Here's who Seacoast NH voters will see on ballots in November and UNH expert's analysis

The big question in New Hampshire state government leading up to the 2022 general election on Nov. 8 is clear: Will Republicans retain control of everything?

Tuesday's primary election served to finalize the matchups for the races. Now Democrats and Republicans will battle it out for nearly two months in hopes of getting the upper hand.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is running for a fourth two-year term. Republicans have spent the past two years holding power over the entire state government after flipping the Senate, House and Executive Council in the 2020 election, taking away majorities from Democrats in all three bodies.

Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a political science professor, sees 2022 as being a very good year for Republicans in the state's general election. The reason? It's a midterm election with a Democrat, Joe Biden, as president.

"This is the classic problem you see in a midterm election year: How do you motivate your voters?" Smith said. "It's extremely difficult to motivate the president's party's voters."

Smith noted midterm elections bring out lower voter turnout than a presidential election year and are even more partisan with fewer middle-of-the road voters. He said issues like the economy and abortion won't be big factors.

"It's the motivation in midterm elections that's the big issue," he said. "It's not which party they're going to vote for, it's whether they're going to show up or not."

The same holds true for the New Hampshire state Senate and House races, according to Smith, who pointed to the redistricting in the state this year, a process that was led by Republicans because of their majority in the state Legislature.

"Republicans gerrymandered the districts even more solidly," Smith said. "Before, it took 53-54% of the popular vote for Democrats to win control. I think that number is even greater now."

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Here's an in-depth look at the statewide races and races in Rockingham and Strafford counties:

NH governor: Sununu vs. Sherman

This race is a matchup of Seacoast residents. Sununu, who lives in Newfields, easily defeated five far-right challengers in the primary Tuesday, and he is a heavy favorite in early polling to win his fourth two-year term. He is being challenged by Democratic state Sen. Tom Sherman of Rye, a medical doctor.

"It's going to be extra tough for Sununu to lose," Smith said, pointing to the governor's high job approval ratings among voters of both parties and independents. "My sense is he'll get 55-65 percent of the vote."

Smith noted Sherman is "largely unknown" and faces the challenge of the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire where the most money will be spent.

"The governor's race is not quite an afterthought, but it's down the list of peoples' interest," Smith said.

Sherman is pushing for a hard fight, releasing this statement Tuesday night:

"Granite Staters deserve a governor they can trust to fight for them. Chris Sununu broke his word by signing New Hampshire's first modern abortion ban, with no exceptions for rape, incest, or fatal fetal anomaly. He's catered to his fossil fuel donors for years instead of expanding our energy sources, and now Granite Staters are seeing some of the highest energy rate hikes in the country.  As governor I will stand up for our freedoms and protect a woman's right to choose, not cave to extremists like Chris Sununu."

Sununu fired back: “In this time of inflation fueled by Washington's out of control spending, strong fiscal management of the Granite State is more critical than ever. Under my leadership, New Hampshire has the fastest growing economy in the nation and is the No. 1 state for personal freedoms. With Tom Sherman as governor, New Hampshire would have an income tax, higher electricity taxes, and less freedom. The stakes are too high this November to change direction now."

A pair of libertarian candidates are also on the ballot: Karlyn Borysenko of Merrimack and Kelly Halldorson of Rye.

NH Senate races on Seacoast

Republicans head into the election with a 13-10 majority in the state Senate. The GOP majority was 14-10 until June, when Republican state Sen. Erin Hennessy of Littleton resigned to become deputy secretary of state.

The outcomes of these greater Seacoast area state Senate district elections in 2022 will help determine which way the power balance goes in 2022:

District 4: Sen. David Watters, a Democratic incumbent from Dover, is seeking re-election to a sixth two-year term. He is being challenged by Republican Seamus Casey of Barrington. The district, which leans toward Democrats historically, comprises Barrington, Dover, Rollinsford and Somersworth.

District 6: Sen. Jim Gray, a Republican incumbent from Rochester who is also a city councilor, is seeking re-election to a fourth two-year term. He is being challenged by Democrat Ruth Larson of Alton. The district, which leans toward Republicans, comprises Alton, Farmington, Gilmanton, New Durham, Rochester and Strafford.

District 21: Sen. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka, a first-term Democrat who previously served on the Portsmouth City Council, is uncontested in a heavily Democrat-leaning district. The district comprises Durham, Lee, Madbury, New Castle, Newfields, Newington, Newmarket and Portsmouth.

District 23: Republican state Sen. Bill Gannon, currently serving his second term, will be challenged by Democrat Brenda Oldak of South Hampton. Gannon serves as vice chairman of the Judiciary Committee and vice chairman of the Commerce Committee. Oldak is a business owner, registered nurse, welfare officer, and founder and co-chair of the South Hampton Council on Aging. The heavily Republican district comprises Brentwood, Chester, Danville, East Kingston, Epping, Fremont, Kensington, Kingston, Newton, Sandown, Seabrook and South Hampton.

