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Heat without pick tonight but still with paths to prospects in NBA draft

ira winderman, south florida sun-sentinel
·5 min read

The lesson with the Miami Heat is you do not make assumptions.

So even without a pick going into Thursday’s NBA draft there are no givens.

Because there are paths to picks.

And there are paths to prospects.

With so many teams having sold their future drafts in recent years as part of package deals for elite talent, there potentially will be more picks available for trades or sale during Thursday’s proceedings at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center than in recent memory.

In addition, the depth of talent figures to exceed to the 60 selections over the two rounds, creating the possibility of the Heat sitting back and then pouncing after Commissioner Adam Silver and Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum announce the selections.

Then there is the matter of what could have been for the Heat had they retained their first-round pick, as well as how they previously dealt their 2021 selections.

With that, a primer on what was, is, could have been and still might be for Pat Riley, Andy Elisburg and the Heat front office.

Dealt picks

The Heat’s first-round pick, which landed at No. 18 by virtue of their 40-32 finish in 2020-21 and No. 6 Eastern Conference finish, initially was dealt at the 2015 NBA trading deadline to the Phoenix Suns in the deal that landed guard Goran Dragic.

The pick since has been forwarded to the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers and, ultimately, the Oklahoma City Thunder, who hold that Thursday No. 18 slot.

The Heat’s second-round pick, which wound up at No. 48, was dealt to the Portland Trail Blazers at the 2016 NBA trading deadline as part of the salary dump of guard Brian Roberts, with the pick then moving on to the Sacramento Kings and then the Atlanta Hawks, who hold that No. 48 Thursday slot.

Opportunities lost

Among players listed in various mock drafts at No. 18 (while appreciating different needs for the Thunder than the Heat) are: Duke forward Jalen Johnson (ESPN), Stanford forward Ziaire Williams (The Athletic), Johnson (The Ringer), Williams (CBS Sports), Williams (NBC Sports), Williams (NBADraft.net), Baylor guard Jared Butler (Sports Illustrated), Arkansas guard Moses Moody (Yahoo), Johnson (Bleacher Report), Spanish forward Usman Garuba (SB Nation), Garuba (Rookie Wire) and Butler (Basketball News).

Among players listed in various mock drafts at No. 48 (while appreciating different needs for the Hawks than the Heat) are: Texas forward Jericho Sims (ESPN), Texas forward Greg Brown (The Athletic), Villanova forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (The Ringer), French guard Juhann Begarin (NBADraft.net), South Carolina guard AJ Lawson (Sports Illustrated), Florida State forward RaiQuan Gray (Yahoo), Belgian forward Vrenz Bleijenbergh (Bleacher Report) and Louisville guard David Johnson (Rookie Wire).

Opportunities available

While the Heat rarely have traded into the first round (with the painful notable exception of Martin Muursepp in 1996), that remains a possibility, albeit an unlikely one, with the team having limited currency to offer.

Easier to facilitate would be the purchase of a second-round pick, with teams allowed to spend up to $5.6 million for such transactions, leaving open the possibility of the purchase of multiple second-round picks.

As a matter of perspective, the New Orleans Pelicans hold picks Nos. 35, 43, 51 and 53 in Thursday’s second round. Other teams with multiple second-round picks include the Thunder (Nos. 34, 36 and 55), Brooklyn Nets (Nos. 44, 49, 59), Charlotte Hornets (Nos. 56, 57), Detroit Pistons (Nos. 37, 42, 51), Indiana Pacers (Nos. 54, 60), New York Knicks (Nos. 32, 58) and Toronto Raptors (Nos. 46, 47).

Options beyond No. 60

Should the Heat sit out the draft, among intriguing options who could emerge as potential undrafted free agents could include:

Jaquori McLaughlin (UCSB): A 6-4 point guard who shoots better than 40 percent on 3-pointers, can score off the dribble, and is an adept playmaker.

Trendon Watford (LSU): A physical 6-8 scorer with a 7-2 wingspan and defensive upside who can guard bigger players, with an improving 3-point shot.

Justin Champagnie (Pittsburgh): A 6-6 wing with a near 6-10 wingspan who goes hard and is a solid scorer off the ball.

John Petty (Alabama): A 6-6 wing with a near 6-10 wingspan who can score from anywhere on the floor and is an above-average defender on and off the ball.

Marcus Garrett (Kansas): Elite defender and strong 3&D prospect with a long wingspan who can guard a variety of positions, improved his 3-point percentage every year.

Matt Mitchell (San Diego State): Always seems to be around the ball on defense, uses his strength to get buckets, and can knock down 3-pointers. First-step isn’t great but he compensates with effort and solid frame.

Mitch Ballock (Creighton): Undersized, but an elite knockdown shooter from deep with range. Solid off the catch, but his athleticism and scoring off the dribble create question.

Derrick Alston Jr. (Boise State): A 6-8 forward with a 7-foot-plus wingspan. An older player who can step in and contribute right away, shoot in the high 30s on 3-points and handle/score well off the dribble.

Moses Wright (Georgia Tech): A small-ball four who is an above-average athlete who shot over 40 percent from 3 last season. Good defender who forces steals with rangy wingspan.

Chris Smith (UCLA): A 6-9 forward with a 7-foot-plus wingspan who was shooting 50 percent from 3 before tearing his ACL last season. Can slash and score off the dribble, with potential for lengthy NBA career.