What a Heat pursuit of Lillard would look like, as Blazers try to appease him

The Heat bypassed improving its offer to Washington for Bradley Beal, backing away at the end, partly because of his onerous contract but also because the organization believes it has a real chance to acquire Portland All Star guard Damian Lillard, according to sources.

First, though, Lillard must ask for a trade, and there’s no guarantee that he will.

In an effort to appease Lillard and convince him to stay, the Blazers are looking for trades for veterans with the third and 23rd picks in Thursday’s NBA Draft, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported Monday.

Lillard has said he prefers to stay in Portland if the Blazers can build a legitimate contender around him.

If the Blazers are unsuccessful in that pursuit, then Lillard might ask for a trade - and the Heat would try to pounce.

Lillard, a seven-time All Star, told reporters on April 9 he’s “not interested” in having the Blazers draft another young player who will likely take multiple years to develop into a serious contributor on a winning team.

“I want a chance to go for it,” Lillard said. “And if the route is to (draft youth), then that’s not my route.”

He has reiterated similar sentiment since then, while also telling Showtime and ESPN host Brian Custer that Miami and the Nets would appeal to him if he asks for a trade.

But Pelicans guard CJ McCollom, Lillard’s close friend and former teammate, told Stephen A. Smith that the likelihood is that Lillard, 32, has played his last game for Portland.

And Yahoo/Turner reporter Chris Haynes, the national reporter with whom Lillard has the closest relationship, has said that he would limit potential Lillard destinations to the Heat and Nets, if he asks to be traded.

Haynes reported Sunday that the Heat has “genuine belief” that this could be the offseason that Lillard asks for a trade.

Whether the Heat is operating on hope - or whether Miami has inside information that Lillard will ask out - remains a mystery, one closely guarded because the Heat will not do anything to risk a tampering charge.

NBA rules say nobody from an organization - including players - can actively recruit players under contract to other teams.

So how could a Heat trade look for Lillard, who’s owed $216 million over the next four seasons? Here are three hypothetical packages, with the first of the three requiring additional pieces to accommodate NBA salary cap rules:

▪ A package built around Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry (whose contract could help facilitate a trade), and three first-round picks, with the Heat able to free up as many as four to trade if it makes its June 22 selection (No. 18 overall) on behalf of another team.

Unless Portland renounces Jerami Grant (who they’re trying to re-sign), another small piece or two from Portland likely would be needed for salary cap purposes in this trade scenario, possibly including Blazers guard Nassir Little (due $6.2 million).

Lowry’s $29.5 million expiring deal could be more appealing to some teams than Duncan Robinson’s deal, which has three years remaining at $57.3 million, with $47.3 million guaranteed.

Keep in mind that Oklahoma City must agree to convert Miami’s conditional 2025 first-round pick to an unconditional 2026 first-round pick in order for the Heat to be able to trade three first-rounders (2024, 2028, 2030).

▪ A tidier hypothetical trade - and one better for the Heat from a future flexibility standpoint - would be Herro, Robinson and three first-round picks for Lillard. That’s simpler because the combined 2023-24 salaries of Herro and Robinson - and Lillard’s salary - are essentially equal.

▪ A package of Herro, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic and Victor Oladipo’s expiring contract (once he opts in or $9.5 million, as expensive), plus two or three first-round picks.

That could appeal to Portland because the Blazers would not be on the hook for the money due Lowry or Robinson and would get two potential rotation pieces in Jovic and Martin, with the Heat likely reluctant to deal Martin.

There are other potential permutations - including replacing a first-round pick with Jovic in either of the first two scenarios. But these three seem the most realistic.

After July 1, teams with a salary of $169 million or more cannot accept more than 110 percent of the salaries they’re trading out.

The Nets, if interested in Lillard, would be formidable competition, because Brooklyn could offer as many as 11 first-round picks, including nine unprotected.

So a hypothetical Nets offer of say, five or six first-rounders -- combined with Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie and perhaps Nic Claxton or Royce O’Neale -- could be more appealing to Portland if the Blazers undertake a rebuild.

The Nets’ Mikal Bridges would very likely be off limits to Portland in trade talks, just as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo likely would be from the Heat’s perspective. Brooklyn’s Cam Johnson is a restricted free agent, complicating his potential inclusion in a trade.

If Lillard requests a trade, there’s a good chance that the Blazers would try to send him to one of the teams of his choice. But if the Nets offer five or more first-round picks, the Heat’s chances could hinge on Lillard specifically asking the Blazers to send him only to Miami. And it’s unclear if Lillard would do that.

The Nets made that accommodation in sending Kevin Durant to Phoenix, the team of his choice. Whether the Blazers would be willing to negotiate with only Miami, as a show of goodwill to Lillard, must still play out.

As for other less likely potential Lillard suitors, a few things to keep in mind:

▪ Most of the the teams with the most first-round picks this decade – Oklahoma City (14), Utah (14), San Antonio (11), Orlando (9), Houston (8) - either are rebuilding and wouldn’t be in the market for a old point guard, or in OKC’s case, don’t need one.

