High stakes: Connecticut’s election Tuesday will decide hundreds of races and factor into control of U.S. House

After months of campaigning and tens of millions of dollars spent, Connecticut voters will head to the polls Tuesday in high-stakes elections for everything from governor and U.S. senator to registrars of voters and local probate judges.

In public polls, Gov. Ned Lamont has a solid, double-digit lead over Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski of Madison and a far larger lead over bank executive Robert Hotaling of the Independent Party.

U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal holds a similar lead over Greenwich GOP fundraiser Leora Levy in a battle that has featured harshly negative advertising during the final week.

But both Stefanowski and Levy say that internal polls and anecdotal evidence show that the races are much closer than the nonpartisan polls by Quinnipiac University and Emerson College would indicate.

The closest major race is predicted to be U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes against Republican challenger George Logan in a contest rated as a “toss up.’' National political committees have spent more than $7 million combined to help maintain the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives as Republicans try to recapture it and remove liberal Democrat Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker. Democrats are fighting in districts around the country to retain incumbents like Hayes, a two-term lawmaker who is viewed as politically vulnerable.

In a major election year, the entire slate of Connecticut constitutional offices is up for grabs, including state attorney general, comptroller, treasurer, and secretary of the state. All 187 seats in the legislature, including 36 in the state Senate and 151 in the House of Representatives, are on the ballot. In addition, Democratic incumbents in all five U.S. House of Representatives districts, including Hayes, are seeking reelection against Republicans.

On the far right side of the ballot is a question that is sometimes overlooked by voters. The question is: “Shall the Constitution of the State be amended to permit the General Assembly to provide for early voting?’' A similar question was rejected by voters in 2014, but advocates believe the chances are better this year as Connecticut remains among only four states that do not have early voting.

Governor

The most expensive race of the year pits Lamont against Stefanowski as the two multimillionaire former business executives compete in a rematch of the 2018 race that Lamont won by three percentage points. This time, Lamont had already spent $21.7 million by Oct. 30 — nearly $6 million beyond his total for the entire race four years ago. Stefanowski pledged to spend at least $10 million, and he had already spent $12.2 million by the latest filing date.

In addition, outside groups including the Republican and Democratic governors associations have spent a combined $9 million — bringing the total on the governor’s race to a record of nearly $43 million.

For the first time in more than 100 years, Lamont will be the first candidate for governor whose name appears on three lines on the ballot: Democrat, the Griebel-Frank for CT Party and the union-backed Working Families Party. Political insiders say that will help Lamont because he is expected to pick up extra votes on the various lines. Stefanowski and Hotaling will be on one line each.

For months in an increasingly bitter campaign, Lamont and Stefanowski have disagreed on virtually every major issue, including crime, taxes, abortion, state spending, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the final debate and again two days later, Stefanowski charged that patients with COVID had exposed elderly residents to the virus in nursing homes, saying that he had caught Lamont in a lie on the issue. Stefanowski appeared outside the state Capitol with former state public health commissioner Renee Coleman-Mitchell, who filed a federal lawsuit against Lamont after being fired in the early days of the COVID outbreak.

Lamont countered that the charges were “absolutely false,’' saying that COVID patients were sent to nursing homes that had been previously closed or were isolated in separate wings.

“Bob’s sources are incorrect and were later corrected after their original publishing,’' Lamont’s campaign said. “But something as simple as the truth won’t stop Bob from using inaccurate statistics and stories to try and scare voters.’'

The candidates also disagreed sharply on crime with Lamont pointing to recently released statistics from the state Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection that show that overall crime is down statewide. Stefanowski, though, says that crime is “out of control’' with more than 30 homicides in Hartford and thefts of catalytic converters in multiple communities.

“I have not met one person on the entire campaign trail that thinks they’re safer than they were four years ago,’’ Stefanowski said, adding that he has received endorsements from police unions in Hartford, New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury, Stamford, Enfield, Madison, Clinton, and the Fraternal Order of Police. “We can throw out stats. Rape up 23%. The most violent year in Hartford that we’ve seen since 2003, and it’s time to change our approach to law enforcement. This governor has decimated law enforcement across the state. The state troopers gave him a 70% vote of no confidence.’’

The candidates, who both attended a recent funeral at Rentschler Field for two Bristol police officers who were killed in the line of duty, disagree over the police accountability bill that Lamont negotiated and signed. Stefanowski wants to overturn various aspects of the law, but Lamont said the bipartisan law had nothing to do with the shooting deaths of two police officers in an ambush in Bristol.

“I just think that is the cheapest grandstanding you can imagine,’’ Lamont said in the final debate. “That was a madman who was drunk with an AR-15-style assault weapon. That’s what happened there. Get those AR-15-style assault weapons off the street if you really want to be serious about crime.’’

Hotaling, a first-time statewide candidate who lives in Cheshire, has spent about $60,000 on his campaign — a tiny fraction of the millions spent by his better-known rivals.

An Emerson College poll, released by Channel 8, showed Lamont ahead of Stefanowski by 52% to 41% with Hotaling trailing at 1% among likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.

U.S. Senate

While Levy and her allies were largely quiet in August and September, the campaign has heated up sharply in the final weeks with attacks on Blumenthal via television and mailers sent to voters’ homes. Besides TV ads, the Connecticut Patriots PAC charges that Blumenthal has been weak on the border and soft on crime — charges that he denies.

Levy has been running a commercial that says Blumenthal favors defunding the police, but he reacted sharply against that in their debate and responded with his own commercial that focused exclusively on his support for police, including increased funding.

Blumenthal, who holds double-digit leads over Levy in the public polls, is a political powerhouse who has raised millions of dollars and far outspent Levy, who was a surprise winner in the August primary after receiving the endorsement from former President Donald J. Trump. But some political observers say that Levy is too conservative for Connecticut and has not been a strong candidate for the general election.

