High school football conditions: Warm air, dry turf, hot picks
The annual competition pitting staff writers Jim Paulsen and David La Vaque is a game closer and their working conditions a whole lot warmer and spacious this week.
Jim and David, striving to predict winners of high school football games, did that successfully last week, but Jim was more successful than David, going 7-0 to David's 6-1. David is 34-14 and Jim 31-17 going into the 14 semifinals to be played Thursday through Saturday at toasty, swanky U.S. Bank Stadium.
They'll pick those 14 games a day at a time. Their picks and analysis for Thursday's games:
NINE-MAN
Wheaton/Herman-Norcross Warriors (12-0) vs. Mountain Iron-Buhl Rangers (11-0), 10 a.m. Thursday
Jim says: Mountain Iron-Buhl QB Asher Zubich is a terrific athlete and a four-year starter at a position where experience matters. But Wheaton/Herman-Norcross has been dominant on both sides of the ball, winning every game by at least 21 points, most by much more. The pick: Wheaton/Herman-Norcross 42, Mountain Iron-Buhl 32
David says: Both teams bowed out in the 2021 state tournament quarterfinals — one game short of U.S. Bank Stadium. The first team to adapt to the environment will be in the best shape for a championship game appearance. The pick: Mountain Iron-Buhl 38, Wheaton/Herman-Norcross 31
Spring Grove Lions (12-0) vs. Fertile-Beltrami Falcons (11-0), 1 p.m. Thursday
Jim says: If one weighed simply margin of victory, the edge would lie with Fertile-Beltrami, whose 22-6 win over Ogilvie in the quarterfinals was its first win by less than four touchdowns all season. But Spring Grove comes out of Section 1 in southeast Minnesota, an area of the state renowned for championship football. Hard to overlook. The pick: Spring Grove 32, Fertile-Beltrami 26
David says: To Jim's point, defending Prep Bowl champion LeRoy-Ostrander represented Section 1. Is dominance transferable? What about Fertile-Beltrami's motivations after falling short in the 2021 title game? The Falcons will be led by junior QB Caiden Swenby. The pick: Fertile-Beltrami 21, Spring Grove 20
CLASS 4A
Simley Spartans (10-1) vs. Rocori Spartans (9-2), 4 p.m. Thursday
Jim says: Simley has the look of a championship-caliber team: physical, tough and mistake-free. But how much does experience matter? Rocori is just three years removed from a 2019 state championship and has emerged from a withering schedule. Simley has never played in U.S. Bank Stadium. The pick: Simley 24, Rocori 20
David says: Rocori QB Jack Spanier and RB Mason Dahl are tremendous playmakers. The program historically doesn't flinch against metro-area teams. Still, Simley is a handful. Bruising RB Gavin Nelson has found another gear this year. And Tay'Vion McCoy is an athlete capable of hurting teams in myriad ways. The pick: Simley 21, Rocori 17
CLASS 6A
Lakeville South Cougars (9-2) vs. Maple Grove Crimson (11-0), 7 p.m. Thursday
Jim says: A rematch of the 2021 Prep Bowl. Lakeville South is playing its best, most opportune football of the season, forcing turnovers and leaning on the defense. Maple Grove played its tightest game of the year, holding off an East Ridge charge in the quarterfinals. Can QB Jacob Kilzer and Crimson's four-pronged rushing attack overcome Carson Hansen and company? The pick: Maple Grove 31, Lakeville South 28
David says: The No. 1 team much of the season (Maple Grove) against the defending champs with a title game appearance on the line. It doesn't get much better than this. South's Hansen is a likely Mr. Football Award candidate. But in Kilzer, Maple Grove's best player has the ball in his hands on every play. The pick: Maple Grove 28, Lakeville South 24
