With high voter mobilization and record-breaking spending on Supreme Court race, high turnout is predicted in Wisconsin spring 2023 election

There’s an election Tuesday and Wisconsin loves to vote.

The state consistently ranks among states with the highest voter turnout in the country, though off-year spring elections don’t usually generate the turnout that other elections do.

But with groups across the state reporting millions of voter contacts, spending in the Supreme Court election eclipsing $40 million raising and the balance of the court at stake in the election, experts anticipate near-record turnout for a spring election.

“For a spring election, we’ve had wildly record-breaking ad spending and voter mobilization, voter contacts by both parties,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “There’s a limit to how much those things can boost turnout, but all the ingredients are there.”

More than 400,000 people in Wisconsin had already voted absentee as of Monday, according to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Wisconsin usually sees less than a million votes cast overall in off-year spring elections without a presidential primary. There are two outliers: the 2019 April election that saw 1.2 million ballots cast and the 2011 April election that saw 1.5 million.

Franklin, who has run the Marquette Law School Poll since its inception in 2012, predicts turnout for this election will fall somewhere between 1 million and 1.5 million votes.

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it go past 1.2 million but getting to 1.5 would be pretty exceptionally high turnout,” he said. “That said, we did set a record for turnout for the primary in February.”

More: What April's Supreme Court election may tell us about the 2024 partisan races in Wisconsin

What's on the ballot

The election will determine a new justice on the Supreme Court and other local offices like school boards and city and county government. The ballot will also have statewide and local referendums and a senate seat in the Milwaukee suburbs.

More: Wisconsin 2023 spring election: How to register, where to vote and what's on the ballot

In the Supreme Court race, liberal Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge Janet Protasiewicz is facing off against conservative former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly.

The court currently has a 4-3 conservative lean, and the new justice will replace conservative Patience Roggensack, who chose not to run for reelection.

The statewide referendums include a non-binding advisory referendum on work requirements for welfare benefits and a constitutional amendment split into two questions that would expand the criteria for setting cash bail.

Groups organize to boost turnout

Across the state political groups and parties reported making more than a million voter contacts, employing both traditional mobilizing efforts with newer technological strategies.

The Wisconsin GOP has made more than 1.5 million direct voter contacts, which includes things like knocking on doors, according to Mark Jefferson, the executive director of the Wisconsin GOP.

“When you include phone calls, when you include paid advertising and mail and the texting that goes on, it’s impossible to put a number on that,” Jefferson said. “The effort has dwarfed anything we’ve done in an April election.”

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin did not respond to a request for comment.

NextGen America, a liberal youth turnout organization, reported sending more than 1.1 million text messages to Wisconsinites ages 18 to 35.

“We’re seeing a young Wisconsin that’s more civically engaged than ever,” NextGen Press Secretary Kristi Johnston said, citing higher voter turnout in the February primary, particularly on college campuses.

The group had people on the ground at four college campuses across the state, but in the online world, NextGen started using dating apps to connect young people with voting resources, Johnston said.

The outcome of the Supreme Court race could carry vast policy stakes, from the fate of abortion rights to legislative maps. Republicans are banking on issues like redistricting and Act 10 to energize conservative voters, according to Jefferson.

“They know that all of the conservative reforms of the last generation are on the ballot,” Jefferson said.

For Souls to the Polls, a Milwaukee-based get-out-the-vote group, the future of voting maps and voting rights are the issues of most concern.

“The most significant item that I see is gerrymandering, but also just little stuff like drop boxes,” said Greg Lewis, executive director of Souls to the Polls. “People who don’t have the energy or who are ill or disabled can use drop boxes. They’re important especially for people who procrastinate and don’t get their absentee ballot in by the deadline.”

Last year, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority ruled that absentee ballot drop boxes are illegal.

With little time to organize following the November election, Souls to the Polls is focusing on people who have already voted, rather than first-time voters. The group had knocked on about 10,000 doors as of late March, according to Lewis.

“We want to get those people excited and coming back to the polls, people who voted in the last presidential election,” Lewis said. “We’re just asking them to understand the significance of putting people in place who will look out for their interests.”

Record-breaking spending and fundraising

Less than a week into the general election, the Supreme Court race had already shattered national records for spending.

Since then, campaign ads for and against each candidate have dominated Wisconsin television and websites.

The latest campaign finance reports show Protasiewicz’ campaign raised more than $13 million, and Kelly’s campaign raised more than $2.3 million. This doesn't include heavy spending from outside groups.

Though there hasn’t been polling on this specific race, Franklin said he thinks the message that the election can flip the ideological balance of the Supreme Court has gotten out.

“Looking to last November’s election, we certainly saw that abortion was a pretty important influence on the race in the Senate and governor’s races, and the fact that Protasiewicz is explicitly talking about abortion and redistricting in her campaign commercials and speeches certainly puts that issue front and center,” Franklin said.

Election day basics

Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. on election day. All eligible voters in line at 8 p.m. will be able to vote.

To see what is on your ballot specifically, check your voter registration and find your polling place, visit myvote.wi.gov.

To cast a ballot, a form of identification is required. Voters can bring a Wisconsin driver’s license, even if driving privileges are revoked or suspended; a Wisconsin Identification Card from the Department of Motor Vehicles, which are available for free; a military ID; or a U.S. passport.

In-person registration is available at polling places on election day. All voters must have proof of residency with their registration. Documents such as utility bills issued within the last 90 days; bank, credit union, credit card or mortgage statements; paychecks; and leases are accepted documents, among others.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Supreme Court race to lift voter turnout in Wisconsin 2023 election