How Heat must view all trades moving forward and the Lowry flip realities to consider

First in a series

Heat president Pat Riley can put away his harpoon. All of the circling whales have gone out to sea.

The window to snag an All-NBA player to supplement Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo seems partly, if not entirely, shut, at least for the immediate future.

That’s the reality as the Heat slogs through another injury-marred season while trying to defend its Eastern Conference title.

The glass-half-full view: This team, when healthy, seems deeper than last season’s Eastern Conference champions; rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been a revelation; and Kyle Lowry — while often a reluctant scorer — has been, at the very least, efficient. (Lowry is shooting 42.7 percent on threes and has 90 assists, compared with 30 turnovers.)

And there still could be opportunities to upgrade at the margins, or perhaps something more significant if Lowry and a draft pick can be parlayed into an above-average starter before the Feb. 8 trade deadline.

NBA trades become easier on Friday, when about 80 players signed during the summer become trade-eligible. For the Heat, that group includes Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant and Kevin Love.

With Butler’s contract running another two seasons after this one, all Heat transactions during the next two years likely will be viewed by the team through this prism:

1). Is the available player good enough to relinquish Tyler Herro? To this point, Herro only has been offered for Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard.

Herro said the Heat conveyed to his agent, Jeff Schwartz, during the summer that if he was going to be dealt, it would be for a top 75 (all time) player. So unless that changes, there aren’t many players that Herro would be dealt for.

2). Will any good — but not great — starters that shake free on the trade market be worth sacrificing any of Miami’s potentially three tradeable first-round picks, assets that would be very valuable if another All-Star asks for a trade?

3). If Lowry can be flipped at the trade deadline for a better player on a multiyear deal, is taking on that player worth it to Miami, considering the cap/tax consequences and how it might limit the Heat’s ability to re-sign Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith?

It all depends on the player received, but here’s what’s important to know:

Miami is a tax team this year but generally doesn’t like being an every-year tax team, which makes the tax far more onerous.

Also, the Heat seems determined to avoid the second apron, an addition to the new labor agreement that - beginning next season - will trigger draconian penalties, competitively, on teams $18 million above the tax line.

The Heat is barely below the second apron this season, but surpassing it in the months ahead won’t trigger any onerous consequences for teams this season.

Presuming Martin opts out of $7.1 million for 2024-25 and Love opts into $4 million for 2024-25, the Heat would have $142 million on the books next season, with Butler ($48.7 million), Adebayo ($34.8 million), Herro ($29 million), Duncan Robinson ($19.4 million), Jaquez Jr. ($3.7 million), Love and Nikola Jovic ($2.4 million).

That jumps to $148 million if Richardson and Bryant exercise their $3.1 million and $2.8 million player options. And Miami assuredly will exercise the $2.1 million team option on Orlando Robinson. So the Heat essentially would have $150 million on its books in this scenario, about $6 million less if Richardson and Bryant opt out.

The projected salary cap for 2024-25 is $142 million but could be higher. The early projected luxury tax line for 2024-25 is $172.5 million, and that’s the key number to remember.

Also keep in mind that the $172.5 projected tax line is conservative; it could end up several million dollars higher than that, which could give Miami closer to $30 million to spend and avoid being a tax team. (But Miami can sign free agents using only exception money or minimum contracts.)

If the Heat wants to avoid a tax in 2024-25 in that scenario, Miami would have six roster spots to fill and about $22 million to $30 million of room under the tax line (depending on opt-out decisions by Richardson and Bryant), or $40 to $48 million million under the second apron.

So in assessing any potential Lowry trade opportunities that come up, Miami must decide how to spend that $22 million to $30 million (if it doesn’t want to be a tax team again).

Here are the most realistic ways to spend it:

1). Using part of it to re-sign Martin and Highsmith.

2). Using the nontaxpayer midlevel exception of $13 million, or much of it, on an outside free agent and keeping Highsmith or possibly Martin.

3). Using Lowry’s contract, before Feb. 9, to trade for a player with money left on his contract beyond this season.

There are other options, too, if Miami wants to trade any player under contract next season for someone earning a bit more.

So while the idea of flipping Lowry’s expiring contract for something better is appealing in theory, also keep these three things in mind:

1). If Lowry’s $29.6 million expiring contract is traded, hypothetically, for an $8 million player with an expiring contract and one due $22 million next season, that would make re-signing Martin (and possibly Highsmith) unrealistic this summer if Miami wants to avoid being a tax team again.

2). The Heat almost assuredly would need a point guard back in any trade involving Lowry, thus limiting potential targets.

3). If any team asks for a first-rounder (and Lowry) in exchange for a somewhat better, younger point guard (but one who isn’t an All-Star), that might be short-sighted to do, because it would leave Miami with one less valuable asset if an All-Star player such as Donovan Mitchell asks out.

In explaining why the Heat might simply allow Lowry’s contract to expire without flipping him for a player with multiple years left on a contract, one NBA agent described it as a “Get Out of Jail” card.

By simply allowing Lowry’s contract to expire, Miami would then be $22 million to $30 million under the tax line and potentially could try to find a decent point guard willing to take the midlevel exception and have enough to re-sign Martin.

So all of this must be taken into account when considering any Lowry trade scenarios that emerge before Feb. 8.

Next up: Potential trade partners