HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Predictions for every UIL state semifinal game

Nothing says, “Happy Holidays” more to me than college bowl games.

Yes, they are filled with uninspiring matchups, but those games are the perfect background noise for visiting with family and friends. And when something notable happens, it gives everyone something to talk about. A natural conversation starter.

Of course, I’m talking about my family. I grew up with sports constantly on the television. It wasn’t necessarily because my dad is a rabid sports fan. He loves the Texas Rangers and Texas Tech, but anything beyond that he has always watched because I have always been highly invested in sports.

This is still true because the only time he watches the NFL is when I show up for Thanksgiving or another random Sunday during football season.

My mother always grew tired of football during the holidays because I would try to watch every bowl game. Of course, we grow tired of her watching nothing but the Hallmark Channel. Pick your poison.

I was tuned in Sunday morning for the College Football Playoff selection show and couldn’t wait to see the full bowl schedule.

For years, I’ve written preseason bowl projections but didn’t find the time to fully produce it this year. But I do have a spreadsheet full of predictions.

I only got one of the final four correct. My semifinal projections were Clemson vs. Notre Dame and Oklahoma vs. Georgia. I had Oklahoma winning it all.

I was way off on Clemson, and Oklahoma wasn’t nearly as good as expected.

I only got one of my bowl predictions exactly right – BYU vs. UAB in the Independence Bowl. I’ll take the one win and ignore the other 40-plus losses.

With bowl season approaching, I thought a relevant top five list for this week’s prediction blog would be the seven bowl games I’m most looking forward to this season.

I’m not including the two semifinal matchups. Obviously, even casual college football fans will be tuning in for those. But all other bowl games are in play for this list.

7. Birmingham Bowl: Houston vs. Auburn – The Cougars had a strong season in the AAC. How will Dana Holgorsen’s group matchup against Auburn? Or will Auburn even show up in full force for this game? That’s always a relevant question for bowl games. It doesn’t matter as much to larger programs.

6. Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. San Diego State – Two of the best teams from non-power conferences makes for a fascinating matchup. San Diego State has an elite defense. How will it matchup against UTSA’s stellar offense headlined by tailback Sincere McCormick?

5. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon – These were two programs once projected to be in the CFP before late losses derailed those chances. And both programs are in the midst of coaching changes. Bob Stoops is back leading the Sooners for one game. That alone makes me want to tune in.

4. TaxSlayer Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M – I watched Wake Forest play multiple times this season. The Demon Deacons’ offense is fun to watch and will offer a challenge for a strong A&M defense.

3. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Baylor – Once again, it’s a great offense vs. great defense matchup. Baylor’s Dave Aranda should be the national Coach of the Year, even over Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell. I actually projected Baylor to make a bowl game in the preseason but as a 5-7 team filling in because I didn’t predict enough 6-6 bowl eligible teams. I’m just pointing out more ways I was wrong here.

2. Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State – Love this matchup. It’s the best of the New Year’s Six. It won’t be a high-scoring affair with both teams relying more on stout defenses. And it’s a chance for the underrated Oklahoma State fanbase to show it can be in the same league as one of the nation’s most popular teams.

1. Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State – Scheduling genius. The lead for this game writes itself. Mike Leach against a program he took to unprecedented heights and later sued after alleged wrongful termination. And there is still a strong contingent of Red Raider fans and boosters who want Leach back. I can’t wait for the Leach interviews leading into and after the game.

On to the picks…

There are 20 state semifinal games being played this weekend. and the TRN Sports “expert” panel is predicting each one.

Of course, none attract more attention locally than Hirschi’s first state semifinal appearance since 1964.

CLASS 4A DIVISION I

Stephenville 32, Hirschi 24 – I can talk myself into a Hirschi win. The Huskies are explosive in all three phases of the game. But I don’t think Stephenville will make the mistakes that allow that explosiveness to shine on defense and special teams. Stephenville’s size can give Hirschi issues, and I think the Yellow Jackets will try to force the Huskies to beat them with the pass. And Hirschi is definitely capable with its impressive receiving corps. I just see the Huskies coming a little short. But no one is going to doubt they belonged on the same field as Stephenville.

