TALK OF THE MORNING

Dems worry their ‘hot girl summer’ is over

With the midterm elections officially three (!) weeks away, some Democrats are squirming in their seats wondering if the party’s summer momentum boost came a little too soon.

Democrats saw their midterm outlooks rise this summer after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, even more so following unexpected wins in some special congressional races. The enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act, inflation temporarily cooling off and gas prices falling helped, also.

But now, The Hill’s Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano report, that summer boost appears to be fading.

The poll that has everyone talking: A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday found that Republicans have a slight edge of Democrats on the congressional ballot, 49 percent to 45 percent. That’s a change from September, when the same poll had Democrats ahead of Republicans by one percentage point.

Some analysts say Democrats’ loss of momentum has to do with recent changes in the political landscape, including accelerating inflation and gas prices ticking up again. According to the Times/Siena poll, 44 percent of voters see the economy as the country’s top issue, compared to just 36 percent in July.

And as Brett and Alex note, focus on other domestic issues, including abortion, student loans and gun violence — which Democrats are enthusiastic to talk about — have cooled down since this summer, as economy remains a prime concern.

➤ HOW’S THE OTHER SIDE FEELING?

As Democrats worry about the current midterm playing field, Republicans are seizing on the shifting momentum.

The Hill’s Emily Brooks reports that Republicans are “feeling better” about the margin by which they can take the House and their chances of securing control of the Senate.

The reason: The effect stubborn annual inflation numbers are having on President Biden and Democrats.

It’s Tuesday. I’m Mychael Schnell, filling in for Cate today with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up.

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In Congress

Will she stay or will she go? Pelosi edition

As the midterm elections inch closer, more and more onlookers are wondering what Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) plans are for the next Congress. Will the top Democrat, now 82, remain in the chamber and serve for another term, or does she bow out after votes are counted next month?

According to The Hill’s Mike Lillis, the answer could hinge on how House Democrats perform in the November midterm elections.

Pelosi, who has led the Democrats for 19 of her 35 years in Congress, made a promise in 2018 that this year would be her last as Speaker of the House. She made the vow to shore up support for a Speaker bid from about 20 Democratic detractors. And the deal bore fruit for the California Democrat, giving her the gavel for another term.

But if Pelosi and Democrats pull off the virtually impossible task in November and keep control of the House — which is unexpected in many election forecasts — some lawmakers on the left say Pelosi will keep her top spot on the chamber.

“If she wins, she stays,” said Rep. Ron Kind (D), a retiring Wisconsin moderate who had opposed Pelosi’s Speakership in 2018. “If she doesn’t, I think there will be a serious discussion as far as what succession looks like then.”

➤ DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH FOR ANY HINTS FROM PELOSI HERSELF

During a press conference in September, right before the House broke for an extended recess ahead of the midterms, the Speaker was asked if she intends to be a member of the new Congress as Speaker or minority leader.

“I’m strictly focused on winning the next election. Do you want to talk about that? OK, is that your question? Who’s next?” Pelosi shot back.

More on “one of Washington’s most enduring parlor games” from Mike, here.

On the Campaign Trail

Strategists say don’t hit snooze on these four ‘sleeper races’

When it comes to conversations about Senate midterm elections, onlookers have focused on contentious races in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.

But The Hill’s Alex Bolton spoke with strategists from both sides of the aisle who are also calling attention to contests in North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and Washington, warning that those “sleeper races” could have unexpected outcomes that determine party control in the chamber next year.

In North Carolina, Rep. Ted Budd (R), who is backed by former President Trump, is running against former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, a Democrat. Beasley far out-raised Budd in the third quarter, $13.3 million to $4.77 million.

In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for a third term against moderate Republican Joe O’Dea. The race has drawn attention in recent days after O’Dea said he would “actively” campaign against Trump in 2024.

In Florida, Rep. Val Demings (D) is challenging Sen. Marco Rubio (R) for a seat he has held since 2011. The two candidates are slated to go head-to-head tonight, which some strategists say could be a determining factor in the race.

