Here's What China Would Need to Invade Taiwan

• The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Congress he doesn’t think China plans to invade Taiwan anytime soon.

• But if the Chinese Communist Party changes its mind, Gen. Mark Milley does think China wants the capability to invade by 2027.

• China’s military buildup of the last 30 years has concentrated heavily on air and naval forces necessary to launch an air and sea invasion of Taiwan.

The Pentagon says China won’t invade Taiwan in the near term, but is still increasing its efforts to build up the air, land, and sea forces necessary to take the island if it changes its mind. That’s according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, who made the statement testifying in front of Congress on Wednesday.

According to Milley, China’s leadership wants to be ready to capture Taiwan by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Milley said he thought the threat to Taiwan “is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next 6 years.”

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Despite the buildup, however, Milley said he saw no indication China intended to seize Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province, anytime soon. Such an invasion would require extensive preparations, and Milley said there’s no indication China is preparing to move within the next 12 to 24 months.

China’s economic push from one of the poorest countries in the world to one of the richest has supported, until recently, double-digit annual increases in the country’s defense budget. The budget is still seeing healthy increases of about 6 percent annually.

China has undertaken a dramatic series of reforms over the past two decades designed to transform it from a low-tech force to one on par with western armed forces. China has reorganized the armed forces, trimmed the size of its Army, and boosted the budget of its Navy and Air Force. All along, China’s emphasis has been on forces capable of projecting military power abroad.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has received a huge boost in recent years, changing from a green water coastal navy to a full-scale, blue water navy capable of operating in all the world’s major oceans. The PLAN currently boasts two aircraft carriers with a third under construction, and may eventually build as many as six carriers.

China has also embarked upon a dramatic amphibious ship construction effort, building eight Type 071 landing platform dock ships. Each Type 071 is capable of landing up to a battalion’s worth of Chinese marines on hostile territory, by ship or Type 726 hovercraft. China has also built two Type 075 amphibious assault ships similar to the U.S.’s Wasp-class ships, and plans to build six more. A total of 32 large amphibious ships, 16 medium ships, and 29 tank landing ships could conceivably transport all eight brigades of the PLAN Marine Corps in the first wave of an invasion.

Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been building up its fighter, bomber, and air transport forces. Fighters like the Chengdu J-10 and J-20 would attempt to establish air superiority over Taiwan, while modernized Xi’an H-6 bombers would strike critical targets with precision guided weapons.

Y-20 transport planes would airdrop the six PLAAF airborne brigades onto key targets on the island, particularly airfields and port facilities, and then ferry supplies to troops on the ground as they push inland to destroy Taiwan’s army.

Could China be ready for this scenario by 2027? Probably not. It would most likely take until 2035 to build enough sealift to transport the invasion force. China would also be smart to build more sealift than it needs, as each ship will have to make multiple trips to and from the island, exposed during each run to Taiwanese (and likely American) ships, planes, and submarines.

There’s also the question of training for an invasion, and if last week’s incursion by 28 Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone is any indication, China’s military training still has a long way to go.

Still, China’s leadership has a good reason to want to be ready sooner than later. China has repeatedly warned that a Taiwanese declaration of independence would trigger military action. If that happens and China isn’t ready to invade, it will undermine the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) credibility.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the rest of the CCP may not be in a rush to invade Taiwan, but understand events may force their hand—or make an invasion an attractive prospect.

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