Here's how redistricting flipped the primary script on Pennsylvania Republicans

If you wanted a good-paying gig with plenty of job security in 2020, you couldn't do much better than "Republican in the Pennsylvania state legislature."

Even while President Trump was losing Pennsylvania on the way to being laid off by the American voters, down-ballot Republican incumbents here were virtually untouchable. In fact, six-term state Sen. Thomas Killion, who represented parts of Chester and Delaware counties, gained the unfortunate distinction of being the only Republican incumbent in the PA legislature to lose his seat in either the 2020 primary or general elections.

That's right. In a year in which 25 state Senate seats and all 203 House seats were on the ballot in both May and November, Killion's general election loss marked the only time a Republican incumbent tasted defeat.

Six Republicans already out

And while most incumbents still earned their parties' nods this month, it's clear that 2022 won't follow the 2020 script. Due to a combination of redistricting and intraparty strife, six Republicans have already lost their re-election bids. A seventh could follow. As of Wednesday morning, Sen. Patrick Browne trailed challenger Jarrett Coleman by a tiny 18-vote margin in the 16th District, which covers parts of Bucks and Lehigh counties.

Out of contention are Lehigh County Rep. Gary Day; Reps. Keith Gillespie and Stanley Saylor, both of York County; Rep. Jonathan Hershey, who currently represents the 82nd District, covering Juniata County and parts of Franklin and Mifflin counties; Rep. Michael Puskaric, whose 39th District covers parts of Allegheny and Washington counties; and Westmoreland County Rep. Jason Silvis.

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Redistricting played a key role in most of those defeats. This year the Legislative Reapportionment Commission shifted voting district boundaries to align with population changes reported by the decennial census. As a result of a process largely seen as favoring Democrats this time around, we've seen multiple cases in which the commission drew the lines in a way that placed two incumbents' homes in the same House district.

The redistricting claimed two Republican incumbents in Westmoreland County. Silvis represents the 55th District. But the redrawn 55th includes the home of Rep. Robert Brooks, the Republican representing the 54th District. Rather than challenge Silvis, Brooks decided not to seek reelection, then Silvis, a freshman representative, fell in the primary to Jill Nixon Cooper, the former chairwoman of the Westmoreland County Republican Committee. Cooper told Trib Total Media that, due to the redistricting, she didn't view the 55th as having a true incumbent.

“It was really a new seat and about 75% of the district was open. I thought it was an open seat," she said.

Unlike Brooks, Rep. Johnathan Hershey, R-82, didn't defer when his home was redistricted into first-term incumbent Republican Rep. Perry Stambaugh's 86th District. The new 86th will cover part of Hershey's Juniata County and Stambaugh's Perry County. The two incumbents-turned-rivals clashed in a race that turned so bitter over negative advertising claims that a May 13 debate between the candidates had to be scrapped after Stambaugh's campaign headquarters received a threatening phone call, according to a report in the Lewistown Sentinel. Hershey took 84% of the votes cast in less-populated Juniata County, but Stambaugh's Perry County base carried him to victory.

Two Republican incumbents — state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-134, and Rep. Gary Day, R-187 — also squared off in the primary to represent the redrawn 187th, with Mackenzie coming out on top.

On the Democratic side

One incumbent-vs-incumbent battle took place on the Democrats' side. Rep. Isabella Fitzgerald, D-203, in Northwest Philly, lost to fellow incumbent Rep. Christopher Rabb, D-200, in the newly redrawn 200th. Rabb is seen as more progressive and, according to WHYY, "has frequently tangled with Philly's Democratic committee," which had endorsed his opponent. Fitzgerald was one of just four Democratic incumbents to lose on May 17. (One of the others — Allegheny County Democrat Martell Covington — can barely be considered an incumbent. The winner of an April special election to fill a vacant seat, the Democrat had been on the job a mere three weeks.)

To view redistricting's full impact on the primary, look beyond the handful of races where those Republican incumbents — and the one Democrat — lost. The realignment cropped up again and again during the spring when incumbents such as Brooks looked at new district maps and opted to not to seek reelection.

Two dozen House Republicans — compared with nine Democrats — didn't run again. Some — like Brooks, Sue Helm, R-104, and Robert Schnee, R-116 — stepped away in part because they no longer live in the districts they currently represent. Others — like Andrew Lewis, R-105 — cited the district changes in press releases announcing their decisions.

While others didn't specifically list redistricting among their reasons for leaving, the makeup of their new constituencies likely played a role.

In the case of Bucks County Rep. Megan Schroeder, the LRC's updated map swapped out 75% of the 29th District's voters and boosted the Democrats' registration edge from about 600 to more than 2,000.

To stay in the PA Senate, longtime 14th District Sen. John T. Yudichak, the legislature's lone Independent, would have to challenge Republican Lisa Baker in her 20th District this fall. He says he will not. The commission relocated his 14th District from Carbon and Luzerne counties to Lehigh and Northampton counties, a move Yudichak told the Times Leader left him "profoundly disappointed."

Yudichak is one of five state senators not seeking re-election. The others are all Republicans. Centre County's Jake Corman ran for governor, while Montgomery County's Bob Mensch, Monroe County's Mario M. Scavello, and Bucks County's Tommy Tomlinson are all retiring.

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A GOP shift to the right

To be sure, some incumbents lost for reasons that seem unrelated to the redistricting.

The Pennsylvania GOP's rightward drift claimed Rep. Keith Gillespie, R-47, and Rep. Stanley Saylor, R-94, who've served their York County constituencies for a combined 50 years. They lost to Joe D'Orsie and Wendy Jo Fink, respectively, after another York County state representative — Mike Jones, R-93 — broke with GOP leadership and endorsed the newcomers. Jones suggested that Gillespie and Saylor didn't fight hard enough for election reform or against Gov. Tom Wolf's pandemic shutdowns and characterized D'Orsie and Fink as the better choices for conservative voters.

York County Republican Committee head Jeffrey Piccola blasted Jones for turning on Gillespie and Saylor and, after his effort to censure Jones failed in a committee vote, Piccola resigned his chairmanship on Election Day.

One thing is certain as we put the May primary behind us and turn our attention to November's general election, the impact of redistricting and the PA GOP's shift to the right will be two key storylines at the ballot box this fall.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: How redistricting flipped the 2022 primary script for PA Republicans