Here's how $1M fundraising haul of Laura Kelly's PAC could break supermajority in Kansas

Gov. Laura Kelly's political action committee raised about $1 million last year, giving the Democratic governor a substantial war chest for trying to break the Republican supermajorities this fall.

"Kansans are tired of extreme politicians pushing through their harmful, unpopular, and divisive agendas in the middle of the night," Kelly said in a statement from the Middle of the Road PAC. "They want leaders who are committed to Kansas values and who will work together to make Kansas the best place to live, work, and raise a family. These impressive numbers prove the desire — and need — for more middle-of-the-road leaders who are ready to put politics aside and work with me to deliver for all Kansans."

For PACs registered with the Kansas Government Ethics Commission, reports on receipts and expenditures in calendar year 2023 were due Wednesday.

The report from the Middle of the Road PAC wasn't immediately available online Tuesday morning. Officials with the PAC said in a news release that they reported raising about $993,000 since the PAC launched in July.

"While campaigns have gotten more expensive, that's still a substantial amount of money for a PAC in Kansas," said Washburn University political science professor Bob Beatty. "This PAC has already proven itself to be able to raise money, and that's the first step to being very influential."

Legislative races have traditionally cost roughly $10,000, or sometimes $20,000, Beatty said. While the higher cost of political campaigns over the past decade has started to trickle down to legislative races, it is still considered "quite a bit" for a candidate to top $100,000.

"So put that into the context of a PAC that could actually spend more money than the candidate or even both candidates running combined in an individual race, and it can be pretty powerful," he said.

That $1 million is likely to grow with additional fundraising prior to the Aug. 6 primary and Nov. 5 general election, and the big bank account could already influence politics before being spent.

"Just having the money in the bank can scare away potential candidates, or it can influence behavior," Beatty said.

Laura Kelly wants to use Middle of the Road PAC to break GOP supermajorities

"The Middle of the Road PAC will publicly endorse and support moderate Kansas candidates running for state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle, regardless of political party," the news release said. "The Middle of the Road PAC will endorse candidates who support expanding Medicaid, funding schools, and responsibly cutting taxes to put more money back into Kansas families' pockets."

While public statements indicate the PAC will endorse both Democrats and Republicans, Kelly told The Capital-Journal last month that the goal is to break the GOP supermajorities in the House and Senate.

"That is why we created the PAC, was with the intention of breaking the supermajority," she said. "It is difficult to govern — regardless of what party you are — if there is a supermajority that can, essentially, they have veto power. We need to eliminate that and get us back to being the way Kansas used to be, which was the parties came together and negotiated a compromise and moved on."

Kelly doesn't need to influence all 165 legislative races to accomplish her goal.

"The point of the PAC is breaking the supermajority, and the fewer races the PAC is involved in the better," Beatty said.

In the House, Republicans currently hold 85 of 125 seats, with 84 being a two-thirds majority. Democrats would need to hold onto their current 40 seats and flip two more to break the Republican supermajority — and likely primary a colleague who has sided with Republicans on veto overrides.

In the Senate, Republicans have 28 seats, Democrats have 11 and there is one conservative independent who generally sides with Republicans in the chamber of 40. Democrats would have to hold onto their 11 seats and flip three to prevent Republicans from reaching the 27 votes for a supermajority.

More: With 2024 elections looming, here's how Laura Kelly plans to break up GOP supermajorities

"This is unprecedented in Kansas politics to have such a big PAC wading into legislative races," Beatty said, especially for Democrats. "It has traditionally been the realm of the Republicans. ... Republicans have done it for years. This is really unprecedented in the scope on the Democratic side for the Legislature."

Moderate Republicans have always faced a threat of being primaried if they did not vote with conservatives, Beatty said, but now they will have to more seriously think through the consequences for the general election.

"Essentially this PAC is saying, 'You think the threat of a primary sounds rough, imagine a general election where $200,000 is being used against you,'" he said. "If you're a moderate Republican, either one doesn't sound too great."

"If you're Republican leadership, they're probably thinking they need to up their fundraising game," he said. "Because they're not just going to capitulate, from everything that we've seen. But it's certainly possible they're going to get a few members coming into them and saying, 'I may have a race with $100,000-$150,000 spent against me, what are we going to do about it?'"

Jason Alatidd is a Statehouse reporter for the Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached by email at jalatidd@gannett.com. Follow him on X @Jason_Alatidd.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Laura Kelly's PAC has raised $1 million to use in 2024 elections