The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Presented by McDonald’s — Biden celebrates Senate deal amid new grim economic numbers
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NEWS THIS MORNING
Honey, I Shrunk the Economy:
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk for the second-straight quarter this year, according to new data released by the Commerce Department.
How much?: GDP fell at a yearly pace of 0.9 percent. “Put simply, the U.S. economy would shrink by nearly 1 percent if the second quarter’s pace of growth lasted for an entire year.”
So, are we in a recession?: “Two straight quarters of negative economic growth have long been used as a rule of thumb to determine when the U.S. is in recession and is the formal threshold for a recession in other countries. But economists in the U.S. consider a broader range of data when determining if the U.S. is in recession.”
^ That broader range of data: “The U.S. has added 2.7 million jobs since the start of 2022 and consumer spending has continued to increase even amid high inflation. Economists say it may be too soon to know if the U.S. is in recession, if at all, given the strength of the job market.”
PRESIDENT BIDEN’S REACTION — LOOK OVER HERE!:
Instead of focusing on the grim news of a shrinking GDP and a potential recession, President Biden responded to this morning’s news by highlighting the strong job market.
Biden said in a statement: “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure. Our job market remains historically strong, with unemployment at 3.6% and more than 1 million jobs created in the second quarter alone. Consumer spending is continuing to grow.”
➤ ADDED TO BIDEN’S SCHEDULE LATE THIS MORNING:
President Biden delivered remarks on the reconciliation bill — or the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — at noon. Livestream
For context to Biden’s day yesterday: Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove pointed out, “Biden woke up [yesterday] in Covid isolation, awaiting a second negative test and a vote on the chips bill. [By last night, he was] out of isolation, the chips bill passed the Senate and he’s celebrating a deal between Manchin and Schumer on a major policy bill. Quite the day.”
➤ ‘HOW RECESSIONS HAUNTED THREE PRESIDENTS, AND HOW TWO OTHERS RECOVERED’:
Via The Hill’s Niall Stanage, “Here are five presidents who tried to navigate stormy economic seas — with very different results.”
The losers: President Hoover, President Carter and President George H.W. Bush
The winners: President Reagan and President Obama
Short explainers for each of the five
➤ ‘FIVE WAYS THE FED INTEREST RATE HIKE WILL IMPACT AMERICANS’ WALLETS’:
IT’S THURSDAY. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.
🍪 In Congress
No one move a muscle:
After what felt like decades of negotiating, centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) have finally reached a deal on a social spending reconciliation bill (!)
The gist of what’s in the bill — climate, health and taxes: “It would invest $369 billion in energy-focused climate programs over the next 10 years and $300 billion to reduce the deficit. It would be added to legislation to lower prescription drug prices and extend expiring health care subsidies.”
Keep in mind: It’s only a fraction of what progressive Democrats had envisioned, but the party will take this as a win. Manchin had been concerned about exacerbating inflation and was hesitant to many of the provisions Democrats had wanted.
Breakdown of what’s in the bill, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton
One-page summary of the deal: Screenshot from Reuters’ David Shepardson
Potential timing: CNN’s Manu Raju tweeted, “Assuming the bill is cleared by the parliamentarian to be approved along straight party lines in reconciliation, Senate Democrats may be able to get this bill approved by next week.”
Get excited: Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis tweeted, “Next week: VOTE-A-RAMA. Hope you all are as stoked as I am for an all-nighter of Senatorial madness.”
➤ LOBBYISTS REPRESENTING BIG CORPORATIONS ARE *NOT* HAPPY ABOUT THIS BILL:
Via The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom
➤ COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR DEMS — ANOTHER SENATOR HAS COVID:
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the No. 1 Democrat in the Senate, announced this morning that he tested positive for COVID-19. Durbin said he is experiencing “minor symptoms,” but this could complicate the Senate’s vote timing before August recess.
Every single lawmaker and lobbyist in Washington is looking at Kyrsten Sinema right now:
All of the attention has been on Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) hesitancy with proposals in Democrats’ reconciliation bill, but another senator could blow up the deal: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.)
In the 50-50 Senate, Democrats would need every Democrat on board.
What Sinema’s spokesperson said after the deal was announced, according to Axios: “We do not have a comment, as she will need to review the text.”
HuffPost’s Igor Bobic tweeted: “The number of lobbyists frantically trying to reach Sinema’s office now must be unreal.”
It’s funny how that happened:
Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman rattled off the timing, “So McConnell and [R]epublicans said they wouldn’t pass chips if reconciliation was alive. They passed chips. Dems revived reconciliation hours after chips passed.”
^ So, now: House Republican leadership is urging its members to vote against the CHIPS-Plus bill to encourage domestic semiconductor production.
Can Democrats pass the semiconductor bill without Republican support?: “When asked Wednesday if Democrats have enough votes to pass the semiconductor bill alone if Republicans were to oppose the measure, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told The Hill, ‘I hope so.’”
So, there’s that.
The full back and forth, via The Hill’s Mychael Schnell and Emily Brooks
🦠 Latest with COVID
➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS
Cases to date: 90.6 million
Death toll: 1,023,382
Current hospitalizations: 37,531
Shots administered: 601 million
Fully vaccinated: 67.2 percent of Americans
🐥Notable tweets
This made me laugh:
Elon Musk tweeted, “A new philosophy of the future is needed. I believe it should be curiosity about the Universe – expand humanity to become a multiplanet, then interstellar, species to see what’s out there.”
USA Today’s Rex Huppke responded: “Sir, there are several people behind you in line, could you please place your order?”
⏱On tap
The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Washington, D.C. Vice President Harris is in New York.
8:30 a.m.: Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
9:30 a.m.: Biden received the President’s Daily Briefing.
11:30 a.m.: First House votes. Today’s House agenda
11:35 a.m.: Harris left for New York City.
1:30 p.m.: Harris tours the Bedford Stuyvesant Restoration Corporation Economic Solutions Center.
1:45 p.m.: The Senate holds a confirmation vote. Today’s Senate agenda
3:25 p.m.: Harris delivers remarks on investment in underserved communities, financial institutions and small businesses.
4:40 p.m.: Harris travels to Water Mill, N.Y.
5 p.m.: Last House votes.
6:50 p.m.: Harris speaks at a finance event.
8 p.m.: Harris returns to Washington, D.C.
All times Eastern.
📺What to watch
Noon: Biden delivered remarks on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Livestream
2:15 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on the economy and meets with CEOs to discuss the economy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Cecilia Rouse, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, attend. Livestream
3:15 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds a press briefing. Livestream
🍫 In lighter news
Today is National Milk Chocolate Day.
Sprite is ditching its iconic green bottle:
Coca-Cola Co. announced this morning that it will transition to a clear bottle for Sprite in an effort to be more sustainable. The full story from NBC News’ Marlene Lenthang
And to leave you with a smile, here’s a very tired puppy after a long day.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
