Here's why AG Ken Paxton's impeachment trial will gain attention well beyond Texas

AUSTIN — The impeachment trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton that starts Tuesday in the Texas Senate will likely send ripples throughout the Republican Party nationally — and may well expose an intraparty civil war in the nation's largest red state.

That's the assessment from several Texas and national political experts, including plugged-in operatives from both parties who see the coming trial as a fight between the GOP faction that brought the impeachment and a solid base of conservatives who are standing by the embattled Republican attorney general.

"I think this has legs nationally. Several defenders of Ken have already been seen on Steve Bannon's show and a bunch of other MAGA network channels," said Luke Twombly, a former spokesman for the Texas GOP, who referenced the close aide to former President Donald Trump and the "Make American Great Again acronym.

"It has national implications, and people in D.C. are watching this GOP civil war in Texas with great interest."

The fate of Paxton, first elected in 2014 as Texas' top lawyer and then twice reelected, rests with the members of the solidly Republican state Senate with the conservative Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick acting in the role of judge. If two-thirds of the 31-member body vote to convict on any of the 16 charges he's facing, the now-suspended attorney general would be permanently removed from office.

Paxton's wife, Angela, is a member of the Senate but under the rules of impeachment the chamber has adopted, she will not be allowed to vote.

The Trump-Paxton comparisons

Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, likened the high-stakes political drama unfolding in Austin that has put the three-term Paxton in the crosshairs to the ever-expanding legal turmoil for Trump.

More: Ken Paxton doesn't want to testify at impeachment trial. But his silence could hurt him.

But where Trump appears to retain a solid grip on many of the factions within the national GOP, 70% of the Republican members of the Texas House voted to bring the impeachment against Paxton.

"Considering how solidly the Republicans in Congress backed Trump in both impeachments, it is remarkable that a heavily Republican House of Representatives would impeach the incumbent, thrice-elected GOP attorney general," Sabato said.

Mark McKinnon, a former campaign aide and adviser to George W. Bush during his time as Texas governor and as president, agreed with Sabato's Trump-Paxton comparison. And, he said, that's helping the Texas impeachment elbow its way into the national political conversation.

"There's not a lot of stories out there as crazy as the Trump story, but this one's close, said McKinnon, the co-creator and co-host of Showtime's "The Circus: Inside the Greatest Political Show on Earth."

"It's big enough that it has crossed state lines," McKinnon said.

McKinnon, a one-time Democrat, can trace his political involvement to 1984 when he was a volunteer on the ill-fated U.S. Senate campaign of now-Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Austin and went on to work for Gov. Ann Richards. He said the Paxton saga has helped wipe away some of the inevitable jadedness that comes after four decades in politics.

"I was surprised, and relieved, to see that it appears that there's going to be some level of accountability for Ken Paxton and in our politics more generally," said McKinnon, who now makes his home in Colorado. "I had begun to believe that maybe things were just so partisan that teams would go shirts and skins, and it didn't matter what anybody did. If you're a Republican, they were innocent. If you're a Democrat, they're guilty."

Paxton impeachment: Old news or overdue accountability?

Paxton, who is also under indictment on securities fraud charges that have been pending since 2015 and under federal investigation, has called the impeachment charges unfounded and politically motivated. They include allegations that he abused his office to help a friend and campaign donor who impeachment managers say paid for home remodeling and for putting on his payroll a woman with whom the attorney general is said to have had an affair.

Twombly said most of the allegations have been aired and re-aired over the course of Paxton's three statewide campaigns.

"It's old news," he said. "I think everyone knows there's plenty of baggage with Paxton. But the thing is, all sins can be forgiven if you fight. And since he's a fighter for the cause, people are willing to look past indiscretions and some problems."

Could impeachment be a win for GOP?

Chad Wilbanks, a former executive director of the Texas GOP who also has worked for the Republican National Committee, said Paxton's impeachment can end up being a plus for the party on the state and national levels.

More: With flurry of motions, Ken Paxton asks Senate to toss out impeachment charges without trial

Republicans nationwide could learn from the Texas House GOP leadership for holding its own to account.

"As far as national implications, I don't think it hurts at all," he said. "As far as state implications, I think it makes the Republican Party stronger."

That puts him at odds with fellow Republican Twombly, who predicted that GOP senators will pay dearly if they are part of the effort to oust Paxton. The attorney general remains a staunch ally of Trump, and proudly touted the former president's endorsement during the 2022 primary.

"If you vote against Ken, you're voting for a primary challenger," Twombly said. "The GOP primary voters across the board all said, 'we want him.' And then across the state, he won his election."

Wilbanks, who like Twombly is now a private consultant, said it's unfortunate that some conservative groups are seeking to influence Republican senators from weighing all the evidence assembled by the House impeachment managers in preparation for the trial.

"They are personally attacking Republicans for doing the right thing," he said. "Once upon a time, Republicans, all Republicans, used to stand for moral values. It seems that these fringe groups out there disagree with that."

Wilbanks said Republicans would be wise to put Paxton in the rearview mirror.

"Is Ken Paxton a fighter for Texas? Unequivocally, the answer's yes. There's no doubt about that," Willbanks said. "But is Ken Paxton the only one that can fight for Texas as attorney general? No, we are a state full of rock-solid, hardcore conservatives that, as attorneys, can fight just as hard as Ken has."

Democrat: Republicans looked the other way on Paxton for a decade

Democratic operative Matt Angle said the Republicans now demanding accountability from Paxton are acting more out of convenience than conviction, and political watchers and ordinary voters who watch the livestreamed proceedings from the Senate chamber will see that on display.

"I don't think the Republicans can act like they've cleansed themselves if they remove Paxton, because they put up with it for 10 years," Angle said. "The reason that he was able to abuse the AG's office as an engine to create favors for his friends was because they allowed him to for more than a decade."

Sabato said that even without the comparisons to Trump's troubles, the list of allegations facing Paxton are enough to gain notice by even casual followers of politics.

"The charges are serious in anyone’s book, and suggest corruption on a level that is eye-popping," he said. "This is not what one expects (from) a state attorney general in either party, especially a conservative law-and-order official.

"Is Ken Paxton a household name across America? No, not yet. But Texas is a mega-state, and everyone in politics wants to see if Paxton will get away with messing with Texas."

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly called Twitter, @JohnnieMo.

This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Why Ken Paxton's impeachment trial will gain attention beyond Texas