District 24: State Rep. Debra Altschiller, D-Stratham, is facing businessman Lou Gargiulo, R-Hampton Falls, in the Senate District 24 race. Altschiller has represented Rockingham District 19 in the state House since 2016, winning three consecutive elections. Her legislative efforts have been in child protection, reproductive freedom, crime victims rights, support for families and fair wage issues, she said. Gargiulo, an Army veteran, is the CEO, owner, and founder of Great North Property Management based in Exeter. He is a former state representative and currently serves as a selectman in Hampton Falls. He vows to balance the budget, help small businesses succeed and fight against an income and sales tax.

NH Executive Council races on Seacoast

This election will be closely watched among party activists in New Hampshire.

The five-seat Executive Council, which has a 4-1 Republican majority, voted four times in 2021 and 2022 to reject family planning contracts. Each time Republicans rejected funding for the Equality Health Center, Lovering Health Center and Planned Parenthood of Northern New England. The funds, supported by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, would have paid for cancer screenings, testing for sexually transmitted diseases, contraception and other routine health care services for more than 16,000 low-income women. Republican councilors raised concerns that public money would pay for abortions and continued to vote no even after audit reports confirmed that funds were not commingled.

Republicans on the council also came under criticism by Democrats and some Republicans, including Sununu, for rejecting $27 million in federal COVID-19 vaccine funding for New Hampshire, though it later approved $22 million.

However, Smith said, most New Hampshire residents will vote strictly by party, and he believes Republicans gerrymandered the districts even more in their favor and are highly likely to retain the 4-1 majority.

Here's a look at the two races in districts that include Seacoast communities:

District 1: Republican incumbent Joe Kenney of Union seeks re-election, challenged by Democrat Dana Hilliard, the longtime Somersworth mayor, in a district that greatly changed in this year's redistricting process. Kenney graduated from Spaulding High School in Rochester, is a retired Marine colonel and has served in the state Senate. Hilliard, who became the state's first openly gay mayor in 2014, is a former five-term state representative. The district comprises more than 70 communities, including Dover, Durham, Farmington, Madbury, Rochester, Rollinsford and Somersworth.

District 3: Republican incumbent Janet Stevens of Rye, who is in her first term, will be challenged by Democrat Katherine Harake of Hampton. Stevens has served New Hampshire residents as a gubernatorial appointee, nonprofit steward, municipal government leader and small business owner. Harake has a professional background in finance and international business and earned a master’s degree in diplomacy. She currently serves as chair of the Hampton town Budget Committee. The district comprises 30 communities, including Hampton, Seabrook and Portsmouth.

Portsmouth area state rep. races

Republicans have 206 seats to 182 Democrats in the 400-member New Hampshire House heading into the 2022 election, with two independents and 10 vacancies making up the rest.

Rockingham County District 21 (Newington, Portsmouth Ward 1 — 1 seat): Democrat Robin Vogt, who ran as a progressive candidate, will be uncontested in the general election. Vogt won the primary Tuesday in a close 274-263 vote over incumbent state Rep. Jacqueline Cali-Pitts, who was first elected in 1998. The two candidates tied 46-46 in Newingtion with Portsmouth Ward 1 voters giving Vogt the margin of victory.

Rockingham District 22 (New Castle, Portsmouth Ward 5 — 1 seat): Democratic state Rep. Kate Murray of New Castle is running uncontested for a single seat in the reconfigured district.

Rockingham District 24 (Greenland, Rye — 2 seats): Incumbent Democratic Reps. Jaci Grote (Rye) and Dennis Malloy (Greenland) are being challenged by Republicans Wendy Stanley Jones (Greenland) and Marilyn Page (Greenland) in this reconfigured district.

Rockingham District 26 (Portsmouth Ward 3 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Joan Hamblet is running against independent candidate Scott Forte.

Rockingham District 27 (Portsmouth Ward 4 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gerald W.R. Ward is being challenged by Republican Alan Forbes.

Rockingham District 28 (Portsmouth Ward 2 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Rebecca McBeath is uncontested.

Rockingham District 37 (New Castle, Newington, Portsmouth Ward 1, Portsmouth Ward 5 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. David Meuse is uncontested.

Rockingham District 38 (Greenland, North Hampton, Rye — 1 seat):  Republican Robert Lincoln of Rye is running against Democrat Peggy Balboni of Rye and independent Steven Borne of Rye.

Rockingham District 39 (Portsmouth Ward 2, Portsmouth Ward 3, Portsmouth Ward 4 — 1 seat): Democrat Ned Raynolds of Portsmouth is running against Sue Polidura of Portsmouth.

