lost a couple games maybe because I haven’t been as aggressive as I’m supposed to be,” Butler said. “We talked about how that had to change.”

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Butler, 34, then put those words into action, turning up his aggressiveness over the last week to score 24 or more points in four straight games for the first time this season. It’s just the 10th time in his NBA career that Butler has done that in four or more consecutive games.

Butler’s latest performance included 24 efficient points on 7-of-10 shooting from the field, 1-of-1 shooting on threes and 9-of-13 shooting from the foul line, nine rebounds, three assists and one steal to lead the Heat to a 110-102 road win over the Washington Wizards on Friday night. It marked the Heat’s second straight win after snapping its seven-game losing streak.

“We were able to set our defense so many times from that and different guys were able to get to the free-throw line because we were in the bonus early pretty much in every quarter,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers (6 p.m., Bally Sports Sun and ESPN) to begin a four-game homestand at Kaseya Center. “That was the result of Jimmy’s aggressiveness.”

Most of that production came in the first half, when Butler totaled 19 points on 6-of-7 shooting from the field and 6-of-6 shooting from the free-throw line for his highest-scoring first half of the season.

“Come out and be aggressive, keep everybody on their heels,” Butler said of his mindset shift. “I think whenever I’m playing like that, it makes everybody else’s job easier.”

During this four-game stretch of assertive play, Butler has averaged 27.3 points, eight rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game while shooting an ultra efficient 62.5 percent from the field and 6 of 9 (66.7 percent) on threes. His aggressiveness has also generated 10.3 free-throw attempts per game during this stretch.

Those numbers don’t guarantee victories, as the Heat is 2-2 over the past four games.

But an offense run through Butler usually gives the Heat a better chance of coming away with the win. Miami is 9-3 this season when Butler’s usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court) is 25 percent or higher, and he’s crossed that threshold in two of the last four games after posting a usage rate of under 25 percent in seven of the eight games before this four-game span.

“It’s been huge,” Heat veteran Kevin Love said of Butler’s recent offensive uptick. “I think it’s been great for each and every one of us throughout the lineup. He’s the guy that when you establish him early, he’s always going to make the right play and he’s going to be incredibly efficient, and he’s done it his whole career.

“So when he does that, when he really gets himself going, gets in attack mode, whether he’s shooting the ball or getting to the free-throw line or setting up other players, that’s when we’re at our best.”

Attack mode for Butler has resulted in 41 of his 56 (72.3 percent) field-goal attempts coming from inside the paint in the last four games. He has shot 16 of 22 (72.7 percent) from within the restricted area during this stretch.

Before the last four games, 62.5 percent of Butler’s shots came from inside the paint and he shot 61.6 percent from within the restricted area this season.

“He’s been more aggressive than he was in the beginning of the season,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “We know what that man can do when he’s tapped in and is locked in. I feel like he’s starting to get his groove.”

Butler’s usage rate of 24 percent this season is still the lowest it has been in his five seasons with the Heat. The advanced metrics don’t love Butler’s play as much as they did last regular season, when he earned a spot on the All-NBA Second Team for the first time in his career and received MVP votes. Butler’s defense has also slipped this season, according to most of the catch-all advanced stats. And Butler wasn’t selected for the NBA All-Star Game this season.

But somehow, Butler is still on pace to turn in one of the most efficient shooting seasons of his NBA career.

Butler is shooting 50.2 percent from the field, 44.4 percent from three-point range and 87 percent from the foul line this season. It would be just the second time that Butler shoots 50 percent or better in a season during his NBA career and also establish a new career-best for three-point percentage in a season.

“I feel like I always play the same way,” Butler said. “But I will say, I do have to make my foul shots. I’ve been missing a lot of those lately. What’s even crazier is if I would have made them, I’d be 50-40-90. I’m just saying.”

The last player who appeared in 60 or more games while shooting 50 percent or better from the field, 40 percent or better on threes and 90 percent or better from the foul line is Malcolm Brogdon, who did it with the Milwaukee Bucks during the 2018-19 season.

“I’m not,” Butler said when asked if he’s actually tracking his pursuit of the 50-40-90 milestone. “I don’t pay attention to it. We sit here and we mess around and we joke about it. But I couldn’t care less.”

Butler, who missed 15 of the Heat’s first 39 games this season before playing in the last 10 games, just cares about helping the Heat win. He knows he puts the Heat in the best position to do that when he’s aggressive and assertive.

Butler has flipped that switch recently, with the Heat entering Saturday in seventh place in the Eastern Conference at 26-23 after representing the East in the NBA Finals last season.

“We straight,” Butler said. “We always was even whenever we were losing games. We just got to get back to playing the right way, which we have, believing in one another, smiling and enjoying the process. Because I feel like we’ve hit that adversity, we got through it and now it’s time to roll.”