Heat mailbag: Is it time to be concerned about Terry Rozier’s three-point shooting?

The Miami Herald’s Heat mailbag is here to answer your questions. If you weren’t able to ask this time, send your questions for future mailbags via X (@Anthony_Chiang). You can also email them in to achiang@miamiherald.com.

@Jthefox101YT: Thoughts on Terry Rozier’s air-ball threes? Should we monitor how Terry is shooting poorly from three, which is 25 percent?

Anthony Chiang: Yes, Terry Rozier has been a bad three-point shooter since joining the Heat. He’s shooting just 23.7 percent on 4.9 three-point attempts per game in his first 12 games with the Heat. He’s shooting 25 percent on catch-and-shoot threes and 22.2 percent on pull-up threes with the Heat. That’s really bad. There’s no sugarcoating it.

But ... do I think Rozier is going to shoot under 25 percent from three-point range for the rest of the season? No. It’s never as bad or as good as it seems. The law of averages suggests that Rozier will run into a hot streak soon to get his three-point shooting percentage back up to around where his career mark is, which is 36.4 percent. Shrink that window to the last three seasons and Rozier has shot 34.8 percent on 7.8 three-point attempts per game.

If you expect Rozier to come in and be a 40 percent three-point shooter with the Heat, that’s probably not going to happen. Rozier has been a respectable outside shooter during his NBA career, but he’s never been among the most efficient in the league. What Rozier does best is put pressure on the rim while also operating in those in-between spaces as an effective non-rim two-point scorer.

But there’s no doubt that Rozier needs to hit more threes than he has in his first month with the Heat. And based on his three-point numbers from past seasons in his career, that should happen in the coming days and weeks.

@joey_levfit: Why doesn’t Nikola Jovic get more minutes? He either starts or doesn’t see the court.

Anthony: Nikola Jovic’s situation is definitely unique. In his last 15 starts, he has logged double-digit minutes in each one. But the last time he played double-digit minutes in a non-start was all the way back in a Dec. 28 win over the Golden State Warriors. What’s the explanation for this? I’m not totally sure other than the fact that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra believes Jovic is best, at this early stage of his NBA career, when he’s playing alongside the Heat’s best players.

That’s why the Heat teammate Jovic has logged the most minutes with this season is All-Star center Bam Adebayo. The two have played 299 minutes together, with the Heat outscoring opponents by an impressive 10.9 points per 100 possessions during that time.

The question now becomes, will Spoelstra stick with a starting frontcourt of Adebayo and Jovic in the final weeks of the regular season and playoffs? The 20-year-old Jovic will need to continue to earn the trust of his coaches and teammates to remain in that role down the stretch of the schedule.

@CarlosLop32: In the event that the Heat have an early playoff exit, what changes would you expect to be made to the roster in the offseason?

Anthony: Let’s worry about that in a few months. There will be plenty of time to discuss that this offseason. I’ll say this, though, this is Year 5 of the Adebayo-Jimmy Butler-Tyler Herro build. It’s rare for an NBA build to last that long these days, especially when it hasn’t produced a championship. So the Heat will face with some big questions if it again misses out on a title.