Hampton area state rep. races

Rockingham District 19 (Hampton Falls, Kensington — 1 seat):  Republican Susan Porcelli will challenge Democrat Joe Pace.

Rockingham District 23 (North Hampton — 1 seat): Democrat incumbent Jim Maggiore will be challenged by Republican Kirsten Larsen Schultz.  Larsen Schultz defeated Rick Stanton in Tuesday's primary by a vote of 461 to 209.

Rockingham District 29 (Hampton — 4 seats): Eight are running for four seats. Democrats are incumbent state Rep. Mike Edgar, former state Rep. Chris Muns, local attorney Candice O’Neil and current member of the Hampton Budget Committee Matt Saunders. Republicans are incumbent state Rep. James Tracy Emerick, former state Rep. Ken Sheffert, William Jackson and Bruce Theriault.

Rockingham District 30 (Seabrook — 2 seats): Republican incumbents Tina Harley and Aboul Khan will be challenged by Democrats Bob Albright and Camille Daly.

Rockingham District 36 (Hampton Falls, Kensington, Newton, Plaistow, South Hampton — 1 seat): Democrat Elizabeth Kosta, of Plaistow, is running against Republican JD Bernardy, of South Hampton.

Rockingham District 38 (Greenland, North Hampton, Rye — 1 seat):  Republican Robert Lincoln of Rye is running against Democrat Peggy Balboni of Rye.

Rockingham District 40 (Hampton, Seabrook — 1 seat): Democrat Erica de Vries, of Hampton, will face off against Jason Janvrin, of Seabrook.

Exeter area state rep. races

Rockingham District 5 (Epping — 2 seats): Incumbent Republican state Reps. Cody M. Belanger and Michael Vose will be challenged by Democrats Joe Perry and Mark Vallone.

Rockingham District 6 (Brentwood — 1 seat): Incumbent state Rep. Melissa A. Litchfield is running against Democrat Eric S. Turer.

Rockingham District 10 (Newfields, Newmarket — 3 seats):  Incumbent Democratic state Reps. Charlotte DiLorenzo, Michael Cahill, Ellen Read will be challenged by Republican Jeanene Cooper.

Rockingham District 11 (Exeter — 4 seats): Democratic incumbent state Reps. Gaby Grossman, Mark Paige, Julie D. Gilman and political newcomer Linda J. Haskins will be running against Republicans Edward Duncan, William A. Smith and Robin Tyner.

Rockingham District 12 (Stratham — 2 seats): Republican state Rep. Patrick Abrami and Joanne Ward will be running against Democrats Zoe R. Manos and Allison Knab.

Rockingham District 14 (East Kingston, Kingston — 2 seats): Incumbent Republican state Reps. Deborah L. Hobson, of East Kingston, and Kenneth L. Weyler, of Kingston, are being challenged by Democrats Kim Casey, of East Kingston, and Trisha Tidd, of Kingston.

Rockingham District 33 (Exeter, Newfields, Newmarket, Stratham — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Alexis Simpson will be challenged by Republican Robert Sacco. Sacco defeated Jessica Kliskey in Tuesday's primary.

Dover, Durham, Rochester and Somersworth area state rep. races

Strafford County District 4 (Barrington/Strafford — 3 seats): In a reconfigured district, incumbent Rep. Cassandra Levesque (Barrington) is joined on the ballot by fellow Democrats Heath Howard (Strafford) and Matthew D. Towne (Barrington). Republicans have two incumbents Reps. Len Turcotte (Barrington) and Kurt Wuelper (Strafford), along with Davis Miller (Barrington).

Strafford District 5 (Rochester Ward 1 — 1 seat):  Republican incumbent Rep. Thomas L. Kacyznski Jr. is being challenged by Democrat Patricia Turner in a reconfigured district.

Strafford District 6 (Rochester Ward 2 — 1 seat):  Republican incumbent Rep. Clifford Newton is being challenged by Democrat Kathleen Cavalaro.

Strafford District 7 (Rochester Ward 3 — 1 seat):  Republican incumbent Rep. Aidan Ankarberg is being challenged by Democrat Mark Sorensen.

Strafford District 8 (Rochester Ward 4 — 1 seat): Democrat incumbent Rep. Chuck Grassie is being challenged by Republican David Walker in a matchup of two longtime civic leaders in Rochester.

Strafford District 9 (Rochester Ward 6 — 1 seat): Republican Brandon Phinney is facing Democrat Nevin Dexter.