Austin LBJ 49, Tyler Chapel Hill 27 – Chapel Hill is a good story, but not on the same level as LBJ. However, should Hirschi and Chapel Hill pull upsets this week, it might be more than Hirschi grad Steven Offield can take. Offield was the head athletic trainer at Hirschi for more than a decade. He now holds the same position at Chapel Hill.

CLASS 6A DIVISION I

Southlake Carroll 35, Duncanville 34 – This is the state’s marquee matchup on a slate full of marquee matchups. I’m going with Carroll on a hunch. I like the Dragons’ overall resume a little better.

Galena Park North Shore 34, Lake Travis 23 – North Shore returns to the state title game after a one-year absence. The Mustangs won it all in 2018 and 2019.

CLASS 6A DIVISION II

Denton Guyer 27, Tomball 15 – Tomball is a surprise semifinalist. The Cougars run ends against a stout Guyer defense, making sure Denton ISD is represented in a state championship game for a third straight seasons.

Austin Westlake 41, Katy 23 – I put Westlake on a level above everyone else in Class 6A Division II. The Chaps would be the smart pick to win the Class 6A Division I title, too.

CLASS 5A DIVISION I

College Station 41, Mansfield Summit 17 – Summit’s offense struggled to move the ball against Colleyville Heritage last week, needing four turnovers to get a 21-9 win. The Jaguars aren’t limiting an offense headlined by stellar tailback Marquise Collins.

Katy Paetow 49, Corpus Christi Flour Bluff 14 – Paetow is only its fourth varsity season and should be heading to a state title game. Flour Bluff isn’t on the same level. Even the enrollment numbers are very lopsided with these two schools. Paetow is headed to Class 6A. Flour Bluff opted up to 5A Division I from 5A Division II.

CLASS 5A DIVISION II

Dallas South Oak Cliff 21, Lubbock-Cooper 14 – I’m not convinced Lubbock-Cooper can score enough points to knock off a SOC team that appears destined for a state title.

Crosby 33, Liberty Hill 30 – Liberty Hill’s slot-T offense is rarely seen at the Class 5A level, particularly at this juncture of the playoffs. Crosby survived the offense two years ago in the state semifinals, and I think the Cougars will manage to get by again Friday.

CLASS 4A DIVISION II

Celina 38, Gilmer 18 – We could see what Celina was destined for this season during last season’s state quarterfinal matchup with Graham. This is a team worthy of a state championship.

China Spring 31, Cuero 21 – China Spring has defeated two of the division’s giants in Carthage and West Orange-Stark. It’s hard to pick against the Cougars at this point.

CLASS 3A DIVISION I

Brock 47, Mount Vernon 20 – Brock is a team on a mission. And after dropping 70 on Jim Ned, it’s difficult to find anyone ready to keep the Eagles from winning this year’s state championship.

Lorena 48, Lago Vista 15 – Although Lorena offers a strong argument to that last statement. The Brock-Lorena matchup seems like the most likely state title game to be formed this weekend.

CLASS 3A DIVISION II

Gunter 41, Lubbock Roosevelt 21 – It’s been a great run for Roosevelt, but this is Gunter. Beating Abernathy is one thing. Stopping this loaded Gunter team is a whole other level.

Franklin 39, Waskom 13 – Franklin has allowed 13 points total in four playoff games, scoring at least 60 points in each matchup. I’ll keep the Lions well under that total this week in a step up in competition, but I won’t give Waskom more than what the Lions have allowed.

CLASS 2A DIVISION I

Hawley 23, Marlin 21 – Hawley has fared well in close games and doesn’t mind grinding out a win. This was a hard pick to make, and I went back and forth several times. Even now, I’m feeling like I made the wrong choice. But I’ll stick with what’s printed in the paper.

Shiner 48, Timpson 26 – After what Shiner did to Refugio last week, it would be insane to pick against the Comanches. They still have to go earn the state title with two more wins, but I’ve already crowned them.

CLASS 2A DIVISION II

Stratford 14, Albany 13 – Hardest game of the week to pick. It’s a total tossup. I think points will be at a premium. This is a gut pick. And honestly, I saw everyone else picking Albany and didn’t think it should be unanimous.

Mart 44, Falls City 14 – Mart is headed for a fifth consecutive state title game appearance. And it’s up to someone other than Windthorst to shock the Panthers this season.

This article originally appeared on Wichita Falls Times Record News: HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Predictions for every UIL state semifinal game