There's been a notable change in appetite for Turning Point Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TPTX) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 15% to US$64.96. Revenues came in 44% better than analyst models expected, at US$25m, although statutory losses were 11% larger than expected, at US$0.73 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Turning Point Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Turning Point Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$26.2m in 2021, which would reflect a stressful 48% reduction in Turning Point Therapeutics' sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 48% to US$4.43 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18.0m and losses of US$3.95 per share in 2021. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$153, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Turning Point Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$186 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$120. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Turning Point Therapeutics shareholders.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though sales are expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$153, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Turning Point Therapeutics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Turning Point Therapeutics you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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