Strafford District 10 (Durham — 4 seats): Democrats Cam Kenney, Loren Selig, Marjorie Smith and Timothy Horrigan were the primary winners over Peyton McManus Tuesday, with the top four advancing to the general election in a town that is a longtime stronghold for Democrats. Kenney, Smith and Horrigan are incumbents. Horrigan finished just eight votes ahead of McManus for the fourth and final spot. The Republican challengers are Bonnie McDermott, Jennifer Betts Olszewski, Tyanne Sylvestre and Clifford E. Zetterstrom.

Strafford District 11 (Dover Ward 4/ Lee, Madbury — 3 seats): In a reconfigured district, Democrats have two incumbents, Rep. Janet Wall (Madbury) and Thomas Southworth (Dover) on the ballot, along with Hoy Robert Menear (Lee). There is one Republican challenger: Wayne Lehman (Lee).

Strafford District 12 (Rollinsford, Somersworth wards 1-5 — 4 seats): Democrats on the ballot include incumbents Gerri Cannon, Cecilia Rich and Kenneth Vincent, along with Jeffrey Rich in a reconfigured district. Republicans are Nick Boyle, Ken Hilton, Steve McMahon and Matthew Spencer. All candidates reside in Somersworth.

Strafford District 13 (Dover Ward 6 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Peter Bixby is uncontested.

Strafford District 14 (Dover Ward 1 — 1 seat): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Peter Schmidt is uncontested.

Strafford District 15 (Dover Ward 2 — 1 seat):  Democrat Bill Conlin is uncontested.

Strafford District 16 (Dover Ward 3 — 1 seat): Democrat Gail L. Pare and Republican Sally Staude.

Strafford District 17 (Dover Ward 5 — 1 seat): Democrat Jessica LaMontagne is uncontested.

Strafford District 18 (Barrington, Middleton, New Durham and Strafford - 1 seat): In a reconfigured district, incumbent Republican state Rep. Michael Harrington of Strafford is being challenged by Democrat Jackie Cilley of Barrington, a former state representative and state senator.

Strafford District 19 (Rochester wards 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 — 3 seats): Each party entered the primary with four candidates. Republicans Fenton Groen, James Connor and Kelley Potenza were the primary winners in a four-way race against Isabella Koenigs. The three Republican primary winners will face off against Democrats Daniel Fitzpatrick, David Herman and Jerry Minihan in the general election. Seph Warren lost the Democratic primary by 15 votes.

Strafford District 20 (Dover Ward 4, Durham, Lee, Madbury — 1 seat): Democrat Allan Howland and Republican Mark Racic are both Durham residents.

Strafford District 21 (Dover wards 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 — 3 seats): Democrats Luz Bay, Susan Treleaven and Geoff Smith were the primary winners Tuesday over Nathaniel Stewart. They will face Republicans John V. Caggiano, Michael Castaldo and Mark Hastings in the general election.

Strafford County government races

County commissioners: Democratic incumbents Deanna Rollo (Rollinsford), George Maglaras (Dover) and Robert J. Watson (Rochester) are being challenged by Republicans Fergus Cullen (Dover), Jonathan T. Otterson (Dover) and Susan DeLemus (Rochester).

Sheriff: Mark Brave, a Democrat and Dover resident in his first two-year term, is uncontested on the ballot.

Attorney: Tom Velardi, a Democrat who has served since 2008, is uncontested.

Treasurer: Incumbent Pamela Arnold (Milton), a Democrat, is being challenged by Republican Sherry Beaudoin (Rochester).

Register of deeds: Incumbent Catherine Berube (Dover), a Democrat, is being challenged by Republican Warren W. Smith (Durham).

Register of probate: Republican Nancy Sirois (Rochester) is running uncontested after Democrat Luz Bay vacated the seat to seek another office.

Rockingham County government races

County commissioners: Democrat incumbent Kate Coyle is being challenged by Republican Rich Sawyer, of Hampton, for county commissioner District 1. Republicans Bill Baldwin, of Atkinson, Heather Iworsky, of Windham, John T. O'Connor, of Derry, and Steven L. Goddu, of Salem, are running for county commissioner District 2.

Sheriff: Incumbent Chuck Massahos, R-Salem, will be challenged by Kevin Coyle, D-Portsmouth.

Attorney: Incumbent Patricia Conway, R-Atkinson, will be challenged by attorney Rich Clark, D-Portsmouth.

Treasurer: Scott Priestley, R-Windham, is on the ballot. Alexander Wahl, D-Brentwood, is running as write-in.

Register of deeds: Cathy Stacey, R-Salem, is being challenged by Michael McCord, D-Exeter.

Register of probate: Lisa A. Massahos, R-Salem, is running against Democrat Sean McBride Lewis.

Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.

Debra Altschiiller, a state Senate candidate, is the wife of Seacoast Media Group Executive Editor Howard Altschiiller. 

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: NH election 2022: Governor, Executive Council, Seacoast state races