In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray (D) is fighting for another term against Republican Tiffany Smiley. The GOP candidate outraised the incumbent by almost two times in the third quarter, $6 million to $3.6 million. The two candidates are set to debate later this month.

➤ DID SOMEONE SAY DEBATES?

Monday was debate night in America, where candidates in three states went head-to-head with less than a month to go before the midterms.

Miss them? The Hill’s campaign team has you covered with five takeaways from the Georgia governor’s debate, Ohio Senate debate and the Utah Senate debate.

➤ VOTING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY

According to ABC News, more than 2 million people have already voted in 2022 general elections.

The outlet cited data analyzed by the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project.

McCarthy says no ‘blank check’ for Ukraine

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is poised to secure the Speaker’s gavel should Republicans take control of the lower chamber next month, is warning that the GOP conference will not write “a blank check” for Ukraine if they are in the majority.

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News in an interview published Tuesday.

“It’s not a free blank check. And then there’s the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically. Not doing the border and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check,” he added.

The U.S. has already spent $60 billion in economic and military aid since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February, Punchbowl News noted. But in recent days, strikes from Moscow have knocked out power for a third of Ukraine.

Emily Brooks has more on McCarthy’s comments and their implications.

➤ A GREENE ULTIMATUM

As McCarthy eyes the speaker’s gavel, firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is making her requests for the potential leader known.

“I think that to be the best speaker of the House and to please the base, he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway,” Greene told The New York Times Magazine in a profile looking at the Republican’s influence and future.

“And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be very unhappy about it. I think that’s the best way to read that. And that’s not in any way a threat at all. I just think that’s reality,” she added.

More from Emily, here.

Latest with COVID

Damning report: Trump interfered with CDC

The House select subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis dropped a damning report on Monday, revealing that the Trump administration regularly interfered with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) process for crafting and publishing guidance regarding COVID-19.

Those efforts included altering scientific reports and undermining top public health officials, according to the select subcommittee, which cited interviews and emails and documents obtained by the group.

The panel said the efforts were made to “compromise the scientific integrity” of the CDC’s coronavirus response “in an attempt to serve the former President’s political goals.”

More from The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel.

Notable tweets

Another prop brought to the debate stage

The hottest new club candidates are hitting before debates is… the prop store.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who is running in a competitive reelection race against Independent Evan McMullin, pulled a pocket-sized Constitution from his jacket and hoisted on stage during Monday evening’s contentious debate. That was days after Georgia GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker whipped out a sheriff’s badge onstage at his debate.

Lee pulled the age-old prop out during a question regarding the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. McMullin quickly fired back at Lee on stage.

“Senator Lee, it is not a prop,” McMullin said, which led Lee to raise the document in the air.

Here’s clip of the buzzy moment in the Beehive State, courtesy of C-SPAN. Watch

Swalwell releases abortion ‘Lock Her Up’ ad

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) released an ad on Monday titled “Lock Her Up,” which portrays a woman getting arrested in front of her family for having an abortion.

The spot, paid for by Eric Swalwell for Congress, comes months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and amid conversations regarding abortion bans on Capitol Hill.

Watch the ad on Swalwell’s Twitter account here, which already has 1.4 million views.

On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, D.C. Vice President Harris is in San Francisco.

• 8:10 p.m.: Harris delivers remarks at a Democratic National Committee finance event at a private residence

• 9:25 p.m.: Harris departs San Francisco for Washington, D.C.

All times Eastern.

What to watch

• 11 a.m.: Georgia Secretary of State candidates debated. Watch

• 12:15 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks during about abortion at the Howard Theatre. Livestream

• 1 p.m.: Defense Department briefing. Livestream

• 1:45 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs. Livestream

• 2 p.m.: State Department briefing. Livestream

• 6:15 p.m.: Harris speaks with hosts of climate podcast “A Matter of Degrees” for a moderated discussion. Livestream

• 7 p.m.: Florida Senate debate. Livestream

• 7 p.m.: Vermont Governor debate. Livestream
  
  

In lighter news

Today is National Chocolate Cupcake Day.

And to brighten your Tuesday, watch this pup make a new friend.

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com and follow along on Twitter and Facebook. See you tomorrow!

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.