High hopes for Ukraine's 2nd counteroffensive against Russia

After a first phase marked by slow progress and heavy equipment losses, Ukraine has regrouped to launch a second, more forceful thrust to reclaim its territory. The purpose of the new counteroffensive is to smash through Russia’s fortified positions in the Zaporizhzhia region on the occupied nation’s eastern border.

If the Ukrainian charge can pry an opening in the Russian defenses and reach the Azov Sea, the Kremlin could see its grip on the four regions it illegally annexed last year weakened by the time cold weather arrives and the fighting slows.

“This is the big test,” an unnamed high-ranking official told the New York Times, which first reported on the battlefield development.

For months, Western allies have been equipping Ukraine with tanks, heavy armor and other equipment. Soldiers have been trained in sophisticated battlefield logistics. And expectations for the summer counteroffensive rose ever higher.

Those expectations were somewhat dashed last month when Ukrainian battalions discovered the extent of Russian antitank fortifications and minefields, which made progress almost impossible — and costly.

Now, after weeks of trying to soften up Russian positions with long-range artillery, Ukrainian troops are pushing east with renewed energy.

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Initial gains in Zaporizhzhia

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces “appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions” near the town of Orikhiv. They also “managed to penetrate and drive through tactically challenging defensive positions” near the village of Robotyne. Both villages are on the path to the Azov Sea.

In addition, Ukrainian troops took control of Staromaiorske, a village in the Donetsk region, east of Zaprozhizhia.

And verified aerial footage also showed intense fighting around Bakhmut, where ferocious combat raged throughout the winter, thanks in part to the involvement of Wagner Group mercenaries on the Russian side.

Bakhmut is also in Donetsk, which Russia first occupied in 2014.

Ukrainian progress throughout the last 48 hours suggests a more considered — and coordinated — approach than during the first stage of the counteroffensive, when Ukrainian tanks and heavy armor often found themselves trapped and under attack from Russia’s Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has sometimes seemed disengaged from day-to-day battlefield realities, has seemed aware of current battlefield dynamics.

“We confirm that hostilities have intensified and in a significant way,” he said from his native city of St. Petersburg, where he was meeting African leaders.

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A war with no end in sight?

The second round of Ukraine’s counteroffensive could well turn out to be more successful than the first. But that does not mean the 17-month-old war is coming to an end anytime soon.

“By placing too many bets on the outcome of this offensive, Western countries have not effectively signaled their commitment to a prolonged effort,” warned the Russia analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee several weeks before the counteroffensive began.

Policymakers in the United States and Europe have continually been forced to balance Ukraine’s needs with the fear of spurring Putin into escalating the conflict. And in Washington, Paris and London, domestic considerations have also intruded.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has never been shy about asking the West — the United States in particular — for more and heavier weaponry.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby disputed the notion that the United States has been reluctant to provide armaments that could decisively swing the conflict in Kyiv’s favor.

“We have provided the Ukrainians everything they asked for in the months leading up to the counteroffensive,” Kirby told Yahoo News at a White House briefing earlier this week.

Some observers believe that outright military victory will be impossible for Ukraine. Prolonging the war, they argue, will only cause more death and suffering. “The United States and its allies should begin to try to steer the conflict toward an endgame,” analyst Samuel Charap of the RAND Corporation recently wrote.

Kirby said it was too soon for diplomacy, especially with Ukrainian forces advancing on Russian positions. Zelensky “gets to determine if and when he’s ready to sit down and negotiate,” Kirby told Yahoo News. “Right now, his country is still under attack. He still has tens of thousands of Russian troops on his soil dug in deeply, entrenched, protected by minefields, on ground that doesn’t belong to them. And he has every right to want to reclaim his territorial integrity and his country’s sovereignty.”

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