Hensley: Will this be the summer the lights go out across the country?

(Admitting up front a bit of recency bias, it seems like this May has been hotter than most I can remember. The stretch of days between the upper 90s into the low 100s, coupled with relentless winds, has me worried about what’s going to happen when summer arrives and it gets really hot.

Is it just me or does this unseasonable heat erode our cheerful nature? It is downright depressing to look at the long-range forecast and see scorching temperatures and zero chance of precipitation (despite the current respite). Summer isn’t here, and I’m already looking forward to the fall, my favorite West Texas season.

It will be difficult, though, to get from here to there, and these days, what some of us remember as fall sometimes doesn’t start until just before Thanksgiving. What’s the old saying? If you don’t like the weather around here, wait 10 minutes or so and it will change.

Put me down as not a fan of heatwaves. They upend my sunny disposition, so to speak. That’s before the monthly bill arrives letting me know how much it cost to keep the house reasonably cool.

Then my temperature goes up, but that’s another story. I’m wondering this year, with the soaring costs of everything, if families might look at curtailing summer vacations from exciting cross-country excursions to several simple trips to nearby service stations where the kids can watch the numbers spin like never before for a fill-up of the gas tank. Then back home. Well, adventure is often in the eye of the beholder.

Anyway, retreating from the heat earlier and more often than usual these days has me thinking about the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the organization responsible for the state’s power grid, and its recent plea to citizens to push thermostats to 78 degrees and avoid using large appliances during peak hours.

This communication, described as a proactive effort by those issuing it, sparked a wide range of emotions across the state with the most prevalent possibly being worry. The sentiment went something like this: If this is where we are now, what’s going to happen later this summer?

It’s a good question, but it’s not only Texas having to wrestle with it. According to a recent story from Bloomberg, a large chunk of the country is at risk of summer blackouts this year because of the confluence of several factors that could strain grids like never before.

First, demand across the country is up as the U.S. continues to emerge from the shackles of the COVID-19 pandemic. Just as important, much of the western half of the country is dealing with drought conditions approaching biblical proportions. Mix in a forecast calling for a hotter-than-normal summer, whatever that might mean in this part of the country, and you’ve got a recipe for trouble, says the North American Reliability Corporation.

“It’s a pretty sobering report, and it’s clear the risks are spreading,” John Moura, director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, said in the Bloomberg story. “I certainly do think it’s our most cautionary tale.”

Reading all the possible scenarios that could happen this summer is like something out of a Hollywood disaster movie with possible cyberattacks taking the nation’s power resources offline or just a series of unfortunate events contributing to a massive power failure across aging assets overdue for maintenance and upgrades.

We know a little something about massive power outages here in Texas, right? If not, see the entry marked “February 2021, power outage, Texas, catastrophic.”

Now, as the report indicates, there’s enough potential trouble to go around for just about every part of the country.

Some may recall the group issued a similarly dire warning a year ago. According to the Bloomberg story, it was possible that grids serving more than 40% of the nation’s population were at risk of outages then. Thankfully, it didn’t happen, and so some might read this year’s warning as just another bit of misplaced and pessimistic alarmism meant to prod people into dialing back on their AC.

Of course, it might also be that enough folks paid attention and responded accordingly. The thing about disasters that don't happen is they don’t get as much play in the media or attention from the masses. And we go on our merry way, oblivious to the catastrophe that could have been — but never was.

As we reported earlier this week, ERCOT’s summer forecast is optimistic, and the expectation is there will be ample power available to meet the state’s demands. Some suggest that’s an optimistic assessment. We’ll see and then we’ll know.

Here’s where I land on this. I expect state officials to communicate clearly and proactively in times of possible threats. I’d rather know about it ahead of time and respond accordingly than not hear about it and have to react.

The idea of conservation, even if suggested by a state agency, shouldn’t be such a terrible thing. I tend to believe that we are called to be stewards of God’s creation and all of the resources provided as a result. It seems there has been a steady shift in recent years from concepts like sharing and collective good to hording (there are still a few Toilet Paper Magnates out there) and individual comfort.

Please don’t take that as a blanket indictment; people around here are by and large extremely generous. I see it every day.

Conserving power lowers bills, which is something most of us can get behind, and shows a willingness to think about others. My hope this summer is ERCOT’s projections are correct and the lights stay on no matter how high the temperatures rise. After all, if I can do something that, in the grand scheme of things, is pretty small yet helpful, why wouldn’t I?

Who knows the difference it might make.

Doug Hensley is associate regional editor and director of commentary for the Globe-News.

This article originally appeared on Amarillo Globe-News: Hensley will this be the summer the lights go out across the country?