▪ The Memphis Grizzlies have nine first round picks over the next seven years but already have an All Star point guard in Ja Morant, who faces a 25-game suspension after being filmed (again) holding a gun on social media.

▪ The Knicks have nine first round picks over the next seven years, but Jalen Brunson has been perhaps the NBA’s best 2022 free agent pickup, and pairing two 6-2 point guards (Brunson and Lillard) would leave New York at a size deficit defensively.

▪ So what teams with a lot of available future first-round inventory could be potential suitors for Lillard?

Perhaps New Orleans and Toronto. The Pelicans have 9 or 10 first-round picks over the next seven years, and the Raptors have control of all their future first-round picks.

New Orleans hypothetically could offer a package of young players, salary cap ballast and as many as five future first-round picks.

Toronto, hypothetically, could offer four picks and a potential 2024 free agent such as OG Anonoby, but I’m not sure the Raptors would do that.

Haynes has reported that Lillard has no interest in Boston, which can trade unprotected picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029, along with pick swaps in 2024, 2026 and 2028.

If the Heat can acquire Lillard, he would give an immediate boost to the league’s lowest-scoring offense during the regular season, even at the cost of Herro.

Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game this past season, shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 37.1 percent on threes. He was third in the league in scoring and 13th in assists at 7.3 per game.

A core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Lillard could be viewed as a co-favorite in the East, with Boston and Milwaukee.

Any bid for Lillard likely would come at the cost of losing Herro, who is 9 ½ years younger and averaged 20.1 points this season, while shooting 43.9 percent from the field and slightly better than Lillard on threes (37.8 percent on threes).

Though acquiring Lillard likely would be viewed - and should be viewed - as a no-brainer, here are some cautionary factors to keep in mind:

▪ His age.

He will turn 33 on July 15, and many point guards begin to decline in their mid 30s, including Kyle Lowry, 37; Russell Westbrook, 34; and Chris Paul, 38.

But Steve Nash was still playing at an All Star level at age 37, so perhaps there would not be a steep decline in Lillard by the time he’s 36.

▪ Availability concerns. Lillard played at least 73 games in his first seven seasons and has never been injury-prone.

But he missed 15 games in 2020-21 and 53 games in 2021-22 (due to abdominal surgery, followed by the Blazers deciding to sit him the final month).

He missed 24 games this past season, 10 because of a calf injury early in the season and the final 10 because of a calf injury and the Blazers’ decision to shut him down, with Portland on the fringes of play-in contention.

▪ The contract. He’s due $45.6 million next season, followed by $48.8 million and $58.5 million the next two seasons, with a $63.2 million player option in 2026-27. But that’s the going rate for an elite player.

▪ The limitations in the Heat being able to surround Butler, Adebayo and Lillard with enough complementary talent under the new collective bargaining agreement:

Beginning next season, teams that are $17.5 million above the luxury tax threshold (known as the second apron) will be subjected to new and somewhat crippling restraints; teams that surpass that threshold won’t be able to use a taxpayer midlevel exception or sign players in the buyout market or take in more money in a trade than they send out.

There are also punitive financial consequences to being that much above the luxury tax threshold.

The luxury tax for next season is expected to be around $161 million, meaning teams with a payroll of around $178 million will face the onerous “second apron” restrictions.

The luxury tax line for 2024-25 hasn’t been determined. But if the Heat acquired Lillard, Little and two expiring minimum contracts for Lowry, Herro and first-round picks, then Miami -- for the 2024-25 season -- would have Lillard and Butler both at $48.8 million, Adebayo at $34.8 million, Robinson at $19.4 million, Martin at $7.1 million if accepts a player option (seems doubtful), Jovic at $2.4 million and hypothetically, Little at $6.7 million.

That adds up to $168 million, and that doesn’t even include possible multiyear deals this offseason for Max Strus or Gabe Vincent or cap holds or the No. 18 pick in the June 22 draft, if Miami keeps the selection.

But if the Blazers accepted Herro and Robinson instead of the package built around Herro and Lowry, then Miami’s cap commitments for 2024-25 would be only $142 million, before factoring in new deals for Vincent and/or Strus this summer and the 18th pick in this year’s draft and minimum-salary cap holds. That would give the Heat the ability to use a midlevel exception and far more flexibility under the tax line.

So dealing Herro and Robinson would be far better for the Heat’s longterm flexibility and finances than Herro and Lowry, because Lowry’s contract expires after next season while Robinson’s runs for three more years.

On the flip side, dealing both Herro and Robinson - and not re-signing Strus - would leave the Heat scrambling to find three-point shooters willing to sign for the minimum (or in a trade with Miami’s limited remaining available assets, such as Jovic).

The question -- in that Herro/Robinson trade hypothetical -- then becomes whether the Heat can find enough quality rotation pieces to supplement Butler, Adebayo, Lillard and Caleb Martin. That would be a challenge, but it’s something that the Heat navigated successfully during the Big Three era.

And if the Lillard opportunity arises, you make the trade because he’s an elite player and would be the perfect complement to Butler and Adebayo.

So the Heat waits, just as it did for Kevin Durant last summer, an effort that ultimately proved fruitless.

But at this point, with the Beal ship having sailed, there’s no harm in waiting for Lillard.