Here's a breakdown on Michigan's big congressional races in '24

If everything goes according to the current script — and there is no guarantee it will — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set for a rematch in 2024, with Michigan, again, likely playing a key role in determining the winner.

But while that race will dominate the headlines, a host of other political races will also play out in the state, including Michigan electing a new U.S. senator for the first time in a decade and a handful of open or hotly contested congressional seats.

The outcome of those races, in turn, will help determine just how much sway the president — who will be a lame duck ineligible for reelection in either case — has over setting appropriations and determining policy.

Here's a quick look at the state of those races and what you should know:

US Senate

This is the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Michigan., who announced in early 2023 she wouldn't run for a fifth six-year term. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since Spencer Abraham in 1994 — Stabenow beat him six years later — but that hasn't stopped nearly a dozen from filing.

Chief among them are former U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, Grosse Pointe businessman Sandy Pensler and state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder. Rogers, a former House Intelligence Committee chairman, has an edge in gathering ballot petition signatures, collecting endorsements and in fundraising, though Meijer and Pensler won't have any trouble self-funding campaigns if it comes to that. This field is big enough that it's possible the Aug. 6 primary will be fractured in such a way as to allow any of them to slip through, though don't be surprised if some don't get enough valid signatures to make the ballot.

Also, don't be surprised if an endorsement by Trump plays a large role in deciding the GOP nominee.

As for the Democrats, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Lansing, has the edge in experience and fundraising, having collected nearly $9 million as of the end of September (the most recent reporting period). Detroit actor Hill Harper and Dearborn businessman Nasser Beydoun have been working to gain footing, especially by trying to position themselves on the pro-Palestinian side demanding a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. Former state Rep. Leslie Love, of Detroit, and Ann Arbor attorney and activist Zack Burns are also in the race for the nomination.

US House, 3rd District

U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids, who is in her first term, is certain to get a challenge, given that this region was previously represented by Republicans going back decades. The seriousness of that challenge is a question, however, since this district appears to be somewhat more Democratic-leaning following redistricting ahead of the 2022 race and there are other districts that look like better pickup opportunities for Republicans.

Still, Scholten and the 3rd District, stretching from Grand Rapids to Muskegon, have attracted several GOP candidates, including Paul Hudson, of East Grand Rapids, a lawyer for Miller Canfield who refers to himself as "pragmatic and principled." He's also the grandson of Michigan State University Hall of Fame football coach Duffy Daugherty. Others in the race include Grand Haven financial adviser Michael Markey; Jason Ickes, a former Green Beret who unsuccessfully challenged the results of the 2020 elections, and Grand Rapids lawyer J. Allen Fiorletta.

US House, 7th District

Slotkin's departure from the race in this Lansing-based, mid-Michigan district to run for U.S. Senate makes it even more of a tossup than it was before — and it was enough of a toss-up in 2022 that some $41 million got spent on a race in which Slotkin, a tough campaigner and former acting assistant Pentagon secretary, beat former state Sen. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, 52%-46%. Barrett, a staunch conservative and former Army helicopter pilot, is back again this year as the only Republican to date in the race, facing former state Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr., D-East Lansing.

Republicans will be bullish on this race for good reason: Slotkin is known for historically raising tons of money and outperforming her party's ticket. And while Biden beat Trump in this area by about a percentage point in 2020, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in its confines in 2016. If younger voters in Lansing don't show up for Democrats, or suburban voters are waffling on Biden, it could tip the balance again. Hertel is an experienced politician from a well-known political family and has deep ties to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer but that sort of pedigree hasn't guaranteed much in recent elections, though Democrats will work to tag Barrett as an abortion extremist. Expect outside sources to pour lots of funds into this race.

US House, 8th District

Until Nov. 16, it was presumed that U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Township, would run for — and still be the prohibitive favorite to win — a seventh two-year term in Congress. Sure, the area the district encompasses around Flint, Bay City, Saginaw and Midland, had been trending more Republican in some recent elections. But a Kildee — Dan since 2015 and his late uncle Dale for 36 years before that — has been representing this region for a long time.

Well, starting in 2025, no longer. In November, Kildee, 65, said he wouldn't run for reelection following a health scare last summer, throwing this race into the toss-up category and possibly making it one of the hotter races in the nation. Republican Paul Junge, who lost to Kildee in '22 and hadn't been expected to run, quickly jumped into the nomination race with Saginaw police officer Martin Blank; on the Democratic side, several would-be candidates demurred — a possible indication about how hard it may be to win in this area with Trump also on the ballot — with only two, state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, of Saginaw, and Dan Moilanen, who lives in Flint and is executive director of the Michigan Association of Conservation Districts, joining the race to date.

US House, 10th District

U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, goes into his first reelection campaign much as Scholten does, representing a district that is probably marginally favorable to his party, especially in a year when Trump — who beat Biden within its confines by about a percentage point four years ago — is on the ballot. The one difference this time will be that, after running two unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaigns in 2018 and 2020 with no legislative record, now James has one. That record has largely tracked with Republican leaders in the House during this term, though it has also seen James tout efforts to protect and improve resources in the district.

What no one seemed to expect in '22, especially national Democrats, was that their nominee then, former Macomb County judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga, who is well known in the southern Macomb/eastern Oakland County district, would give James such a race, losing by less than half a percentage point despite being outspent by a margin of about 7-1. Marlinga is back this year but again facing a crowded primary that includes Dr. Anil Kumar, of Bloomfield Hills; Warren financial planner Diane Young; Emily Busch, the mother of a survivor of the Oxford High School shooting in 2021; Tiffany Tilley, of West Bloomfield, a member of the state Board of Education; lawyer Brian Jaye, of Rochester, and Rhonda Powell, Macomb County's former health and community services director. Of those, only Powell and Marlinga are back from two years ago and Kumar, Busch and Tilley all live outside the district. That may not be problematic, however, given that was true of James when he won in '22.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Here's a breakdown of Michigan's big congressional races in '24