Here's to happy winter days, even cold ones
Brrrrr, last weekend was cold! And yesterday we awoke to a snowy winter wonderland. Although the snow was pretty, it left most of us completely unprepared for winter.
Meantime, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service in June announced that this will be an El Niño winter. From what I remember growing up, this is when the water off the coast of Peru is 2 degrees warmer than usual. And although the definition has been refined, this slight variation creates big weather shifts and can influence the waters — and weather — worldwide.
It can even influence life here in Minnesota. In fact, many forecasters are saying we are in for a mild winter. That is OK with most of us, as long as there is a nice cover of snow.
2016 was the last strong El Niño. The last three years have been considered La Niña.
They have been occurring at least since the 1600s, when South American fishermen observed periods of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. Since it would usually peak in December — and was considered a gift — they named it El Niño de Navida. Later, La Niña (little girl) would also be named.
El Niño is a band of warmer water spreading west to east across Pacific Ocean. La Niña (its colder counterpart) spreads from east to west and is cooler water.
According to National Ocean Service (NOAA) trade winds usually blow west along the equator, moving warm water (from South America) to Asia. Cold water comes up from the deep — this is called upwelling — and replaces the warm water. But El Niño and El Niña break these patterns (in opposite ways). This can affect weather, ecosystems and economies, with El Niño occurring more frequently.
Basically, this occurs when colder water replaces warmer water. It interferes with the neutral jet stream and is considered a significant climate driver. (The neutral jet stream is the normal pattern of a band of strong wind in the upper atmosphere).
El Niños can also affect the economy. A recent article in Nature models that the negative impact of El Niños are much greater than the positive impact of La Niñas. Most estimates of the negative impact of El Niños are in the tens of billions of dollars in a global economy of over $100 trillion annually, but the authors of the Nature article estimate a 3-year effect ten times as large.
Some say these are natural weather patterns that have been occurring for millions of years. Others argue that El Niños will occur more frequently with climate change.
With El Niño the water releases a lot of heat into the atmosphere — it can increase the earth's temperature at least 2.7°F from pre-industrial levels.
According to the DNR, "In Minnesota, El Niño conditions have tended to produce mild winters with less snow on average. The 25 El Niño winters since 1950 averaged 1.8°F warmer on a statewide basis than non-El Niño winters and have produced an average of 22 percent less snow (12.7 degrees) in the Twin Cities."
Of course, there are exceptions, especially the Halloween blizzard of 1991, which happened during an El Niño event ... and was followed by other snowstorms in November. It appears this El Niño is abiding a more normal pattern.
It will be interesting to see how this winter unfolds, if we have an El Niño winter, or another La Niña event. Either way, winter is grand and a welcome respite from a busy and warm summer. Here is to happy days, even in the cold!
This is the opinion of Times Writers Group member Barbara Banaian, a professional pianist who lives in the St. Cloud area. Her column is published the first Sunday of the month.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Many forecasters are saying we are in for a mild winter.