Gary Rose, a longtime political science professor at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, says that Levy’s primary opponent, former House Republican leader Themis Klarides of Madison, would have been a better candidate against Blumenthal.

“I will not be surprised if in fact the outcome is a landslide’' for Blumenthal, Rose said in an interview. “I think the Republican Party is going to have to really start thinking about how they go about nominating candidates. ... It would have been really right down to the wire between Klarides and Blumenthal with possibly her winning this election. The polls show this big gender gap. Themis would have done much better among women — prochoice, more gun control. She was really right where so many voters in the state are on these issues, and she has experience. I think Themis would have been a much stronger candidate in terms of winning. ... The voters are not where Leora Levy is, and the polls are documenting that convincingly.’'

“The Republican primary voters — those who voted for [Levy] put principle above pragmatic politics, and that’s the way that a lot of the Trump voters are,’' Rose said. “It was an ideological statement made by a component of the Republican Party here in Connecticut, and the end result is I don’t think they’re going to win against Blumenthal, who really was very vulnerable this year. I am convinced they could have won that race, but this is not the candidate to do it.’'

But State Republican chairman Ben Proto says he believes Levy will do better than expected, even though she trails in the amount of money raised and the amount to television exposure.

“Clearly, she doesn’t have Dick’s money, but she’s not lacking in money, either,’' Proto said in an interview. “I know people are claiming they haven’t seen her on TV, but she has run a very strong digital campaign, a very strong grassroots campaign. I will give her credit — she has been everywhere. ... Obviously, I see her a lot in places where I go, but we’re often in the same types of places.’'

Proto says a committee overseen by U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer spent $150,000 on digital advertisements in Connecticut for Blumenthal. Normally, Schumer would not spend money on a safe seat, Proto said. Instead, he would spend it on nationally prominent races like Georgia, where Republicans are trying to defeat Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.

“You’re going to put it against Herschel Walker,’' Proto said of national Democratic money. “You’re going to put it in Pennsylvania, Arizona. There are a lot more important states for the Senate leader to be putting money into.’'

5th Congressional district

With only days left, the Hayes-Logan race for Congress is getting tighter in a dead heat that is expected to be a photo finish.

The highly respected Cook Political Report, which rates Congressional races, now says the battle is a “toss-up’' as national political insiders target the high-stakes race. The Super PAC of House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who wants to replace Pelosi as House Speaker, is pouring another $320,000 into the race after spending millions so far.

Overall, both sides have spent more than $7 million combined from outside, third-party groups that are not controlled by the candidates and are most interested in national control of the U.S. House.

In a fundraising email to supporters, Hayes acknowledged the additional fundraising by her opponents and the tightening in the race.

“Simply put, the GOP’s plan is paying off, and everyone is taking notice,’' the Hayes campaign email said. “This ratings change is an indicator that we need to double down on our work to get out the vote — because flipping this seat red is FAR from guaranteed, no matter what the GOP thinks. We need to keep it up — keep calling voters, keep knocking doors, keep running our TV ads — so Jahana’s message is heard loud and clear through this noise.’'

In the final, fast-paced days, Logan appeared Friday in Meriden and Saturday in New Britain with former Rep. Nancy Johnson, the last Republican to hold the seat until being defeated in 2006 by a young Chris Murphy. Johnson endorsed Logan at a time when Republicans believe they have their best candidate since then-state Sen. Andrew Roraback lost by only four percentage points in 2012.

“I think George Logan is the next Congressman from the Fifth District,’' Proto said. “Jahana is just an enigma in the Fifth district. She’s finally showing up. No one has ever seen her there. ... Between Danbury, New Britain, Waterbury, Meriden, and Torrington, you have a very working-class population that has been hit very hard and are suffering under the worst inflation that we’ve had in 40 years.’'

Proto and others note that Hayes has been criticized for years for not being a regular presence at events in the district and being difficult to reach.

Overall, the district has been trending Democratic as both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden defeated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 in the district. In the crucially important city of New Britain, which Republicans need to win to capture the district, Hayes won in 2018 and 2020.

Democrats have won the district every year since 2006 when a young upstart named Chris Murphy pulled off an upset against Johnson. Union employees were working for Hayes over the weekend to get out the vote in the Democrat-rich cities of New Britain, Meriden, and Danbury.

Rose, the political science professor, agrees that the race is a toss-up, adding that either candidate can win in a tight battle that will depend on turnout.

“It’s a dead heat,’' Rose said. “It could go either way. ... Lamont at the top of the ticket could help Jahana Hayes. That could do it.’'

Congressional races

Besides Hayes, all four Democratic incumbents in the U.S. House are seeking re-election, and Democrats say they expect them to win.

The races include U.S. Rep. John B. Larson against Dr. Larry Lazor in the first district; Rep. Joe Courtney against Republican state Rep. Mike France in the second district; Rep. Rosa DeLaura vs. Republican Lesley DeNardis in the third district; and Rep. Jim Himes against former Darien first selectman Jayme Stevenson in the fourth district in Fairfield County.

In an age of election deniers, voters say it is important that key public figures accept the results of the elections. The nation is still split politically as many Republicans strongly oppose the Democrat-dominated committee that is investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection that tried to stop the counting of Electoral College votes at the U.S. Capitol in Washington. More than 925 people have been arrested in connection with the violent insurrection, and more than 400 have pleaded guilty.

At their first and only debate, both Blumenthal and Levy were asked if they would accept Tuesday’s election results — and they replied swiftly.

“Of course,” Levy said.

“Yes, without question,’' Blumenthal responded.

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com