Heat now in play-in territory with one month to go. Where Heat stands with its competition

Just a week ago, the Heat appeared poised to make a move with its revamped roster and potentially seize the fourth or fifth spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Then Victor Oladipo injured his right knee, blunting momentum and leaving Miami’s roster somewhat different (Trevor Ariza replaced Kelly Olynyk) but nevertheless largely comparable in quality to the group that has hovered around or below .500 for much of the season.

And with Oladipo out indefinitely and the Heat’s offense sputtering (Miami scores the sixth-fewest points per 100 possessions), the Heat now finds itself immersed in a difficult battle merely to avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament.

The Heat (28-27) awoke Thursday standing seventh in the East, one half game behind No. 6 New York and one half game ahead of No. 8 Charlotte.

So if the season ended now — it actually ends exactly one month from Friday — the Heat would play host to the Hornets in a one-game play-in. If the Heat won that game, it would enter the playoffs as the seventh seed. If it lost that game, it would play host to the winner of the 9/10 play-in game (currently Indiana-Chicago) for the eighth playoff seed.

Those play-in games would be Tuesday, May 18 through Friday, May 21, a short turnaround from the Heat’s regular-season finale May 16 at Detroit. The playoffs begin May 22.

Any team slotted seventh or eighth would enter the playoffs as heavy underdogs in a first-round series against No. 1 seed Philadelphia or No. 2 Brooklyn, which is one game back of the 76ers.

Where the Heat stands compared with the five other teams realistically competing for the fourth through ninth spots, with records and seedings reflecting the position of each team entering Thursday night’s games.

No. 4 Atlanta (30-25): There’s potentially no more important remaining date on the Heat’s schedule than the April 23 game at Atlanta, which will determine the tiebreaker if the teams finish with the same record. The teams split two earlier games in Miami.

The Hawks and Heat have schedules similar in quality; both teams have nine games against teams below .500, including seven apiece against teams well below .500.

But Atlanta’s eight-game slate against good teams is probably more difficult than Miami’s eight-game slate against good teams. The Hawks have two games remaining against both Milwaukee (both at home) and Philadelphia (both in Pennsylvania); Miami has one game at home against both Brooklyn and Philadelphia and one at Milwaukee.

The Hawks, incidentally, stand 4.5 games behind No. 3 Milwaukee.

No. 5 Boston (29-26): If the April 23 game at Atlanta might be the most important game on Miami’s schedule, the two against Boston are assuredly on par. The Celtics lead the season series 1-0 and Miami must win both games in Boston — May 9 and May 11 — to win a tiebreaker if the teams finish tied.

The Celtics’ schedule is perhaps slightly more difficult than Miami’s. Boston plays eight games against teams below .500, including six against teams well below.

No. 6 New York (29-27): The Heat won the season series 3-0 and finishing behind the Knicks would be humbling, because Miami has the superior roster on paper.

The Knicks have by far the most difficult remaining schedule of these six teams, with only five games against teams below .500 (New Orleans, Toronto, Chicago, Houston and San Antonio), and the Rockets the only dismal team in that group.

The Knicks still must play at the Lakers and at the Clippers, plus road games in Dallas, Phoenix, Memphis and Denver.

So if the Heat doesn’t jump New York for a top-six seed, it would be a major disappointment for Miami.

No. 7 Heat (28-27): The schedule is fairly favorable, but not significantly easier than Atlanta’s or Boston’s.

The Heat has seven games against teams at least 10 games below .500: two against Minnesota (including in Minneapolis on Friday), home to Houston, two against Chicago (both in Miami), at Cleveland and at Detroit in the Sunday, May 16 regular-season finale. Miami also plays two games against the mediocre Spurs.

All of Miami’s seven remaining games against teams with winning records are formidable: home to Brooklyn, Dallas and Philadelphia and on the road against Atlanta, Milwaukee and Boston twice. There’s also a key May 2 game at Charlotte, on a Sunday night.

Keep in mind that Miami is just 11-21 against teams with .500 or winning records.

No. 8 Charlotte (27-27): The Hornets have clinched the season series with Miami with virtue of a 2-0 series lead and only one matchup left. The Hornets have nine games remaining against teams with winning records (more than anyone in this group except the Knicks) and nine against teams with losing records.

Miami, on paper, seemingly has more talent and perhaps a slightly easier schedule, but the Hornets owning the tiebreaker is potentially problematic.

No. 9 Indiana (26-28): The Pacers won the season series against Miami, 2-1, but play 10 of their remaining 18 games against teams below .500, including two apiece against OKC and Washington.

Chicago (22-32) narrowly leads Toronto (22-34) and Washington (21-33) for the 10th seed and an invitation to the 9-10 play-in game.

With the Heat 6.5 games ahead of the 11th seed, it would take a monumental collapse for Miami not to play beyond the May 16 regular-season finale.

But avoiding the play-in round? That’s now very much in question. Whether it misses the playoffs or not, the Heat doesn’t own a first-round pick in June’s draft; OKC controls that pick but Houston possibly could get it as part of a complicated transaction.

THIS AND THAT

So is the 28-27 record reflective of the Heat’s ability?

“You ultimately are what your record says you are,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We think we’re better than this. We think we’ve been making some progress. But ultimately we are that.”

The Heat is 3-7 when it plays teams missing an injured recent All-Star, with Jimmy Butler also missing two of those 10 games and Bam Adebayo sitting out one (a win against New Orleans).

Though Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (averaging 21 points per game before sustaining a torn ACL) has never been an All-Star, Miami’s 123-106 loss on Wednesday in Denver qualifies as another disappointing example of the Heat failing to capitalize on the absence of a high-level player.

The only teams that are scoring fewer points per 100 possessions than Miami have a combined record of 86-189: Minnesota, Houston, Orlando, Cleveland and OKC.

The Heat averages 108.2 points per 100 possessions; among the teams the Heat is now chasing in the East are Atlanta (114.0) and Boston (113.4). But Miami is seventh in defensive rating (109.7 points permitted per 100 possessions).

INJURY UPDATE

Andre Iguodala is questionable for Friday with left hip soreness.