Investors in Libbey Inc. (NYSEMKT:LBY) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.3% to close at US$1.53 following the release of its annual results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$786m, roughly what analysts had been expecting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on Libbey after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Libbey's one analyst are forecasting 2020 revenues to be US$783.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings result, analysts had predicted US$806.4m revenue in 2020, although there was no accompanying EPS estimate. The consensus seems a bit less optimistic overall, with the revenue forecasts following the latest results.
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of US$6.50, with Libbeyseemingly executing in line with expectations.
It can be useful to take a broader overview by seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the Libbey's past performance and to peers in the same market. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's that Libbey's decline is expected to slow down, with revenues forecast to fall 0.3% next year, improving on a historical decline of 1.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the market are forecast to see their revenue decline 5.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, at least analysts expect Libbey to suffer less severely than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
Probably the biggest thing to take away from these latest forecasts is that brokers are definitely optimistic on the business, given the forecast for profitability next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
One Libbey broker/analyst has provided estimates out to 2021, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Libbey's balance sheet, and whether we think Libbey is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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