'Hell is Real' is a must-win game for FC Cincinnati
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After FC Cincinnati's 1-1 draw at New York Red Bulls on Saturday, Pat Noonan tipped his hand regarding his view of the math FCC is up against in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Recent Major League Soccer history indicates attaining the seventh and final playoff seed in the east requires about 45 points by the end of the regular season, meaning Cincinnati (8-8-10, 34 points) would need 11 of the remaining 24 points available to reach that threshold.
But Noonan clearly had a higher number than 45 in mind, saying, "If we take care of our results at home and can sneak a result on the road, I think it positions us well."
His comment could very easily be construed to mean 13 points or more over the next eight matches, which would equate to quite a finish for an FC Cincinnati team that's drawn nine of its last 12 outings ahead of Saturday's visit from arch-rival Columbus Crew (7:30 p.m.).
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One thing that's consistent in FCC's public comments about the playoff race is that the four remaining home matches need to be wins, and the most challenging, high-pressure and high-stakes home game left on the schedule is against the Crew.
Saturday's match represents what can easily be argued as the most important game in the short but growing history of the "Hell is Real" rivalry, which is named for the infamous billboard facing Interstate 71 southbound in Mt. Sterling, Ohio.
The rivalry has never lacked for intrigue, drama and passionate fan engagement, but the next chapter marks the first-ever late-season game between the sides that holds playoff implications for both.
Columbus (8-6-11, 35 points) holds a slim one-point lead in the standings over the joint-eighth place clubs, Cincinnati and New England Revolution. A victory for either FCC or the Crew would significantly bolster their playoff hopes as the season enters in waning weeks.
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"This week has felt a little different. There's no two ways about it," Noonan said during a Thursday news conference. "And I think the group understands certainly the importance of a strong performance and the quest for three points, but also where we're at in the table, that's going to be a recurring theme in conversation. Because we're very tight in these spots in the table, and we're trying to jump."
The clubs met July 17 on a rainy night at Lower.com Field. Columbus received goals from Cucho Hernandez and Lucas Zelarayan, two of its big-money stars, in the 2-0 victory that night. MLS All-Star Luciano Acosta was absent from the match due to suspension for FC Cincinnati.
The goal for Hernandez was one of the eight he's scored in just nine appearances for Columbus since joining midseason from relegated English Premier League side, Watford FC.
Zelarayan also has eight goals this season while one-time FC Cincinnati player Derrick Etienne Jr. has five goals and five assists for the Crew.
In their last meeting, Cincinnati's attack was significantly hampered in the absence of Acosta (six goals, 14 assists in 2022) and he'll be available on Saturday, although FCC will be absent defensive midfielder and designated player Obinna Nwobodo due to suspension for yellow card accumulation.
After Cincinnati's stars were largely ineffective against the Red Bulls, Noonan on Thursday emphasized the importance of his club's star players −Acosta, fellow MLS All-Star Brandon Vazquez, and Brenner Souza da Silva among them −rising to the occasion of the Crew game.
"You need your biggest players to have their biggest performances in games like this. That's what separates them," Noonan said. So, certainly we have confidence that our group and players that have stepped up time and again will provide much of the same on Saturday. But like you said, it's going to take every player on the field, every reserve, and sometimes it's not about the tactics, it's just about the energy you bring, your willingness to fight and sacrifice and do a lot of things that benefit the team in getting a result we're looking for."
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The Cincinnati-Columbus match has all the ingredients necessary to make it a memorable night in the history of the rivalry. The game will feature star power, playoff implications and intensity from the fans.
FC Cincinnati is hoping hosting the match could help the math Noonan projects could see the club to a playoff spot.
"I mean, every three points is important, especially down at the end of the year," FCC defender Nick Hagglund said. "I would say, if we were to lose this game, and then win the next seven, do we make playoffs? I don't know. But you got to put the points on the board as soon as possible. So I'd say every game right now, it's so tight that three points -− it's a must-win. We're at home, we're against Columbus. This is a game that you don't want to lose. And so for me, and for the team, I think we're gonna feel like it's a must-win."
The game
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday | TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
TV/Radio/Stream: WSTR Star 64 / Fox Sport 1360 / FCCincinnati.com (in-region); ESPN+ (out of region)
Series info: Columbus leads the all-time series against FC Cincinnati with five wins, two losses and three draws (5-2-3).
Cincinnati.com prediction: FC Cincinnati 3, Columbus Crew 2.
FC Cincinnati
2022 record: 8-8-10, 34 points; tie-eighth place in MLS Eastern Conference
Goals for: 43
Goals against: 46
Coach: Pat Noonan –- first season at FC Cincinnati
Projected starting lineup:
Roman Celentano, goalkeeper
Alvas Powell, right back
Geoff Cameron, center back
Matt Miazga, center back
Nick Hagglund, center back
Alvaro Barreal, left back
Yuya Kubo, midfielder
Junior Moreno, midfielder
Luciano Acosta, midfielder
Brandon Vazquez, forward
Brenner Souza da Silva, forward
Columbus Crew
2022 record: 8-6-11, 35 points, seventh in Eastern Conference
Goals for: 34
Goals against: 29
Head coach: Caleb Porter - fourth season as Columbus head coach
Projected starting lineup:
Eloy Room, goalkeeper
Steven Moreira, right back
Jonathan Mensah, center back
Miloš Degenek, center back
Pedro Santos, left back
Artur, midfielder
Darlington Nagbe, midfielder
Luis Diaz, midfielder/winger
Lucas Zelarayan, midfielder
Derrick Etienne Jr., winger
Cucho Hernandex, forward
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Preview, prediction for the most important 'Hell is Real' match ever
